Toronto Blue Jays: Who they should (and shouldn’t) trade by the deadline
The Toronto Blue Jays have some decisions to make prior to the trade deadline, with some being easier than others. Who should the Jays deal before July 31 in return for potential pieces of the future, and who should the organization hold onto to help propel them into contention at some point?
There is no doubt that 2019 has been a rebuilding year for the Toronto Blue Jays. Not only was that made clear heading into the season with the front office turning their nose up at making any upgrades to the roster through free agency, but even more so as the Jays have been a sight for sore eyes as they’ve stumbled to a 23-39 record this season which has now spanned two months and change.
With no indication that the Blue Jays will become contenders at any point this season, the on-field personnel will look significantly different at the end of the year than it did heading into it as Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins will be engaging in trade talks with other clubs in an attempt to extract value out of players they don’t see as part of the organization’s future.
It is likely the “Shatkins” duo will pawn off any and every impending free agent, but there is an ongoing debate as to whether they’ll ship off players who are hovering around their prime years and could perhaps bring back enough value to make trading them worth it. If you’ve been following the team this year, you know who I’m talking about.
There are numerous Blue Jays who we won’t know what uniform they’ll be wearing come the July 31st trade deadline, but to give you an idea I’ve made a list of Toronto’s top trade candidates, and which ones they should (and shouldn’t trade away). I’ve ranked the team’s top trade candidates from likeliest-to-be-dealt to maybe-they-shouldn’t-be dealt. While I think the Blue Jays should certainly trade some and consider holding onto others, we really won’t know until the deadline passes.
Trade Candidate #1: Justin Smoak
Smoakey is one of the few names on the roster that’s still recognizable from the good days of 2015 and 2016, albeit as one of the least valuable bats during the team’s playoff-filled campaigns amassing a .222 average and 32 home runs combined across those two years. However, a change in his swing resulted in a breakout 2017 in which the first baseman crushed 38 long balls with 90 runs batted in, a .270 average, .883 OPS. Smoak hasn’t quite been able to replicate the level of production that sent him to the All Star Game in ’17, but he’s been a formidable hitter since nonetheless and, on an expiring contract, will certainly be a player who the front office will be fielding calls for come July.
With Rowdy Tellez being groomed to play everyday for the rest of the season to give Shatkins an idea of whether he’s the first baseman of the future, along with there being just a few months left until Smoak reaches free agency, it is without a doubt the Blue Jays will be looking to shop the 32-year old when the time comes. While he isn’t one of the league’s premier players at the position, Smoak will surely attract contending teams who are in the market for a player who provides power from both sides of the plate and above average defense at first. He’s been a valuable mentor for Rowdy this season, but he’ll be more valuable serving as a trade chip in which the Jays will be able to retrieve some mid-level prospects in return.
Verdict: Definitely gone by July 31st
Trade Candidate #2: Daniel Hudson
One of the few free agent splashes the Blue Jays made in the winter, Daniel Hudson has been one of the best relief pitchers to come out of Toronto’s bullpen this season.
His tenure with the Jays got off on the wrong foot when he served up the game-losing home run on Opening Day but he’s been otherwise reliable as the team’s 8th inning setup man, even serving as the opener on one occasion in May.
In 27 appearances Hudson has pitched to the tune of a modest 3.62 ERA with 25 punchouts and 14 walks in 27.1 innings, recording an above average 123 ERA+. His WHIP (1.35) and home runs allowed (5) are not ideal, but Hudson’s impressive fastball velocity (95.9 mph) and spin rate (2,492 rpm) along with his underlying numbers make him attractive to clubs looking to bolster their bullpen in preparation for a postseason run.
Don’t be surprised if he’s in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform by the end of this season.
Verdict: Traded to a contender by the deadline
Trade Candidate #3: Freddy Galvis
Like Hudson, Freddy Galvis is an offseason acquisition who’s provided value to a club who hasn’t received much of it in general so far this year.
Galvis has demonstrated respectable pop with nine home runs and is on pace to hit more home runs this year than he’s ever had in one campaign. The question is whether or not he’ll set that single-season high in Toronto or elsewhere.
It is without a doubt Galvis has been more valuable than his 0.3 WAR suggests due to the leadership he’s provided the Blue Jays’ young Latin players, but as he’s on an expiring contract it makes sense for the Jays to entertain offers for the veteran infielder. Galvis’ .424 slugging percentage this season is the highest throughout his eight years in the bigs, and it is no secret the 29-year old is one of the most durable and defensively-proficient players at his position in baseball.
