MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-9 (May 26-June 1)

In week-9 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the 10 most game-critical base hits in MLB from May 19 through May 25 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

Before we begin recapping this past week’s “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” let’s talk about the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Two of the game’s most feared relief pitchers, Josh Hader and Felipe Vazquez, both surrendered leads…and they did it within a few minutes of one another.

The outcome wasn’t decided until 13 innings and four lead chances had elapsed. The two teams combined for 22 runs and 32 hits, seven of them home runs.

So it’s no surprise that the game was the only one to have produced more than one entry on this week’s list of the week’s 10 most important hits.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of that so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

From 10 to 1, here’s your “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of Week-9.”

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

10. Kole Calhoun, 36 percent

The Angels and Mariners were tied at 3-3 through seven innings of their Saturday game in Seattle. The Mariners, who suffered through a 7-21 May that dropped them into last place in the AL West, were especially desperate to start the month of June off on proper footing.

So after Cesar Puello opened the eighth by drawing a walk off reliever Brandon Brennan, Mariners manager Scott Servais called on Roenis Elias to quell any possibility of a threat. Elias entered the game with a team-leading five saves.

For a few moments, things looked good. Jonathan Lucroy followed Tommy LaStella’s single with a perfect double-play ball that third baseman Kyle Seager turned over. That left Puello at third, but it also left Elias needing only to retire Calhoun in order to escape with the tie intact.

He didn’t make it. Calhoun worked the count full, then pounded an Elias pitch well over the wall in right-center for a home run that gave the Angels a 5-3 lead. Before Calhoun’s hit, the Angels’ chances of winning measured only 48 percent; his homer increased them to 84 percent.

Mike Trout homered to lead off the ninth to add further insurance in what became a 6-3 Angels victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

9. Adam Jones, 38 percent

In Arizona, the visiting Mets carried a 5-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth inning. Mets ace Jacob deGrom had plainly won his personal duel with D-Backs ace Zack Greinke, allowing just that single run and five hits over 6.2 innings. The Mets had gotten to Greinke for four runs and seven hits in just the four innings he lasted.

At that point, Arizona’s chances of winning the game were measured in single digits.

That all changed, however, against Jeurys Familia, who had gotten the final out in relief of deGrom in the seventh. Pinch hitter Tim Locastro began the eight by taking a Familia pitch off his body, and Jarrod Dyson followed with a base hit. Ketel Marte’s hit sent Locastro across, and Eduardo Escobar’s sacrifice fly to left scored Dyson.

The Diamondbacks still trailed by two, but with nobody out the next batter, Jones represented the tying run. Mets manager Mickey Callaway brought in Robert Gsellman, with an ERA around 3.75, to face Jones, one of four D-Backs with a double-digit home run count.

Jones took a first-pitch strike, then smashed the next fastball he saw over the left field wall for that game-tying home run.

Statistically, the hit only improved Arizona’s chances of winning from 18 percent to 56 percent, but emotionally it was a different calculation. The game remained tie into extra innings, but in the 11th Locastro’s base hit scored Kevin Cron, who had doubled to open the inning, with the winning run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

8. Eddie Rosario, 39 percent

The Minnesota Twins are baseball’s most surprising team, and they also entered June with the American League’s best record, at 38-18. Left fielder Eddie Rosario, with 17 home runs and 49 RBIs, is a major reason for that lofty standing.

In Tampa Friday night, the Twins and Rays were tied at 3-3 entering the ninth inning of a game the Rays particularly needed. While Minnesota cruised with a lead approaching double digits in the AL Central, the Rays were locked in a taut battle for first in the AL East with the Yankees.

Tampa led 3-1 until the Twins tied the game with a pair of the fifth inning runs, then neither team produced a major threat through the eighth.

Rays pitcher Diego Castillo hit Jonathan Schoop with the first pitch of the ninth, but retired the next two hitters, Byron Buxton on a sacrifice bunt and Max Kepler on an easy bouncer to first.

