Phillies: NL East coast-to-coast bias
Even though coasting to the divisional pennant isn’t realistic, the Phillies faithful have a preference for an easy path to October; however, the franchise hasn’t played one postseason inning since 2011.
Roller coaster:
Granted, a Philadelphia Phillies loss stings more than most victories feel euphoric. But today’s expensive talent and MLB rules to advance parity are producing more teams with a competitive opportunity and the extinction of dynasties.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Consistent motivation usually comes from a consuming desire to be able to perform at your best under pressure, namely, the pressure produced by tough competition.” – Bill Walsh
Past the quarter mark seasonwise, the Fightins are in first place despite their shortcomings and divisional competition. That stated, some natives are restless due to finances and rules every organization must negotiate to assemble a contending team. Translation: no easy fixes.
Committing an additional $488 million maxes out even a deep-pocketed organization. Spending-wise, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers combined have won one Fall Classic since 2008. And the Boston Red Sox exceeded the Luxury Tax limit for their title by an unsustainable $40 million for 2018’s top tax rate.
Regarding changes, the MLB instituted the Rule 4 Draft in 1965 for clubs to pick first in inverse order of their record. However, free-agency’s addition led to the competitive-balance threshold in 1997. Plus it has increased many times since. Now, Boston’s tax rate for 2019 has discouraged their spending.
As for the playoffs, the League Championship Series initiated in 1969 meant defeating two franchises, not one. And 1995’s League Division Series added a third team to beat. But because a hot wild-card entrant had frequently appeared in the Fall Classic, the owners instituted the Wild Card Game.
Concerning divisional competition, the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals have roster holes, injuries, replacement players, and underperforming stars. But the four organizations are only a winning or losing streak away from changing the standings.
If the Phils are in first place for the entire 162, it removes the dramatic ups and downs, but hard-fought victories will prepare the players for October’s toughest challenges. In the past, they had experienced peaks and valleys in 1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, 2008 and 2009; but they coasted in 1993 and 2011 (franchise record).
Coaster ride:
Finishing first at 90-62 by seven games, the 1915 Phillies were mostly in second from May 28 through July 12. Totalwise, they were atop the National League for 139 days. That stated, locals probably cheered on their first NL entrant all summer and were happy just to be in the hunt.
In ’50, the Whiz Kids had their first taste at the top on May 11, but it was a six-club competition early on. Even so, the faithful appreciated the shot at a pennant because Philly’s last Fall Classic had been in 1931. And gradually the Fightins opened up a 7.5-game lead on Sept.17 with an 87-54 record.
But going 3-9 from Sept. 18 to their final contest whittled their advantage down to one game. Also, the season-ending 154th was an away affair against the second-place Brooklyn Dodgers. And a loss would have produced a tie atop the NL and a game 155. For good measure, it took 10 innings to capture the Senior Circuit flag.
Winning their first World Series, the ’80 Phils prevailed in early October with a 91-71 record, but they had mostly been in second or third place. In fact, they were a half game out on Oct. 1 behind the Montreal Expos (now the Washington Nationals). And they were only atop the division for 25 days.
Like Hector Neris in any role, Ron Reed was the setup man the faithful dreaded, but they had pennant fever despite the standings. Regardless, the cardiac kids went from six out on Aug. 11 (56-52) to a one-game lead after a solid 162. But locals preferred these highs and lows to waiting for another year.
With core pieces from 1980 and the Big Red Machine, the 1983 squad –to our surprise– won the NL East by six games at 90-72 including 74 days in first. The Wheeze Kids had spent most of the summer in the top three spots but were in first place from Sept. 14 on. Yes, these wily veterans were playing for their last hurrah.
First-place fever:
The last-to-first Phillies of ’93 were a patched-together group following a 70-92 campaign with a bottled-lightning 97-65. As for a coast-to-coast 162, these lovable misfits were atop the division for all but one day: April 9. Yes, 181 days in first! And they almost pulled off even winning it all!
Regarding the ’08 champions, they went 92-70 and spent 95 days in first place. They were in first or second through Sept. 19. Again, no one complained about not being atop the division from day one because the squad was working their way up to this crescendo.
With the exception of Cole Hamels, the other core members are no longer active. Eight years ago, they were setting the organizational record with 102 triumphs. And now they only look like they could still compete.
Before ’09, Hamels cut his offseason regimen short to meet the demands on his time: the rubber chicken circuit. Regardless, the red pinstripes were in first place from May 30 through season’s end. Of course, the acquisition of Cliff Lee to head the rotation was for the stretch drive and beyond.
They finished at 93-69 with 141 days atop the division because the other stars and Lee picked up Hamels during his off year. However, adding to a championship team had the downside fans are experiencing today. Goliath and expectations had grown, but 2019’s spending has revived that cerebral monster.
In 2011, April 26 was the only day the Fightins were in second place during their record-setting 102-60. Yes, they were atop the NL East for 180 days and finished 13 games ahead of the pack. But today’s front office had acquired stars for a blossoming roster, not a formidable one: a major difference missed by many.
Quarter mark:
With the Phillies atop the division, some locals are looking over their shoulder and worrying about every club except the Miami Marlins. And other fans in this four-team race are voicing similar concerns. So, enjoy the ride from start to finish despite the turbulence of things going wrong.
In fourth place at 19-31, Washington seemed to hover near .500 in recent years. Now, they have the worse NL bullpen with only closer Sean Doolittle being dependable, so they will have difficulty winning many close contests. But don’t count them out completely despite their glaring weakness.
As for the 24-25 Mets, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard aren’t having the envisioned starts they hoped for, and the team can’t rely on the same dependable relievers to bridge the gap to Edwin Diaz, their young standout closer. Plus they are 14th in NL errors. Hitting-wise, their bats are streaky like most franchises.
The Braves are 28-23 and trying to defend their NL East crown, but their hurlers are questionable. On their staff, Mike Foltynewicz has struggled, they demoted one closer, and the other had undergone campaign-ending surgery. Ergo, they won’t be able to repeat with hitting, defense and questionable pitching.
As for the 29-21 Phils, their rotation after Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta has received encouraging outings from Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Meanwhile, the red pinstripes have the third-ranked NL pen despite missing pieces. And J.T. Realmuto has contributed his experienced game-calling.
Keep in mind, the 2011 Fightins were the 2008 team with three more aces. And this current group is the 2018 squad plus increased offense and defense in their first campaign headed to the big dance. So, what should you do with towering expectations? Temper them!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats through May 20.
Overall NL ERA:
- Phillies: 4th with a 3.91 ERA.
- Braves: 9th with a 4.28 ERA.
- Mets: 12th with a 4.48 ERA.
- Nationals: 14th with a 4.87 ERA.
NL Starters ERA:
- Phillies: 7th with a 3.99 ERA.
- Nationals: 8th with a 4.05 ERA.
- Braves: 10th with a 4.12 ERA.
- Mets: 13th with a 4.64 ERA.
NL Relievers ERA:
- Phillies: 3rd with a 3.79 ERA.
- Mets: 9th with a 4.24 ERA.
- Braves: 11th with a 4.51 ERA.
- Nationals: 15th with a 6.46 ERA.
NL Runs Scored:
- Braves: 6th with 235.
- Phillies: 7th with 234.
- Nationals: 9th with 204.
- Mets: 10th with 209.
NL Errors:
- Braves: 5th with 24.
- Phillies: 10th with 30.
- Nationals: 11th with 32.
- Mets: 14th with 35.
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