The Fickle Nature of MLB: Paddack vs Kershaw Subverted Expectations
San Diego Padres ace Paddack faced off against Clayton Kershaw in a 6-3 Los Angeles Dodgers victory. What went wrong for Paddack? What went right for Kershaw?
Baseball is unpredictable and fickle. One tends to find difficulty in predicting outcomes of singular games, especially in terms of a pitching matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw versus the San Diego Padres and Chris Paddack‘s matchup was among the countless examples.
Tuesday night signaled the start to a series between two divisional opponents that will be in competition for the NL West title all season. The Padres came to Chavez Ravine for a quick two-game series against the Dodgers, before they return to San Diego for a four-game set against the Pirates.
The initial series between the two clubs was in San Diego two weeks ago. That series featured an overall series victory for the Dodgers, however, the Padres claimed the last laugh with a dramatic walk-off grand slam by Hunter Renfroe off of all-star closer Kenley Jansen. Thus, the stage was set for a contentious and interesting series.
The series was set to begin with the respective ace of each club’s staff. Chris Paddack– the up and coming rookie right-hander- was going for the Padres, while the veteran Clayton Kershaw was slated to be on the hill for the Dodgers. Many were excited for the matchup of stellar starters.
A note on the approaches
The two pitchers have vastly different approaches, while at the same time they were both intent on ruthlessly attacking the zone. Paddack features a Vulcan change-up, curveball, and a four-seam fastball as the main pitches at his disposal. Meanwhile, Kershaw’s repertoire consists of a variety of pitches, most notably a slow curveball, a slider, and a four-seam fastball.
Paddack attacked the zone in a vertical fashion, attempting to use his slow change-up to counteract the long swings of the Dodgers lineup. After peppering the lower half of the strike zone he could use his fastball up in the zone or vice versa. The slow pitches low preceding the high fastball would slow down the bat speed of the Dodgers batters, while the reverse- setting up low change-ups with high fastballs- would speed up the bats and get them out in front of the ball.
Kershaw does not have the velocity he once did, so he attempted to work the batters horizontally. He began by setting up with his slow breaking balls to the outside corner, sometimes even using his fastball or slider to steal an early strike, and finishing batters off by attacking the inside corner. This worked in his favor throughout the game as he induced much weak contact on ground balls from these inside pitches.
The Results
Paddack was not nearly as successful because he was inefficiently wild within the strike zone. He was unable to finish batters off, something he has done with ease and regularity throughout the early season. His pitches missed locations in the zone allowing hard contact upon the second and third turns through the Dodgers order.
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Joc Pederson launched a bullet of a home run to open the scoring against Paddack. The 410-foot shot came off of a fastball that remained in the center of the strike zone, while Paddack obviously intended to get it above the belt where Pederson would more likely swing through the ball. The exit velocity on the ball was recorded to be 109 mph with a launch angle of 19.65 degrees.
The other sizeable mistake of Paddack’s outing was surrendering an opposite-field blast to Cody Bellinger on a change-up that stayed very flat. He was unsuccessful in finishing Bellinger off after getting to a 2 strike count. The 409-foot homer had an exit velocity of 105 mph and a launch angle of 23.05 degrees.
He was not offered much assistance by his defenders either. Manny Machado made a throwing error on a simple ground ball to shortstop by Austin Barnes. This error allowed three of the six Dodger runs to be counted as unearned. A quizzical play by Eric Hosmer saw a Corey Seager ground ball somehow get passed him down the line for a double, a runner that eventually scored. Normally he would be able to knock such a grounder down.
Kershaw was not perfect either, however, he experienced far more success than his counterpart. He also surrendered home run shots to Franmil Reyes and Manny Machado. The respective home runs were 419 and 441 feet with exit velocities of 106 mph and 112 mph. These two accounted for the only San Diego runs and were both the result of sliders that did not break enough and hung on the outside part of the plate.
Final Thoughts
The game was an ultimately exciting one with quick pivots and lead changes within the first few innings. Yet, it was nowhere near the pitching matchup that it was purported to be.
A 6-3 Dodgers victory furthers their grip upon the division to five games above the Padres and four and a half games above the Diamondbacks. A long season is still unfolding and the victor will not be determined any time soon.
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The final game of the shortened series will see Matt Strahm and Kenta Maeda face off.