In week-8 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the 10 most game-critical base hits in MLB from May 19 through May 25 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
It was a great week for the downtrodden. In fact, in this week’s “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits, of the 10 of the most impactful base hits delivered during the past week, nine were struck in the name of teams that are carrying losing records.
Teams laboring in the NL East were particularly fortunate; five of the 10 biggest hits were delivered for that division’s sub-.500 teams, the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, and New York Mets.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called new stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
This week’s countdown also establishes that a hit needn’t be delivered to the seats to be a back-breaker. Four of the hits in this week’s top 10 stayed in play. While it’s true that six of the top 10 were home runs, one was a single, two were doubles and the other a triple.
The one element they do have in common is timeliness. Nine of the hits occurred in the eighth inning or later.
Now, without further ado, let’s take a look at this week’s MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-8.