I could see him end up on a National League squad looking to shore up their defense up the middle as well as a hitter who could do damage late in games (perhaps as a pinch hitter) as indicated by a .807 OPS in the 7-9 innings this year.
Verdict: Most Likely Traded
Trade Candidate #4: Ken Giles
Although the Jays haven’t provided Ken Giles too many save opportunities since, you know, they aren’t usually leading in the ninth inning, he’s been nearly perfect when called upon.
100-miles Giles (though 99-miles Giles is more fitting now) has converted 11 of his 12 save opportunities, recording a stingy 1.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while punching out a phenomenal 42 batters in just 25 innings pitched. His 15.1 K/9 this season is the highest it’s ever been, and even though he still has a year and a half left on his contract his stellar numbers will make it a guarantee that teams will come calling the front office inquiring about his availability in a trade.
While I initially thought the Blue Jays should maybe keep Giles for now, he’s pitching so well that it may be foolish to hold onto him as the club would perhaps benefit more from flipping him for some high-end prospects rather than hold onto him. Relief pitching is always coveted at the deadline, and if Giles can maintain his pace he may be the most sought after bullpen arm come mid-July.
His value may never be as high as it would be at the deadline if he continues to dominate, and while it’d be nice if he stuck around I would consider moving him if the Blue Jays receive an offer they can’t refuse.
Verdict: Traded for the right offer
Trade Candidate #5: Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez won’t be a free agent until the end of next season, but his name has been discussed often as one that might get moved by this year’s deadline, presumably because the Jays would get more value in return for a pitcher with a year and a half of control rather than just half of a year. Although Sanchez has been a mainstay in the clubhouse the past several years, the right-hander has had trouble staying on the mound as injuries have plagued his young career. Over the past several seasons. He’s dealt with a right index finger contusion on multiple occasions, as well as recurring blister issues on the same finger. As a result, he’s only made 41 starts since 2017 after a stellar ’16 campaign in which he made 30 starts and recorded the best ERA (3.00) in the junior circuit.
However, Sanchez hasn’t missed a start this season, and has been formidable with a 3.95 ERA and a 7.9 K/9 rate that’s the best mark of his career. With the Blue Jays not expected to contend for a few more years, the team has a decision to make as to whether they want to keep the 26-year old and extend him or if they would rather trade him to receive pieces that will be more helpful for when the Jays are ready to win.
Many observers believe that Sanchez and Marcus Stroman will have the same fate, whether they stay or go, due to the similarity of their situations. Both are young, will be free agents in 2021, and are regarded as mid-rotation starters.
Aaron Sanchez was not feeling the Jays performance in Anaheim. 😐#MLB pic.twitter.com/lcQfd5sSnz
— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) May 3, 2019
However, when Sanchez publicly calls out his teammates like above (in a start where he allowed 4 ER, 9 hits and as many K’s as walks nonetheless) it reveals he doesn’t really want to be a Blue Jay, and is a player who the front office should consider trading more seriously than Stroman. If Sanchez can stay healthy and pitch well for the next month and a half, I expect him shipped out of town. I find he’s a wild card as it is with his inconsistency and his health issues.
Verdict: Traded if he performs and the Jays get the right offer
Trade Candidate #6: Marcus Stroman
If there is anyone in baseball aside from Madison Bumgarner who’s name has been found on the trade block the most, it’s been Marcus Stroman. Not only is it because the fiery competitor still has a year and a half of control, but because he’s been one of the best pitchers in the American League so far this season. His 2.84 ERA is good for 7th-best in the AL, and he’s seen improvements all across the board from last season along with an impeccable 154 ERA+.
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Stroman has demonstrated phenomenal stuff on the mound in 13 starts this year, which is why he’s so sought after as the deadline is less than two months away. If he can continue his dominance on the mound in an offensively-driven AL East the Jays will have plenty of suitors as he fits the role as a 2nd/3rd starter on a contending club.
The question is whether or not the Blue Jays should deal him come July 31st. While he could fetch the organization a good return if shipped before he hits free agency in 2021, Stroman has indicated he would be open to an extension and is a fan favourite who makes his presence known both in the dugout and clubhouse as someone who is a leader and morale booster.
While front offices tend to value these intangibles less than ever before, he is just reaching his prime now and would anchor a young starting rotation by the time the Jays are ready to compete.
Next. Vlad Jr - road warrior. dark
This will be a tough decision for the front office, but unless they get a Chris Archer-like deal in which they could receive two young phenoms and a third on the rise, I think it might be in their best interest to keep and extend StroShow, who has made his affection for his team and the city of Toronto clear as day, and would be a staple in the rotation for when all the young pieces like Vlad Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette hit their stride.