MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-8 (May 19-25)

In week-8 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the 10 most game-critical base hits in MLB from May 19 through May 25 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

It was a great week for the downtrodden. In fact, in this week’s “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits, of the 10 of the most impactful base hits delivered during the past week, nine were struck in the name of teams that are carrying losing records.

Teams laboring in the NL East were particularly fortunate; five of the 10 biggest hits were delivered for that division’s sub-.500 teams, the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, and New York Mets.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called new stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

This week’s countdown also establishes that a hit needn’t be delivered to the seats to be a back-breaker. Four of the hits in this week’s top 10 stayed in play. While it’s true that six of the top 10 were home runs, one was a single, two were doubles and the other a triple.

The one element they do have in common is timeliness. Nine of the hits occurred in the eighth inning or later.

Now, without further ado, let’s take a look at this week’s MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-8.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Kole Calhoun | May 25 | 49%

The Angels came into their Saturday game with the Texas Rangers having lost five in a row, a stretch that  dropped them six games below .500 in the AL West. That circumstance appeared unlikely to improve when Texas scored two runs in the top of the ninth off Angels closer Hansel Robles to erase a 1-0 advantage the home team had nursed since the third inning.

Run-producing hits by Ronald Guzman and Rougned Odor did the damage.

Then when Rangers closer Shawn Kelley opened the bottom of the ninth by retiring Brian Goodwin on a fly ball, the percentages of a  Los Angeles victory fell to just 11 percent.

Luis Rengifo breathed some hope into the LA cause with a ground ball single to right field. That brought up Calhoun, easily the best candidate on that evening. Calhoun’s third inning home run had provided the Angels’ only run to that point, and he had also singled in the fifth.

He was in attack mode, lining Kelley’s first pitch deep into center field for a double that  allowed Rengifo to cross the plate with the tying run. That hit not only tied the game, but with Calhoun in scoring position it made a Los Angeles victory — so unlikely just moments before — a statistical probability.

Two batters later Jared Walsh struck the game winner, a walk-off single that allowed Calhoun to cross the plate with  the Angels’ third and winning run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Rowdy Tellez | May 22 | 49 percent

Rowdy Tellez’ Toronto Blue Jays and the visiting Boston Red Sox had already plowed through the regulation nine innings plus a couple extra when he came to the plate in the bottom of the 12th.
The red hot Red Sox had seized an early 2-0 lead and still led 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth. But Danny Jansen punched a pinch hit single that scored Brandon Drury, who had doubled, to send the game into extra innings.

Mookie Betts homered in the top of the 12th to put Boston in front, but when Heath Hembree retired Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Richard Urena, the Jays were down to their last hope. It was Tellez.
Hembree went with his curve, missing twice and then getting a call. At 2-1, Tellez got a fastball just below the zone. He went after it, caught it flush and drove it over the fence in dead center field for another game-tying hit.

Before the home run, Toronto’s chances of winning measured just five percent. The game-tying blow elevated those chances to 53 percent. But it was not enough of an advantage. In the top of the 13th, Michael Chavis homered, a shot that turned out to be a Boston game-winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Daniel Descalso | May 20 | 51%

Like Telez, Daniel Descalso’s hit came in what was eventually a losing cause. But that shouldn’t de-value the importance of his triple, which provided the Chicago Cubs with a lead that they should have held onto.

The NL Central Cubs and NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies were opening a four-game series they would eventually split at Wrigley Field. Behind starter Jake Arrieta and reliever Seranthony Dominguez, the Phillies led 3-1 when Dominguez lost his radar starting the eighth.

He walked Victor Caratini and Jason Heyward on a combined 10 pitches, bringing Descalso to the plate with the tying runners in scoring position following a sacrifice bunt.

The next hitter, Descalso, took a fastball low and then got another just a bit higher. He drove it into the left center field gap, sending the tying runners across easily and deep enough to allow Descalso to set off for third base. He made it, and when Jean Segura threw wildly in an attempt to retired him Descalso picked himself up and raced home with the go-ahead score.

