Pittsburgh Pirates: Chris Archer Was a Lesson for Baseball

Last year the Pittsburgh Pirates swung a deal to land Chris Archer, giving up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and minor leaguer Shane Baz. It was a deal that shocked everyone in baseball.

It was a deal that many labeled an outright win for the Tampa Bay Rays. So far, that label has been correct, Austin Meadows is slashing .326/.404/.591 and is looking like an All-Star starter, while Tyler Glasnow was the favorite for AL Cy Young with a 1.86 ERA and 10.2 strikeouts per nine before he went down with an injury. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh Pirates starter Chris Archer posted a 4.30 ERA last year and has a 5.73 so far this year.

The Pirates missed and they missed badly.

There is a similar situation brewing this season.

Marcus Stroman has a 3.18 ERA going into June 14th, with a 3.60 FIP and an average of seven strikeouts per nine innings. Prior to last year when he threw just over 100 innings and registered a 5.54 ERA Stroman was considered one of the better arms in baseball, throwing over 200 innings in 2016 and 2017, recording a 4.37 and 3.09 ERA respectively. Now with an ERA in the low 3s again and at just 28 years old, Stroman figures to be a well-sought commodity this coming trade deadline.

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Teams should learn from the lesson the Pirates laid out in the Chris Archer deal though. What’s the lesson? Proceed with caution.

The Pirates, for lack of better terms, were fleeced in the Archer trade. Sure, you could argue that with Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco there was no place for Meadows in the Pirates outfield. But then you remember that Dickerson just came off the injured list this week and that Polanco has never hit over .260 or had an OPS in the 800s. You could argue that Tyler Glasnow was never going to be an ace with the Pirates but that was because they never truly gave him the chance.

Either way Meadows and Glasnow aren’t the point here. The point is the Pittsburgh Pirates overvalued Archer and they overvalued him badly despite the fact that the last year he had a sub-4 ERA and allowed less than 1 homer per nine was in 2015.

Whichever teams are looking at Marcus Stroman are in even more treacherous waters.

Yes, Stroman has that shiny ERA and peripherals like a 57% ground ball rate to compliment it. He also is working the second straight year of a sub-3.50 ERA and even in 2016 when he posted a 4.37 ERA Stroman’s FIP was 3.71, which speaks to the fact that he was better than the ERA showed that year.

Which ties back to the fact that teams need to be careful in trying to trade for him. No doubt the Toronto Blue Jays and their GM Ross Atkins will look at the Archer trade and lick their chops at the prospective return.

Stroman’s a fine pitcher, and with control, through next season he’ll be a strong addition to the Phillies or San Diego Padres or Cincinnati Reds or New York Yankees or Texas Rangers, really anybody.

But again the main point is to not overvalue Stroman. The price the Pirates paid for Archer should probably be the ceiling or close to it for whoever will be acquiring Stroman. Because he may be pitching well but he’s allowing the second highest fly ball rate of his career and the highest hard-hit rate of his career. There are still things to be cautious of.

So, in conclusion, we have this:

1. The Pittsburgh Pirates overpaid for Chris Archer
2. Marcus Stroman is good but flawed
3. That doesn’t mean don’t trade for him
4. That means don’t overpay for him