San Diego Padres ace Chris Paddack’s great performance has left us wondering if his underlying stats back up his performance.
Chris Paddack was traded to the San Diego Padres for Fernando Rodney from Miami Marlins that wanted to enhance their bullpen when they believed they could compete with the core players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Cristian Yelich.
It did not work out, however, and Rodney was demolished, posting a 5.89 ERA for the rest of season that year. Paddack also went under the knife after he injured his shoulder, which cost him nearly more than a year to get back to pitching.
His post-Tommy-John surgery numbers still look outstanding and everybody was excited to see him in the show. Finally, he received the call and enjoys the opportunity to show his ability to be dominant in the big league.
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Currently, the San Diego Padres phenom holds 1.93 ERA with a 56:11 K to BB ratio over 51.1 IP. His performance has been amazing for San Diego fans who have endured a boring rebuilding period for a long time. It’s now questionable to see if his underlying stats back up his current performance.
In the minors, Paddack was mostly known for his change-up. In MLB, he has also proven that his change-up is a lethal weapon as well, generating an eye-popping 19.05% whiff rate against opposing hitters.
His fastball plays a big role in posting stupendous numbers. Hitters whiff 12.33% against his fastball. Fangraphs.com grades his fastball value as 8.3.
His other strength is pinpoint control. His heatmap is well-established around the zone and indicates how good his command and control is.
What raises eyebrows is his curveball. His curveball has been merely a third pitch ever since he debuted in the majors. He has thrown it 81 times and only generates 3.7% whiff rate with his third pitch.
(From Brooksbaseball.com)
His pitch usage shows that he heavily relies on two pitches especially when a hitter is ahead in the count. It’s our consensus that two-pitch pitcher cannot survive in the major because hitters would adjust more quickly since two-pitch pitcher’s repertoire is simpler. Paddack’s below average curve would drag him from moving forward in the near future unless there’s a dramatic improvement.
He is also giving up too many contacts that it cannot back up the argument that he’s dominant as his numbers indicate. Compared to MLB average stats, he doesn’t look stand out.
It’s now clear that there is some regression ahead for him. Also, a lack of third pitch would be a huge problem for him to be dominant as now.
There have been two-pitch pitchers that have some successful career, they all fluctuate throughout their career. After his magnificent performance for two months, he increased our expectation of him.
It’s only San Diego Padres pitcher Chris Paddack’s first season that there’s still probability for him to improve his third pitch. It would be interesting to see how he would overcome upcoming regression to advance to the next level.