San Diego Padres: Staying True to Analytics by Limiting Paddack's Innings

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One of the pleasant surprises for 2019 has been Chris Paddack for the San Diego Padres, but the young phenom is on an innings limit for this season.

There has been plenty of excitement surrounding the 2019 San Diego Padres as the team is competitive and the fans look forward to seeing Chris Paddack pitch every fifth day.

Sure, Paddack’s inexperienced has shown against quality opponents, but he has exhibited the ability to command the strike zone in a short period of work. Some believe shutting down a young talent like Paddack is a crime, especially if the Padres are contending for a wild-card berth in the final month of the season.

That might be true, but for the San Diego Padres, it’s all about staying true to the analytics.

The New Age of Major League Baseball

It’s a new age in major league baseball as most fans have accepted the pitching rules associated with the game today. No one questions when a starting pitcher exits a game after throwing 100 pitches or when a team uses an opener to begin a contest. Another rule that has become the norm is shutting down a young pitcher after he has reached his projected innings for the season.

Still, older fans scream how the sport has become too specialized. The truth is players are advancing through the minors at a faster rate than ever before, but pitcher’s arms aren’t fully developed because they haven’t thrown the required innings needed before debuting in the majors.

In today’s minor leagues, a starting pitcher may only appear once a week, which limits the number of innings that could be accumulated as the season ends in early September. For example, Paddack pitched 90 innings between stints in A and Double-A ball last season and that’s being less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery. It’s all about gradually increasing a pitcher’s workload before the restrictions are lessened.

(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

What are Paddack’s Innings Limits in 2019?

The cap to Paddack’s innings limit hasn’t been confirmed by the San Diego Padres, but for argument sakes, let’s try to pinpoint his possible shutdown date. Multiple media outlets have reported that Paddack’s limit has been set between 130-150 innings for this season.

Currently, he is averaging just under six innings-per-start, which would project to 25 starts for this season. Paddack’s year could come to an end sometime in August. But that target date could change if the Padres continue on the path of giving him an extra day off when the schedule warrants that measure

You may ask yourself, why are the Padres being so cautious with Paddack? It’s a difficult balancing act for an organization trying to become relevant once again while protecting their main asset at the same time. Ultimately, the Padres must preserve Paddack’s prized arm for the good of the franchise.

We have all seen too many quality young arms fizzle out before making an impact on the sport. The Padres front office analytic team holds the ruling voice and concluded that putting restrictions on Paddack’s usage is the right call to beating these odds.

Front Office Analytic Teams Are The “New” Field Managers

Another trend we’re seeing in this “new age of baseball” is front office analytics dictating which players are in the starting lineup each day. I’m not talking about an MIT grad in full uniform standing next to the manager with a tablet in hand.

Actually, it’s a three-ring binder that holds video analysis, defensive stats and hitting spray charts of every possible on-field situation that could occur in a game. The analytics offer a number of paths to achieve success.

The importance of baseball analytics was brought to light in Michael Lewis’ book, Moneyball, and later, applauded by all for its importance in transforming the Houston Astros from cellar dwellers to World Series champions.

Now, I’m not trying to suggest that San Diego Padres general manager AJ Preller has become the de facto manager from his press level private box, but his input decides the outcome of games. Thus, baseball analytics has relegated the on-field manager into a mid-level management position by limiting the amount of in-game strategizing needed from them.

However, it hasn’t limit the amount of second-guessing done by fans or the media on botched pitching changes or the failure to score a base runner from third with less than two outs in the inning. At least, the binder can offer a better explanation for these miscues than most major league managers today. Like it or not baseball analytics is here to stay as franchises use this tool to win World Series titles today.

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Innings Limit Began with Joba Rules

The art of developing strict guidelines for how young pitchers are used in games began with the New York Yankees handling of Joba Chamberlain at the conclusion of the 2007 season.

More from Call to the Pen

Chamberlain was the prized jewel of the Yankees farm system as he moved through four levels in his first professional season. The team was looking to bridge the gap before handing the ball off to Mariano Rivera. His addition brought great depth to the backend of their bullpen.

The dilemma for Yankees president Brian Cashman was Chamberlain’s path to the majors was projected as a starting pitcher. Thus, Joba Rules were created.

The rules were simple to follow as Chamberlain could be used on multiple days for one inning, but he couldn’t pitch two innings in a game unless he was rested for two games prior to the appearance.

Clearly, Paddack is a special talent, but the jury is out on how much of an impact the projected innings limit will make on the Padres overall record for the 2019 season. Sure, it will feel like a premature end to the season once Paddack is shut down for the year. But it makes no sense to ruin his chances for stardom by over-pitching him for a possible wild-card game appearance.

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It’s the best move for the future of the San Diego Padres as you cannot contend if Paddack’s career is filled with IL stints.

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