MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-10 (June 2-8)

In week-10 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB from 6/2-6/8 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

Edwin Encarnacion has more major league seasons under his belt (15) than Josh Naylor has games (14). But those two major league players – a veteran and a fresh rookie, share one trait. Both delivered for their teams in extreme game-sensitive moments this past week.

Encarnacion and Naylor produced two of the 10 most important hits of the week as measured by Weighted Win Probability Added, Encarnacion’s coming against the Seattle Mariners and Naylor’s against the Washington Nationals.

And although Naylor was in fact the least experienced major leaguer to come through in the absolute clutch this week, he doesn’t hold that distinction by much. A fellow named Vlad Guerrero Jr., who you may have heard of, produced when Toronto needed him to beat the Yankees as well. More on that later.

This countdown, aptly named “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

From 10 to 1, here’s your “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits of Week-10”

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

10. DJ LeMahieu, 35 percent

Wednesday’s Yanks-Jays game produced two pivotal moments, and they bracket this week’s countdown. Although it didn’t work out in the end, for a while that evening it appeared that DJ LeMahieu, not Guerrero, had delivered the game-decider.

LeMahieu’s moment arose in the top of the 6th inning of what was a 4-4 tie. Clint Frazier singled, and after Jays starter Derek Law retired Brett Gardner and Gio Urhsela, Cameron Maybin kept the inning alive with a base hit of his own.

LeMahieu was the next hitter. A free agent pickup, he’s having a nice season covering for some of the Yankee infield wounded, with a .315 batting average and.828 OPS. When he stepped in, the game outcome was a virtual tossup, New York’s chances — as the visitors in a tie game with runners at first and second and two out in the sixth — measured at 49 percent. The former Colorado Rockie improved them substantially, crushing Law’s 1-0 pitch for a line drive three-run home run into the left field seats.

That hit moved the Yankees in front 7-4 and improved their odds of victory to 84 percent. But only for the moment; New York still had to navigate through the final three innings, and that meant getting past Guerrero.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

9. Delino DeShields, 38 percent

All night long, Texas’ offense had done virtually nothing against the visiting Orioles. Elvis Andrus’s first inning double produced a run, and from that point John Means and four relievers shut down the Rangers on just five hits through the regulation nine innings plus the 10th and 11th.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense produced just enough to extend the game, Richie Martin homering in the top of the ninth off Shawn Kelley to spoil the combined shutout spun to that point by Mike Minor and three relievers.

Texas threatened in the 10th when DeShields followed Jeff Mathis’s single with one of his own. But Andrus grounded out to kill the rally.

Thus the game moved uneventfully to the bottom of the 12th, when Asdrubel Cabrera opened with a hit against Paul Fry, Baltimore’s fourth reliever. Fry fanned Ronald Guzman and retired Rougned Odor, but then hit Shin-Soo Choo with a pitch, moving the winning run into scoring position for DeShields.

At that instant, Texas’s chance of victory stood at 62 percent. Given the opportunity to settle the issue on his own, DeShields made the most of it. He ran a ground ball up the middle past Fry and into center field, Cabrera coming around with the winning run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

8. Austin Hedges, 39 percent

Washington’s bullpen has become notorious through the first two months of this season. Five of the Nats’ six most frequently used relievers have ERAs above 5.00 and WHIPs approaching 1.30 or higher.

The only exception, closer Sean Doolittle, has 13 of the club’s 14 saves. But not even Doolittle is perfect, as his performance against the San Diego Padres Friday illustrated.

Doolittle entered the game in the bottom of the ninth with Washington holding a 4-3 lead. Although their team remained fourth in the NL East, Nationals fans had reason for hope. Washington had won four of its most recent five games and 9 of 12 since late May.

All the Nationals needed to continue that run was for Doolittle to do his job.

It didn’t happen, As explained in greater detail momentarily, the Padres tied the game with two out on Josh Naylor’s base hit. With Austin Hedges at the plate, Naylor stole second, putting the winning run in scoring position.

