2019 MLB Draft: Friendly Reminder, This is a Crapshoot

The first round of the MLB draft took place yesterday. With the remainder of the draft playing out over the course of the week, many mistakes will be made.

As of the time of this writing, its 1929 on Monday, June 3rd and the MLB Draft has already begun.  Adley Rutschman has been the first player drafted overall by the Baltimore Orioles.  Bobby Witt Jr. was taken 2nd overall was taken by the Royals.

As the night continues, dreams will be realized by high schoolers and college players alike.  I, like many of you, dreamed of getting drafted but former college left-handers with the yips whose velocity readings don’t start with 9 aren’t exactly in demand (SHOCKER).

The night of the MLB Draft is a time for optimism, excitement, and the dream of what could be for teams, players, and fans alike.  It can be the start of the rise to a dynasty, finding that future franchise corner-stone or the missing piece to a championship roster.

More often than not though, the draft is a crap shoot at best. Teams will be kicking themselves as they do lessons learned to improve their process in the future.

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Adley Rutschman has been considered the best player in the draft and he is now the number 1 overall selection.  Flashback to a time when the Orioles used a high-profile pick of a college catcher.  They took Matt Wieters in 2007 who was heralded as the next Johnny Bench.  Wieters has absolutely had a successful career as a catcher but he hasn’t lived up to the transcendent buzz he generated pre-draft and in Baseball America top 100s.

The most damning of examples on how the draft is a crapshoot takes place in the 2009 draft.  With the number one overall pick, the Nationals took an RHP out of San Diego State by the name of Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg has been a great pitcher and downright dominant throughout the course of his Nationals career.

A great selection yes.  But consider this list.   If there isn’t any further indication you need this is like playing roulette, there you go.  Mike Trout is a generational talent and player who will go down as one of the best to ever play Baseball.

If you scroll down the list, you’ll see that 24 teams (including the Angels) passed on Mike Trout. I say again 24 organizations scouts, analysts, and brain trusts assessed that there were better players than Trout.

Granted, you could understand the rationale at the time.  Cold weather, northeast prospect.  Doesn’t play anybody in New Jersey.  How many greats are named after a fish anyway?  Well, Mike Trout is.

So while the draft is a time for optimism, you should pay attention to your team’s entire draft and take each pick with a grain of salt, or whiskey depending on your preference.  No matter how much information, traditional or analytical is acquired, there’s going to be plenty of misses tonight along with under the radar discoveries.

Happy MLB Draft Day Folks.  Let’s hope that your team’s scouts/analysts did their homework on the weekend college number 3 pitching in game 2 on Saturday.  He’s going to get drafted in round 4, mow down hitters through the minor leagues, and be a rotation anchor.  Don’t forget about the scout who made the drive through God’s Country to see the potential stud hitting sixth in the order playing in New Mexico, Iowa, or Alabama.  Simply put, this is one big gambling event.   May the Odds Be Ever In Your Favor.