From only 34 percent probability of winning when Descalso came up, the Cubs suddenly enjoyed an 85 percent chance, nursing their one-run lead with one inning to play at home.
It didn’t work out. In the top of the ninth, Segura made up for his error with a two-out RBI, game-tying single. One inning later, J.T. Realmuto homered to provide the visitors with the eventual winning run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

J.D. Davis | May 21 | 52%

The Tuesday Nats-Mets game was the series’ second, New York having won the opener. But Washington, leading 3-1, was positioned to even the series when J.D. Davis came to bat with two on and two out in the bottom of the seventh inning.

Mets catcher Wilson Ramos had opened the inning by singling off Nats reliever Wander Suero. A strikeout, a passed ball and a walk later, Davis got his chance to hit with the tying runs on base.
Davis took a whack at a first-pitch fastball on the corner but managed only to spoil it. Suero ran the count to 1-2 and then tried to get Davis with a curve. But he hung it and Davis took full advantage, whaling the ball down the right field line for a three-run home run that vaulted New York in front 4-3.

It elevated New York’s chances of winning from just 27 percent to 79 percent.

But this game, too, was hardly over. In the top of the eighth, the Nationals regained the lead with RBI hits by Trea Turner and Juan Soto. In the bottom of the eighth, Pete Alonso homered to tie the game. Finally in the bottom of the night, Armed Rosario broke the tie with a two-RBI walk-off single that drove Adeiny Hechavarria across for the win.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Juan Soto | May 24 | 53%

It was not a good week for the Nationals, who returned home to play the Marlins having lost five straight games, four of them by one or two runs.

Then the Marlins jumped them for four runs in the first two innings, and led 8-4 midway through their Friday game.

But the Nats came back, trailing just 9-8 when they came to bat in the bottom of the eighth inning. When Nick Anderson issued walks to two of the first three Washington batters, Marlins manager Don Mattingly brought in Tayron Guerrero to face Soto.

But Guerrero labored, falling behind 3-1. He went to his fastball, a 100 mph four-seamer, but missed in the worst possible place – down the middle. Soto propelled the gift into the seats in deepest center, giving the Nats their first lead of the day. The next hitter, Matt Adams, went back-to-back, putting the Nationals on top 12-9.

All through the New York series, Washington had trouble holding such late leads. Indeed, Jorge Alfaro opened the ninth with a home run off Sean Doolittle. But Doolittle shut the door from there, sealing Washington’s 12-10 victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Eugenio Suarez | May 25 | 55%

If the Chicago Cubs voted on the Most Valuable Player Award, Eugenio Suarez would win it.
For the second time in less than two weeks, Suarez hit a late-inning home run that turned a Cubs lead into a Reds victory.

On May 15, Suarez’ eighth inning, two-run home run erased a two-run Cubs lead in a game the Reds eventually won in extra innings. Nine days later at Wrigley Field, Suarez struck again.

The entire afternoon had been an uphill struggle. Kyle Schwarber opened the Cubs first by blasting an Anthony DeSclafani pitch onto Sheffield Avenue. Chicago’s lead was four before

Cincinnati’s offense began chipping away, eventually tying the game at four-all.

And when Willson Contreras singled to drive home Anthony Rizzo in the bottom of the eighth, the Cubs regained the lead, this time 5-4. Even after Steve Cishek walked Joey Votto opening the ninth, the Reds’ chances only stood at 28 percent.

But with the wind blowing out, Cishek did the unforgiveable, offering Suarez a belt-high sinker over the middle of the plate. Suarez hit it deep into the left-center field bleachers for his 14th home run. It gave Cincinnati a 6-5 lead that Raisel Iglesias made stand up in the bottom of the ninth.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Carlos Gomez | May 23 | 68 %

Did you think things couldn’t get any worse for the Nationals?

