In week-9 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the 10 most game-critical base hits in MLB from May 19 through May 25 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
Before we begin recapping this past week’s “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” let’s talk about the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Two of the game’s most feared relief pitchers, Josh Hader and Felipe Vazquez, both surrendered leads…and they did it within a few minutes of one another.
The outcome wasn’t decided until 13 innings and four lead chances had elapsed. The two teams combined for 22 runs and 32 hits, seven of them home runs.
So it’s no surprise that the game was the only one to have produced more than one entry on this week’s list of the week’s 10 most important hits.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of that so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
From 10 to 1, here’s your “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of Week-9.”