How might the Reds turn their season around?

By simply glancing at the Cincinnati Reds station in their division one will see them sitting in last place and dismiss it as a continuation of last season. Yet, this club is much-improved, personnel-wise, and other statistics might indicate trends to the contrary.

The Cincinnati Reds sit 6.5 games behind the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs with a record of 20-24. However, a closer analysis of their situation reveals that their +31 run differential would place them just behind the Cubs in their division and the Dodgers in the entire National League. So, how could the third best team in terms of run differential be in last place in their own division?

According to the expected win totals of the NL Central, the current standings should be the Cubs at the top, the Reds just behind them, then the Cardinals and Brewers tied, and finally the Pirates in a distant last. The Cubs would have a slim 1.5 game lead on the Reds and 3.5 on both the Cardinals and Brewers, while the Pirates sit at a sizeable 11 game deficit.

This could very possibly indicate a trend towards the positive for the Reds and negative for the Pirates, as the run differential and expected records correlate almost to a tee. In a way, it basically shows that luck plays a factor in early season totals as teams are rounding into form.

Note: All of the stats compiled for this article are up to date as of May 17, 2019.