They lost the previous two nights on late hits by J.D. Davis and Juan Lagares. The next night, Gerardo Parra’s base hit staked Wander Suero to a 4-3 lead entering the bottom of the eighth.
Suero worked around Dominic Smith’s leadoff double by fanning two dangerous run-producers, Todd Frazier and Pete Alonso. Nats manager Dave Martinez now faced a choice: pitch to Wilson Ramos or walk him and deal with Gomez.

On paper, it probably seemed like an easy call. Gomez came into the game hitting just .188, and although he did have a hit Ramos – a .250 batter – had two. Martinez chose to walk Ramos and face Gomez.

At that point – two on, two out, bottom of the eighth, trailing by a run – the Mets chances of winning measured just 26 percent. Suero worked the count to 1-2, but his fourth pitch – a cutter – stayed up in the strike zone. Gomez extracted the maximum penalty, lining the pitch over the center field wall for a three-run home run that moved New York in front 6-4.

When Edwin Diaz shut down Washington in the ninth, New York had a third straight win.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Garrett Cooper | May 23 | 73%

This season’s Miami Marlins highlight video is a short feature. But based on the team’s six-game win streak this past week, it may be expanded. After his performance Thursday in the sixth of those victories, Garrett Cooper merits at least a few seconds.

The Marlins came into their mid-week series against the Detroit Tigers having swept three games with the Mets in Miami. They added the first two from the homestanding Tigers, but trailed 2-0 entering the ninth inning of the third game thanks in large measure to five-hit pitching by starter Matt Boyd and two relievers

But the tide began to change when Tiger third baseman Dawel Lugo misplayed Harold Ramirez’ ground ball to open the inning. One out later Neil Walker singled Ramirez home with the Marlins’ first run.

Closer Shane Greene complicated things by walking Jorge Alfaro, moving the tying run into scoring position.

A force, a steal and an intentional walk later, Greene faced Cooper with the bases full and two out. Trailing by a run, the Marlins still counted only a 23 percent chance of actually winning the game, a percentage that might have been even smaller had it factored in Cooper’s.191 batting average and .319 slugging percentage.

But baseball is a funny game, funny enough to encompass the grand slam Cooper unleashed down the left field line on Green’s one-strike offering. It was only Cooper’s second home run all season — his first having come one night earlier —  but it gave Miami a 5-2 lead. Three Tiger outs later, the Marlins had their sixth consecutive victory, and the least likely of the string.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-8

Joe Panik | May 21 | 77%

Joe Panik is a singles hitter, a skill that is a bit anachronistic in today’s power-driven game. That’s why, despite his career .275 average, Panik is often overlooked in the discussions about the game’s best middle infielders.

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But his ground single off Braves reliever Luke Jackson May 21 spoke as loudly as any game-ending grand slam ever did.

The Braves, deep in their pursuit of the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies, carried a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning of their May 21 game in San Francisco. Atlanta closer Luke Jackson took over for the kill, retiring Evan Longoria on a ground ball, allowing a base hit to Brandon Crawford and then retiring Steven Duggar for the inning’s second out.

Only Kevin Pillar stood between Jackson and the closeout, but Pillar singled, scoring Crawford, who the Braves had allowed to take second base uncontested. Then Pillar stole second. Pinch hitter Pablo Sandoval managed only a weak tap toward third baseman Josh Donaldson, but beat it out for an infield hit that sent Pillar to third.

With Panik at the plate, Giants manager Bruce Bochy played double or nothing, risking a game-ending out by sending pinch runner Mac Williamson to second. The gamble worked, putting the winning run in scoring position.

That left the issue to Panik, and he worked the count full before punch before slapping a clean single past Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies into right field. Nick Markakis’ throw home was too late to get Williamson, crossing the plate with the winning run. Before Panik swung his bat, the chances of a Giants win were only 23 percent. After he swung, those odds went to 100 percent. Game over.