Fansided

Phillies: June’s critical bullpen reinforcements

By Tal Venada |
If Robertson excels in the final two months of the season, will the Phillies exercise his club option? Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images.
If Robertson excels in the final two months of the season, will the Phillies exercise his club option? Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images.
1 of 4
Next
After 2018’s solid second half, Hunter will return to an injury-plagued bullpen, but will his effectiveness against left-side bats determine who gets demoted? Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images.
After 2018’s solid second half, Hunter will return to an injury-plagued bullpen, but will his effectiveness against left-side bats determine who gets demoted? Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

While expectations lead to demands, the Phillies course –barring injuries–has been fairly predictable since March, and general manager Matt Klentak still has a starter on his wish list even if it’s in June instead of July.

Second-half projection:

Regarding the Philadelphia Phillies and 29 other franchises, the faithful, players, uniformed management, and execs view the same product on the diamond. That stated, all four categories of spectators mostly arrive at different conclusions because of their relationship to the game. Translation: one variable!

IN OTHER WORDS: “The variables vary too much and the constants aren’t as constant as they seem.” – Robert Anton Wilson

Even though the relief corps ranks fifth for National League pens, they are down to Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez and a changing cast behind them. Plus Jose Alvarez was an opener in game two against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

When most fans see an horrendous blown save, they will probably never forget or again trust that fireman: Neris in 2017 at Los Angeles. On the other hand, Dominguez earned a lot of faith after 12 spectacular performances to begin his career. But will more locals remember one Neris’ outing more than Dominguez’s 12?

As for teammates, they understand the peaks and valleys every player experiences. They know pitchers and hitters are the professionals between their hot streaks and their slumps. Yes, players have their good and bad days too.

After their baseball-playing days, skippers and coaches have learned over many campaigns how easily a hurler or slugger can have a problem with his mechanics or can develop a bad habit by unknowingly compensating. Realistically, a manager expects a reliever to perform acceptably in four out of every five opportunities.

As for GMs, their decisions include finances, rules, performances and the organization’s direction. But if you know their needs and limitations, you can understand their moves before and after their occurrence. In fact, signing Craig Kimbrel isn’t Klentak’s plan because he needs a stater. And Kimbrel will likely get multi-year offers.

In the coming weeks, the Phils will have David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Adam Morgan, Tommy Hunter and Edubray Ramos. Basically, those five arms, Neris, Dominguez and southpaw Alvarez will be available for the stretch drive. And you can expect meaningful games before July due to one trading deadline: earlier deals.

Ramos will probably return slightly before Hunter. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images.
Ramos will probably return slightly before Hunter. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. /

Welcome back:     

Besides Neris, Dominguez, Alvarez and Nicasio, the Phillies are relying on Vince Velasquez, Austin Davis and two rookies: Edgar Garcia and J.D. Hammer. Basically, missing half of their Opening Day bullpen has been survivable despite recent hiccups.

Barring any setbacks to the five returning hurlers, the Fightins will reactivate Ramos first. He threw a bullpen session on May 29, as did Hunter. That stated, neither had any reported problems, but both will throw some more before going on short rehab assignments. Help wanted!

As for Eflin’s next start, the red pinstripes will probably make a roster move on June 7 with Rios returning to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. However, Ramos’ reactivation could involve a return to the IronPigs between Garcia, Hammer or Davis, who’s the only lefty besides Alvarez and Morgan (not active).

With 80 percent (four out of five outings) as management’s yardstick, Ramos had nine acceptable appearances (one was so-so) out of 12 or 75 percent. Meanwhile, Hunter will be fresh with three or four months left including the stretch drive. And both setup men are roughly 10 days away.

In late June, Robertson could take the mound, and his closing experience should help him extinguish many threats in challenging situations. Yes, he had produced three bad efforts to begin the 162, but he had four consecutive good performances before his IL (injury list) stint.

While Robertson might begin throwing shortly, Neshek (right shoulder strain) and Morgan (left forearm strain) went on the IL on May 25 and May 29 respectively. It appears both will rejoin the hometown nine in July or after the All-Star break.

Robertson could be returning in late June, and the bullpen’s back-end strength will be visible. Photo by M. Brown/Getty Images.
Robertson could be returning in late June, and the bullpen’s back-end strength will be visible. Photo by M. Brown/Getty Images. /

NL East arms:

Even though the Phillies have had six of eight projected relievers on the IL, they are fifth in NL bullpen ERA. Fortunately, the Fightins’ injuries in the relief corps haven’t created impossible-to-solve shortcomings yet.

