Christian Yelich versus Cody Bellinger: Who is the better player?

It is only May and it has very clearly been whittled down to just a two-man race for National League MVP. But who between Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger has the edge over the other?

Who is your National League MVP? Cody Bellinger or Christian Yelich?

At this point in the season, you could even argue that both should win it; making it the first time two players were awarded MVP since 1979 when Willie Stargell and Keith Hernandez shared the distinction.

But as time passes, certainly one of them will fade behind the other right? Well given Yelich’s late-season surge for the hardware just last year, I’m hesitant to believe that either of the two will face a true collapse statistically.

So if it comes down to Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, will the voters split right down the middle? There is a chance.

But if you could only choose one of the two, who has the edge?

Let’s break it into a couple of categories; somewhat close to the five tools – contact, power, speed, fielding, and arm strength – but also take a deeper dive at some of their stats, as well as their contribution to their current clubs.

Hitting Ability

You knew it would be tough to differentiate the two. You had to figure it would be within the first category.

I mean heck that’s why we’re talking about these two right? Cody Bellinger would be sporting the league triple crown right now if Christian Yelich wasn’t hitting bombs left and right.

So let’s break it down.

Bellinger this season is slashing .404/.487/.783, which entering Wednesday leads the entire league.

Add to it 43 runs, 44 RBI and 17 home runs to help cement his argument in this context. His strikeout to walk ratio is actually really close to one; currently at 28:29.

Yelich has just as much of an argument at the plate. His slash line is .325/.440/.732 which is well above the league average; let alone the NL average.

He is dominating the home run category with 19 through just a month and a half. That is more than half as many as he hit all last season.

Yelich just as efficient in the strikeout to walk ratio as well currently at 34:30.

While it is easy to declare a runaway favorite here, don’t consider Yelich inferior because the numbers are smaller. He can still hit dingers, and if Giancarlo Stanton‘s 2017 MVP taught us anything, people love dingers.

In the end, it has to be Bellinger in this fight.

Winner: Cody Bellinger

Fielding Ability

At this rate, Bellinger might be the next Ben Zobrist given his positional depth. Normally, however, Yelich and Bellinger man the same position of right field.

Bellinger this year has played both right field and first base, and both he has played to success.

Despite an error while in right this season, Bellinger has been pivotal in every chance, with 11 defensive runs saved as well as seven defensive assists; five from the outfield.

While Bellinger has not had any discussions around him regarding a gold glove award, it’s hard to classify a guy who has played multiple positions in just two seasons. His contributions in center field last season, however, propelled him into the conversation. He has continued that push this season.

Yelich is no stranger to fielding’s best award. He received his first and only gold glove in 2014 and was even nominated last season.

But is he continuing that this year?

In 41 games, Yelich has three outfield assists and two of them have led to double plays. He also has three defensive runs saved from all over the outfield.

Yelich is on the same pace as last year, if not doing slightly better defensively than last year.

Between the two, we have a couple of above average fielders. Bellinger plays two pivotal positions on the right side of the field, while Yelich has covered the entire outfield.

I’d be more lenient to Bellinger if his one error was at first base, however, and not in right field.

Winner: Christian Yelich

Analytics

So I did just dump a ton of analytics on you in the past couple slides, but this one will primarily be statistics like WAR and player value and stats I am going to try to comprehend.

Let’s get the easy one out of the way; WAR.

Wins Above Replacement is defined as the number of wins this player gives their team in contrast to the replacement player in said position.

Bellinger has a WAR of 4.7 while Christian Yelich is at 3.0. Both are great WAR numbers as both players, of course, provide more wins than their replacement.

The scale is as such: eight or higher is MVP caliber, five or more is an all-star, 2 or more should be the starter, 0-2 is a reserve player and below zero is a replacement.

So both are performing at near all-star level and leading the MVP race. Bellinger is currently first place in the WAR category while Yelich is fourth.

In terms of player value, these are the numbers that set apart Yelich and Bellinger from the average player.

Batting value, fielding value, and baserunning value will be the numbers we’ll evaluate here.

Bellinger is at 32.8, 4.9 and 0.5. Yelich is at 22.7, 1.3 and 1.7.

Those numbers are all relative to runs in each game. So for example, batting is park runs adjusted above the average player.

There is a clear favorite according to the analytics, despite Yelich not being far behind.

Winner: Cody Bellinger

Team Player

This one might be the toughest category because there is no true way to look at this statistically.

Yes we know what they have done at the plate and in the field but the person they are in the clubhouse means just as much.

Think about where these two hit in their batting order; Yelich hits second and Bellinger hits fourth.

Those are some very trustworthy spots in the order because both are more than likely to hit in the first inning and will be responsible to get their teams going.

Christian Yelich sits right behind Lorenzo Cain, who gets on base 33% of the time. Cain has also scored 32 runs as a result of getting on base. Yelich has some big responsibility in that.

Bellinger hits behind guys like Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and even Joc Pederson.

There’s a reason Bellinger leads the league in RBI and it’s because those players are on base for him to bring them home.

Both are young – Bellinger 23 and Yelich 27 – so both have plenty of time left to continue the contributions they’re making. The rate at which Bellinger is producing though is too far ahead for Yelich however. Bellinger does have the advantage of more people ahead of him, but if he wasn’t taking advantage of that, it would be Yelich getting the nod here.

Winner: Cody Bellinger

Results

Cody Bellinger – 4

Christian Yelich – 1

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This was tough in general, but determining the better player was easier than I expected. Honestly, Bellinger was close enough to a full sweep of all the categories but Yelich does have an edge in a couple of aspects.

Regardless, it’s going to be a fun rest of the season watching these two go at the top, individual prize in the league. It will be even more fun if these two clubs meet in the playoffs again.

If you want to watch specific things for each player, there are two statistics to keep close to; one for each player.

Bellinger is currently the only player hitting above .400. No one has done that since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941. Tony Gwynn was the next closest when he hit .394 in 1994.

Yelich on the other side of things is just one homer away from 20, 16 fewer than his last season total when he nearly swept the triple crown out from under everyone in the National League.

If he played a total of 162 games, he could hit as many as 70 home runs – assuming my terrible math is correct. That would put him three shy of the single-season record of 73 by Barry Bonds.

It’s going to be a fun season regardless and many fun seasons to come for both Yelich and Bellinger.