MLB Draft: Prospect Carter Stewart picks Japan

MLB Draft Prospect Carter Stewart has opted to sign with a Japanese professional team instead of MLB. It is a fascinating decision with lots of implications

The MLB Draft is right around the corner and it will be moving forward without one of the more polarizing arms.  Per Ken Rosenthal, RHP Carter Stewart decided that instead of waiting his turn to be drafted that he would be taking his talents to Japan.  More specifically, he will be pitching for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.  Per Jeff Passan, Stewart will be receiving a $7M guarantee to pitch in Japan’s highest level of baseball.

For background, Carter Stewart was drafted eighth overall by the Braves in 2018 out of a Florida High School.  When the Braves found issues with Stewart’s medicals, they tried to cut an underslot deal with him.  Stewart held firm and ultimately did not sign with the Braves.  He enrolled at Eastern Florida State College, a JUCO in his hometown, and intended to re-enter the 2019 MLB draft still seeking a hefty bonus.

This is a fascinating deal and path for Stewart to take, one that amateurs, fans, and MLB teams should follow closely.  As mentioned, Stewart is getting a $7M dollar bonus and will likely be pushed right into the Hawks’ rotation.  Usually, a player heads to Japan to revitalize their career or cash in on a payday or playing time opportunity not available in the MLB.  This represents the first time any draft prospect, let alone one this highly regarded, is choosing to go overseas in lieu of signing with an MLB team.

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Stewart is a young right-handed pitcher a year removed from high school when he was drafted.  That particular demographic has been the most volatile assets in all of baseball.  For every Clayton Kershaw drafted, there is a Tyler Kolek who flames out and fails to deliver on their first-round promise.

Carter Stewart’s case does have some similarities to that of NBA player Brandon Jennings.  A decade ago, Jennings decided to sign a professional contract in Europe instead of playing int he NCAA and then enter his draft once he gained eligibility.  Jennings was ultimately drafted by the Milwaukee Bucks tenth overall in the following draft.  Many thought that could start a trend of top basketball prospects going overseas for a year but Jennings proved to be an exception rather than a movement.

Stewart has secured himself his first major payday.  As a 19-year-old pitcher, he would be facing innings caps, competition, and the need to perform in the minors.  Best case scenario, he makes the big leagues at 22 and makes league minimum until he reaches arbitration around 25, then free agency at 28.  If you consider the $7M to be his “bonus”, he is receiving the fourth largest sum ever among draft bonuses.  While the final contract structure and language needs to be read, this deal will allow him to become a free agent at 25 and sign with any MLB team.  It seems that Stewart has made the best decision for him financially and possibly from a development point as well.

The last thing to touch on is the fact that Stewart will be in a competitive environment where winning comes first and he’ll have to develop on the fly.  He won’t be having to move around the minor league levels from short-season Florida to low A Iowa to Texas, taking 10-hour bus rides, eating less than nutritious food, and the other struggles of the minor leagues (even receiving a million dollar bonus).  I am not sure how he intrinsically values that, but it likely played a factor in his decision making.

So Carter Stewart is going to Japan for 6 years to begin his professional baseball career.  Eventually, he will likely pitch in the USA but for now, he is taking the path never traveled.  If he has his success, he could forge a new path and create more competition for American players.  This is a good deal for Stewart who gets more money up front than he would have in the MLB draft and gets one heck of a cultural experience getting to play professionally in Japan.  It will be fascinating to watch this unfold.