In 10th place for NL pens, the Atlanta Braves despite losing their co-closers –one a lefty– have received results from some hurlers who are surpassing expectations. And fireman Minter may get another shot with the parent club because of his Triple-A success. Also, righty Vizcaino had season-ending surgery before his trade.

Ranking 12th, the New York Mets aren’t receiving the dependability Diaz provided last summer, and they are relying on the same few hurlers to bridge the gap from the starter to the new ninth-frame arm. In other words, 2018’s closer who re-signed to set up Diaz is struggling, and that one cog is also affecting the unit’s viability.

As for the NL East favorites, the Washington Nationals are roughly a 1.00 bullpen ERA behind the 29th MLB franchise. Theoretically, their starters must pitch eight innings to get to Doolittle, and those extended outings are rare. Plus, financially, they only have $3.4 million to spend before incurring another Luxury Tax penalty.

While the league is constructing scouting reports on Garcia and Hammer, the youngsters are following the guidance of J.T. Realmuto. And the entire relief corps is benefiting from his experienced game-calling.

For the red pinstripes, they will have three fresh arms in June and all five for the stretch drive. But what is the one thing we have yet to see from the 2019 Phils’ pen? Full strength!

Morgan will probably return in July for the stretch drive. Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
Morgan will probably return in July for the stretch drive. Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies statistical results toward 80 percent:      (through June 4)

Robertson: 4 good, 0 so-so and 3 bad (0 blowups) out of 7 total for 57.1%

Dominguez: 16 good, 3 so-so and 7 bad (1 blowup) out of 26 total for 73.1%

Neris: 20 good, 1 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 25 total for 84%

Neshek: 12 good, 1 so-so and 6 bad (1 blowup) out of 19 total for 68.4%

Morgan: 22 good, 1 so-so and 1 bad (1 blowup) out of 24 total for 95.8%

Alvarez: 14 good (1 opener), 4 so-so and 5 bad (1 blowup) out of 23 total for 78.3%

Ramos: 8 good, 1 so-so and 3 bad (0 blowups) out of 12 total for 75%

Nicasio: 13 good, 4 so-so and 5 bad (0 blowups) out of 22 total for 77.3%

Arano: 2 good, 0 so-so and 1 bad (0 blowups) out of 3 total for 66.7%

Anderson: 1 good, 0 so-so and 1 bad (0 blowups) out of 2 total for 50%

Davis: 2 good, 1 so-so and 2 bad (0 blowups) out of 5 total for 60%

De Los Santos: 1 good, 1 so-so and 2 bad (0 blowups) out of 4 total for 50%

Garcia: 8 good, 1 so-so and 5 bad (2 blowups) out of 14 total for 64.3%

Velasquez: 2 good, 1 so-so and 2 bad (1 blowup) out of 5 total for 60%

Hammer: 3 good, 0 so-so and 1 bad (1 blowup) out of 4 total for 75%

Rios: 1 good, 1 so-so and 1 bad (0 blowups) out of 3 total for 66.7%

Irvin: 0 good, 1 so-so and 0 bad (0 blowups) out of 1 total for 100% (after opener).

A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.

This is a running tally including inherited runners scoring.

More from Call to the Pen

NL Relievers ERA:     (through June 3)

  • Phillies: 5th with a 4.21 ERA.
  • Braves: 10th with a 4.41 ERA.
  • Mets: 12th with a 4.91 ERA.
  • Nationals: 15th with a 6.81 ERA.

Returning Phillies relievers’ stats:

  • Ramos, 26.5: 12 Gms., 9 2/3 Inn., a 4.66 ERA, 1 Hold, a 4.59 FIP, a 6.01 xFIP, a 5.13 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.66 WHIP.
  • Robertson, 34: 7 Gms., 6 2/3 Inn., a 5.40 ERA, 2 Holds, a 5.99 FIP, a 6.62 xFIP, a 6.12 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 2.10 WHIP.
  • Neshek, 38.5: 19 Gms., 17 1/3 Inn., a 4.57 ERA, 3 Saves, 6 Holds, a 5.28 FIP, a 5.04 xFIP, a 4.65 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
  • Morgan, 29: 24 Gms., 18 1/3 Inn., a 1.96 ERA, 12 Holds, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 3.56 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 0.71 WHIP.

dark. Next. Phillies: Rotation's motivations or mysteries

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.

Next
Home / Philadelphia Phillies