Castillo then intentionally walked Jorge Polanco to face Willians Astudillo but compounded matters by hitting Astudillo, loading the bases.

Rays manager Kevin Cash had seen enough of Castillo. In a game-critical situation, he summoned Adam Kolarek to record the final out. But Rosario had other ideas. On an 0-1 pitch, he grounded a base hit between the shortstop and third baseman into left that allowed both Schoop and Polanco to score.

Those two runs not only gave Minnesota 5-3 lead, but they also increased the chances of a Twins victory from 53 percent to 92 percent. Closer Taylor Rogers formalized the outcome in the bottom of the ninth.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

6. Shohei Ohtani, 41 percent

Fate, injuries, and possibly opponents, have prevented Shohei Ohtani from thus far emerging as the two-way threat everybody assumed he would be when the Angels won the bidding war for him prior to the 2018 season.

Arm surgery has sidetracked Ohtani’s pitching this season, but it hasn’t prevented him from swinging the bat. Against the Athletics in Oakland on Tuesday, he swung it decisively.

The ballgame was tied 4-4, Oakland having gradually dug its way out of an early 4-0 hole when Ohtani faced Oakland’s Joakim Soria in the bottom of the ninth. That ninth had been a deceptively challenging one for Soria, who opened it by retiring both Luis Rengifo and David Fletcher without incident.

Then things went off-script. Tommy LaStella singled, Mike Trout walked and both runners advanced when Soria’s first pitch to Ohtani bounced away from Josh Phegley to the backstop.

Ohtani worked the count to 2-2, then lined a single into the right-center field gap that easily scored both runners.  The resulting two-run lead improved LA’s chances of winning from 51 percent to 92 percent. It was a rare sweet moment for Ohtani, who has hit under .240 since his return. In the bottom of the ninth, Oakland managed to bring the tying run to the plate, but Hansel Robles prevented any actual damage.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

5. Brandon Dixon, 42 percent

Based purely on the standings, the Tigers-Orioles game played Wednesday in Baltimore was a throwaway. The two teams stood a combined 37-70, holding down fourth and fifth places in the AL Central and AL East respectively.

To the team involved, of course, it was a different and far more intense matter. The Orioles took an early 1-0 lead, Detroit tied the game in the top of the fourth, Baltimore moved back ahead in the bottom of that same inning, and the Tigers tied it again with a run in the eighth.

In the ninth, the outcome came down to the at-bat between Dixon and rookie Orioles pitcher Branden Kline. His debut season has been a struggle for Kline, operating with an ERA in excess of 5.00 through his first 11 appearances.

Second-year outfielder Dixon, obtained off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds last November, has been another matter entirely, something of a revelation in Detroit. Dixon is batting .312 with a .584 slugging average since winning a full-time spot in mid-April.

Nick Castellanos began the ninth by working Kline for a base on balls. But when Miguel Cabrera flew out, Dixon got his chance. He didn’t miss, driving Kline’s first pitch for a home run into the right-center field seats. When Shane Greene stifled a Baltimore threat in the bottom of the ninth, Dixon’s home run was a game-winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

4. Will Smith, 42 percent

In a game pitting divisional leaders and featuring stars of the stripe of Harper, Bellinger and Kershaw, an unknown guy named Smith delivered the decisive knock.

Will Smith is a backup catcher for the Dodgers who was called up less than a week ago when Austin Barnes went on the injury list with a groin strain. His appearance Saturday was only the fourth of his big league career.

Smith was hitless in two official at-bats – with a walk – when he came to the plate in a 3-3 tie game in the bottom of the ninth inning facing Hector Neris. LA led 3-1 until Bryce Harper – a  hero candidate if ever there was one — delivered a game-tying, one-out home run off Julio Urias in the eighth.

Neris had retired the inning’s first batter, Alex Verdugo, on an easy ground ball to second.

