In week-10 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB from 6/2-6/8 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
Edwin Encarnacion has more major league seasons under his belt (15) than Josh Naylor has games (14). But those two major league players – a veteran and a fresh rookie, share one trait. Both delivered for their teams in extreme game-sensitive moments this past week.
Encarnacion and Naylor produced two of the 10 most important hits of the week as measured by Weighted Win Probability Added, Encarnacion’s coming against the Seattle Mariners and Naylor’s against the Washington Nationals.
And although Naylor was in fact the least experienced major leaguer to come through in the absolute clutch this week, he doesn’t hold that distinction by much. A fellow named Vlad Guerrero Jr., who you may have heard of, produced when Toronto needed him to beat the Yankees as well. More on that later.
This countdown, aptly named “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
From 10 to 1, here’s your “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of Week-10”