MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-11 (June 9-15)
In week-11 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB from 6/9-6/15 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
This week’s iteration of “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits” includes a unique qualifier – a non-hit.
The official scorer ruled Francisco Lindor’s mission-critical plate appearance against the Yankees last Sunday an error rather than a hit.
The odder aspect of that play is that although it swung the odds heavily in favor of an Indians victory, Cleveland did not actually win the game. Beyond that, it was only one of five critical plays on this week’s top 10 list that — when all was said and done – did NOT lead to a victory.
In addition to that error call, this week’s edition includes six home runs, a double and two singles. In keeping with the decisive nature of the late innings, all 10 occurred in the seventh inning or later, two coming in extra innings.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
From 10 to 1, From 10 to 1, here’s your “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits” – including that non-hit — for week-11.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
10. Mitch Garver, 37 percent
The Twins’ Kyle Gibson and Kansas City’s Brad Keller held their respective thumbs on the other guy’s offense for seven innings Friday in Minneapolis. Keller shut out the Twins on just three hits, while Gibson allowed Kansas City only two hits.
Only four runners reached second base to that point, and only Byron Buxton got as far as third, his adventure due to a hit batter, a wild pitch and a fly ball.
Gibson continued his brilliance in the top of the eighth, setting down the Royals on a strikeout, a line drive and a grounder.
But Keller gave way to Jake Diekman in the inning’s bottom half. Diekman tried to follow the pitcher-dominated script, but issued a one-out walk to Max Kepler that gave Garver a chance to bat with two out and a runner on. Garver’s previous three trips to the plate had resulted in a whiff and a pair of flies to center that didn’t carry far enough.
His third one did carry far enough. On a 2-1 pitch Garver broke up the double shutout with a home run into the seats in center field.
The long ball gave Minnesota a 93 percent chance at victory, which Taylor Rogers sealed when he retired the Royals in order in the ninth.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
9. Brock Holt, 40 percent
Boston led 2-1 until the ninth, when the visiting Rangers scored twice to take a 3-2 lead.
In the bottom of the ninth, the home team’s flickering hopes for a victory were further slowed by a double play. After J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts singled, Rafael Devers authored the ground ball that left pinch runner Michael Chavis at third base.
It also made Brock Holt, pinch hitting for Sam Travis, Boston’s final chance against Rangers closer Shawn Kelley. He came through, lining a 1-1 pitch hard into center field for the game-tying single. His hit upgraded the Red Sox chances at victory by 40 percent, to 57 percent.
The Sox almost pulled out the victory in the 10th. Jesse Chavez allowed a one-out hit to Sandy Leon, walked Mookie Betts and with two out walked Chavis to load the bases. The next hitter, Xander Bogaerts, smoked a line drive to deep center, but Delino DeShields was able to run it down to send the game to the 11th.
But in that 11th, leadoff hitter Danny Santana doubled to right off Ryan Brasier, and Andrus followed with a run-producing base hit. In the bottom of the inning, Chris Martin made it stand up for a 4-3 Rangers victory.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
8. Wilson Ramos, 40 percent
Two frustrated teams met at Citi Field in New York during the mid-week. The Cardinals found themselves looking up at both the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central, the Mets trailed the Phillies and Braves in the NL East. And neither team had been able to sustain a record in excess of .500.
When the Cardinals put three runs on the board in the top of the fifth, it gave the visitors a 4-1 lead behind Steven Matz. But the Mets picked up one run in the bottom half of the inning, and in the seventh they went to work for real.
Facing Andrew Miller, Carlos Gomez began the inning by getting in the way of a pitch. Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto both followed with singles, loading the bases for Pete Alonso.
Facing reliever John Gant, the Mets rookie hit a ground ball to second baseman Kolten Wong for an apparent double play. But Wong threw the ball away, allowing Gomez to score and the other runners to advance.
Then Gant stabilized, striking out Dominic Smith and getting Todd Frazier to force McNeil at home. But Ramos delivered a base hit to right that scored Conforto and Alonso with the tying and go-ahead runs. Instantly the chances of a Mets win rose from 40 percent to 80 percent.
There remained, however, two innings to play. More on that momentarily.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
7. Mike Moustakas, 41 percent
Wednesday’s game pitted two divisional leaders, and it turned out to be a marathon. Houston held a 3-2 lead into the seventh when the Brewers produced the tying run on an Eric Thames home run.