As the home team, the odds late in a tie game naturally leaned toward a Dodger victory, although only by 58 percent. But Smith upgraded those to 100 percent when he propelled a 3-2 Neris offering into the seats down the left field line for a game-winning home run.

It was not only a walk-off game winner, it was also the first home run of Smith’s major league career.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

3. Starling Marte, 44 percent

If you are into slugging (and you are), Saturday’s Brewers-Pirates game in Pittsburgh was as memorable as it gets in early June. Milwaukee worked a drumbeat on Pirates starter Nick Kingham that yielded five runs within three innings, only to see the Pirates respond with four in the bottom of the third off Brandon Woodruff.

Pittsburgh knocked Woodruff out and took the lead with three in the fifth, but Milwaukee responded with three in the sixth to move back in front 8-7. That’s where things stood when Marte stepped in against Hader with two on and one out in the bottom of the eighth.

The situation matched great against great. Hader, who hadn’t blown a save all season, carried 57 strikeouts in fewer than 30 innings into the confrontation. For his part, Marte had already produced to singles, one a third inning hit that led to a run.

Hader missed with a fastball and then delivered a pitch that Marte turned on. It landed in the shrubbery in deep center field for a three-run home run that lifted Pittsburgh into a 10-8 lead.

With just here Brewer outs remaining and Pirate relief ace Vazquez poised to enter, the contest seemed all but over. But appearances can be deceiving. More on that momentarily.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

2. Trey Mancini, 45 percent

The Colorado Rockies were a playoff team last season; the Orioles represent baseball’s dregs. Beyond that, the game was played in Denver. So why wasn’t this a Colorado walkover?

For a few moments, it looked like it might be. The Rockies scored four times in the sixth to take a 5-1 advantage. But Baltimore rallied for three runs in the seventh and entered the eighth trailing only 6-4. Doubles by Richie Martin and Keon Broxton made it 6-5, and when Jonathan Villar drew a two-out walk, Mancini batted with the tying and go-ahead runs on base.

Facing Scott Oberg, Mancini worked a 2-1 count then got a pitch he liked and drove it into the spacious confines of Coors Field’s center field acreage for a three-base hit. With the tying and lead runs across, Baltimore’s chances of picking up a rare victory had instantaneously improved from just 27 percent to 72 percent.

While that hit should have sealed the deal, keep in mind that we’re talking about the Orioles and Coors Field here. In the bottom of the ninth, Colorado loaded the bases on a single and two walks, then Mychal Given walked Ian Desmond to force the tying run across. The next batter, Tony Wolters, got a fly ball deep enough into left to allow Daniel Murphy to score the winning run for the home team.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-9

1. Orlando Arcia, 45 percent

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Marte’s home run combined with the arrival on the mound of Vazquez made a Pirate victory a 92 percent likelihood. The pitcher known league-wide as “The Nightmare” entered with 14 saves and 40 strikeouts in just 25 innings, and like Hader he had not blown a save all season. But also like Hader, that was about to change.

Vazquez hit Mike Moustakas on an 0-2 fastball before fanning Yasmani Grandal. The next batter Keston Hiura, stunned Pirate fans with a home run deep into the left-field seats, hanging Vazquez’s first blown save on him and tying the game 10-10.

That tie held through the bottom of the ninth and three tense extra innings during which the opponents advanced a runner into scoring position six times, only to strand him.

In the bottom of the 12th, Pittsburgh loaded the bases with one out, but Adrian Houser retired both Marte and Josh Bell to prevent the winning run from scoring.

The outcome appeared stuck in neutral when Arcia faced Alex McRae with two out and Hernan Perez at second base in the top of the 13th. In a homer-dominated game, the light-hitting shortstop wasn’t a prime candidate to deliver. But he did, and it was a no-doubter deep into the left-center field seats. Perez scored ahead of him, and when Houser shut down Pittsburgh in the bottom of the 13th Milwaukee had a win that thrust them into first place in the NL Central.