Still needing that third out, now merely to send the game into extra innings, Doolittle fell behind Hedges 2-1 and fed Hedges a pitch he could propel sharply into left. It was deep enough for Naylor to race home with the winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

6. Josh Naylor, 40 percent

Two weeks into his big league career, Josh Naylor is finding the going a challenge. He’s batting .244, and that’s counting a three-hit afternoon in late May in Toronto. On Friday, however, Naylor tried out a more comfortable role in the Padres lineup: hero.

The Padres and Washington Nationals were locked in a 3-3 tie entering the ninth inning. Three Padres pitchers combined to shut out the Nationals until the seventh, when four hits, among them an RBI single by Yan Gomes and a 2-RBI double by Trea Turner, tied the score.

Then Brian Dozier doubled off Adam Warren to open the ninth. A sacrifice, a hit batter and a wild pitch later, Dozier was across the plate with the go-ahead run.

The Nationals turned the game over to their closer, Sean Doolittle, to put a wrap on things. Closing for the Nationals has been a treacherous pastime this season, but three batters later, Doolittle was within one out of sealing the deal, although Eric Hosmer carried the tying run at third base.

Naylor was hitless in three at bats with a strikeout. This time, however, he applied bat to ball for a game-tying single through shortstop. The Padres’ chances, which measured at just 16 percent seconds earlier, stood at 56 percent when the tying run touched the plate. When Naylor stole second and Austin Hedges singled to drive him in, the Padres had the victory on lockdown.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

5. Edwin Encarnacion, 42 percent

Seattle’s 14-inning tussle with Houston produced a pair of the week’s most mission-critical moments, and ironically both came at the hands of the eventual losing team. Karma is sometimes odd that way.

The first of those two developed in the bottom of the ninth inning. Trailing 5-1 at one point, the Mariners had battled back to within a run at 6-5 entering the bottom of the ninth.

The Astros had their closer, Roberto Osuna, primed for the task of snaring those final three outs. Already Osuna had rung up 16 saves on a 2.17 ERA and a barely visible 0.69 WHIP. Plainly, getting to him would be a challenge.

Osuna walked the leadoff hitter, Dylan Moore, but then settled in to retire Mallex Smith on a ground ball to first, Moore advancing to second. The next batter, Mac Williamson, grounded weakly to third for the second out, Moore holding.

With two out in the bottom of the ninth and the potential tying run stuck at second base, Seattle’s chances of eventually winning measured only 14 percent. But that formula didn’t count on the veteran Encarnacion. On the second pitch he saw, Encarnacion grounded a single past Osuna and into center field, Moore racing around with the tying run. The hit elevated Seattle’s chances of a win by 42 percent.

The game remained in doubt, and in fact there were several more plot twists and turns still to unfold. More on those shortly.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

4. Robinson Chirinos, 43 percent

Because baseball is a funny game, even the 19-44 Orioles have a chance against the 44-21 Astros.

That’s the best explanation or how the two teams stood tied at 3-3 entering the late innings of Friday’s game at Minute Maid Park.

The usually feeble Orioles got the jump on Astros starter Gerrit Cole, scoring three times in the first three innings. Then Cole steadied, eventually striking out 14. Meanwhile the Astros fought back, home runs by Josh Reddick and Tony Kemp combining to tie the game.

From that point the game proceeded quietly with neither team generating a hit until the eighth, and neither moving a runner into scoring position until Reddick got there on a hit and a stolen base in the bottom of the ninth.

Meanwhile Cionel Perez pitched three hitless relief innings for the Astros, carrying the game into the 11th, when Robinson Chirinos finally decided it.

