MLB teams focus on innings limits for their younger pitchers. It is the wrong metric to focus on.
As MLB teams look to protect their young arms, they focus on capping their innings as they progress through the ranks. In theory, it makes sense – the fewer innings, the less wear and tear should be on those arms as they get used to the rigors of professional ball. Those limits can extend into the first major league season, and possibly into a second or third, depending on the player’s injury history.
And so, as the season wears on, questions will get louder about when teams will shut down their prized prospects or young arms. Players like Chris Paddack and Mike Soroka may not pitch much in September, if they even take the mound at all. A postseason berth is not nearly as important as managing those arms, and keeping those innings down as far as possible.
However, the innings count, by definition, is flawed. Teams are keeping track of how many outs a pitcher has recorded over the course of the season, feeling that is the best way to limit the wear on those arms. Instead, it makes more sense to track the number of hitters that pitcher has faced.
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Let’s take Paddack as an example. In his nine starts, he has accumulated 51.1 innings. Based on a 30 start season, he would be expected to pitch approximately 170 innings at his current pace. Considering that Paddack threw only 90 innings last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, that is a sharp increase.
In contrast, Paddack faced 340 batters last season as he dominated in the minors. While he has been equally sharp this year, he has already faced 195 hitters. If he continues at his current pace, he would face approximately 650 batters, which is not a high total at all. Of course, that is based on his current production.
Obviously, Paddack is going to have his struggles along the way. Likewise, the Padres will look to skip a start every so often, and have already gone to a six man rotation. Given the Braves litany of pitching prospects, it would not be a surprise if they did the same.
Those future struggles, be it with Paddack, Soroka, or any other top young arm that a team would look to maximize, make that innings cap a more difficult proposition. Not every inning is created equal – a pitcher could face three batters, or they could face eight. Or, really, any number is possible. Yet, it is that measure of outs, instead of the number of batters faced, that MLB teams focus on.
There is a better way to determine how much a pitcher has thrown than by using the number of outs recorded. Determining how many batters that pitcher has faced is a better idea of how far to build those arms up.