Facing Brandon Kline with two out and Yuli Gurriel at first via a single, Chirinos slapped a drive past Orioles third baseman Rio Ruiz and into the corner. Gurriel’s slide disrupted Oriole catcher Chance Sisco’s effort to catch the ball and tag him, Sisco mishandling the throw as Gurriel slid home with the game-ending run.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

3. Marcus Semien, 44 percent

The Texas Rangers had no answer for Marcus Semien Friday night.

Oakland’s leadoff hitter produced a four-hit night including a pair of home runs, accounting for four of his team’s five RBIs. His fifth inning home run, a 438-foot blast, moved the A’s ahead 2-0.

But it was Semien’s fourth hit, in the top of the ninth inning, that settled the issue once and for all.
The game was tied 3-3 at that point, the Rangers having produced a three-run sixth. In the ninth, Texas called on Jose Leclerc to hold Oakland and give Texas a chance to win in the bottom half of the inning. Leclerc fanned Mark Canha, but then surrendered a double to Jurickson Profar before retiring Josh Phegley for the inning’s second out.

With two outs and the go-ahead run at second, Oakland’s chances of winning stood at 46 percent as Semien got his fifth chance to hit. As hot as Semien was, Leclerc worked him cautiously, the count eventually running to 3-2.

Finally Leclerc challenged Semien with a four-seamer over the heart of the plate. The A’s infielder took full advantage, and although this one carried a mere 376 feet, it was more than enough to ensure a 5-3 Athletics victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

2. Omar Narvaez, 49 percent

The AL West leading Houston Astros outlasted Seattle’s Mariners 8-7 in 14 innings Thursday. The outcome negated a Mariners comeback before the home gathering, and particularly sabotaged the work of Omar Narvaez to rally his Mariners.

An off-season pickup from the Chicago White Sox, Narvaez has been a constant in Seattle’s otherwise off-and-on performance. He’s batting .282 with a .360 on base average, and in Thursday’s game he produced two hits, one of them a temporary game-saver.

Narvaez initially made a mark in the bottom of the seventh, with Seattle trailing 5-1. His base hit filled the bases and set up a three-run inning that pulled the Mariners within a run.

As previously noted, the M’s tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. In the 10th, however, Josh Reddick’s sacrifice fly put Houston back in front 7-6 and left Seattle’s chances three outs from extinction.

Hector Rondon quickly got the first two of those outs, retiring Kyle Seager and Domingo Santana. That left the issue up to Narvaez, and he delivered a game-tying home run deep into the right field seats. Before Narvaez swung, the odds of a Mariner win were just five percent; he improved them to 54 percent.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, they never could produce the winning run. In the top of the 14th, Yuli Gurriel followed Myles Straw’s leadoff triple with a sacrifice fly that put the Astros ahead to stay.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-10

1. Vlad Guerrero Jr., 52 percent

Only five weeks into his major league career, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is already demonstrating the basis for all the hype that surrounded his call-up.

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Following a depressing first two weeks, Guerrero is batting .283 with seven home runs since May 11. On June 8 in front of the home crowd, Guerrero showed the first place New York Yankees what all the hype has been about.

Following LeMahieu’s three-run home run in the sixth, the Yankees led 8-7 entering the bottom of the eighth, and they had Zack Britton on the mound. In more than two dozen appearances, Britton has been a steady force in the dominant Yankee bullpen, with an ERA under 3.00 and 8.2 strikeouts every nine innings.

Britton, who had recorded the final out in the seventh, got Freddy Galvis on an easy ground ball to begin the eighth. But Danny Jansen grounded a base hit through shortstop, and when Lourdes Gurriel walked on a 3-2 pitch Guerrero came to bat with the tying run in scoring position.
The rookie wasted little time. On a 1-1 count, he was able to lift a good Britton sinker and propel it 434 feet for a three-run home run.

The blast gave Toronto a 9-7 advantage and instantaneously improved their odds of winning from just 41 percent to 93 percent. It also set off a small tidal wave; before the inning was out, Randal Grichuk and Brandon Drury had both also homered. The Jays won 11-8.