Then for six full innings the pitching staffs took over. Neither team managed as much as a base hit until the ninth, when singles by Christian Yelich and Moustakas gave the Brewers a chance. But Roberto Osuna fanned Yasmani Grandal and Thames to silence that threat.
In the bottom of the 13th, Jake Marisnick delivered a one-out single and stole second to put the potential winning run in scoring position with one out. But Adrian Houser fanned Josh Reddick and got Alex Bregman on a line drive to shortstop for the third out.
Finally in the 14th the Brewers broke through. Yelich singled to right, and with one out Moustakas came to the plate in a situation where the odds of victory were precisely 50-50. Moustakas broke things up, lining a home run into the right field seats. That shifted the likelihood of a Milwaukee win to 91 percent. Before the inning was out, Jesus Aguilar drove another run home, the Brewers winning 6-3.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
6. Austin Riley, 43 percent
Atlanta’s Rookie of the Year candidate came up big Wednesday against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Braves, who had grabbed an early 6-2 lead, found themselves trailing the Pirates entering the bottom of the ninth thanks to Josh Bell’s home run in the top of that same inning.
With Clint Hurdle having burned ace closer Felipe Vazquez to get through the eighth inning, Hurdle turned to Kyle Crick to lock up the victory in the ninth.
Riley loomed as a tough first out. His first inning triple had already driven two runs across, and he had added a base hit in the third that led to another run.
Those hits merely continued a strong debut season for Riley, who is hitting in the.290s with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs since being called up in mid-May.
Against Crick, Riley patiently worked the count to an ultra-favorable 3-1, then let fly at the heater he knew was coming. The result was a game-tying home run that shifted the odds of a Braves win from only 22 percent to 65 percent.
In the 11th, the Braves cashed those 65 percent odds. After Pirates pitcher Michael Feliz hit Riley to start the inning, Ozzie Albies doubled to dead center and Riley came sprinting home.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
5. Dexter Fowler, 44 percent
As noted earlier, Ramos’ hit had given the Mets a 5-4 lead Friday and left them six outs short of a badly needed victory. Mets manager Mickey Callaway called on his eighth inning specialist, Jeurys Familiar, to get the game into the ninth.
Instead Familia made hash of things, beginning with the home run ball threw to the first batter he faced, Paul DeJong.
Having blown the lead, Familia retired Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, leaving him just one out away from escaping the inning with at least a tie. Then Yadier Molina doubled to center, and after Harrison Bader walked on a full count Familia faced Fowler.
The Cardinals outfielder didn’t wait long to make something happen. He got a meaty first pitch fastball and drove it into the right-center field seats for a three-run home run that put St. Louis on top 8-5. It also improved the chances of a Cardinal victory from just 48 percent before Fowler stepped up to 92 percent when he touched home.
In the top of the ninth inning, Wong atoned for his earlier error with a home run of his own to make the final score 9-5.
Coupled with the Cardinals’ win earlier that day in the completion of a game that had been suspended the previous evening, the outcome moved St. Louis above .500.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
4. Byron Buxton, 45 percent
It’s been a great start for the Twins, so perhaps the fact that they were able to come back from a 6-1 deficit to the Seattle Mariners entering the bottom of the eighth inning Wednesday shouldn’t be surprising.
The Twins produced three runs on five eighth-inning hits to move within two at 6-4. Yet even when Miguel Sano opened the bottom of the ninth with a base hit, the Twins chances of winning only measured 19 percent.
Buxton was next up against Mariners reliever Anthony Bass. Given closer Roenis Elias’ availability in the bullpen, Bass was an interesting choice by manager Scott Servais to get the final three outs, but Bass had gotten the last out in the eighth.
Bass threw a first pitch strike, then tried to get another one past Buxton and gave Servais immediate reason to regret his confidence. Buxton deposited it in the left-center field seats for a tying home run.
Having failed to do his job, Bass proceeded to retire the next three hitters without incident, sending the game into extra innings.
In the top of the 10th, a couple of walks, a couple of hits and a critical error by Sano allowed three Mariners runs to score. In the bottom half, Elias put down the Twins in order, setting the 9-6 final score.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
3. Francisco Lindor, 46 percent
It’s been a frustrating season for the Cleveland Indians, and Sunday’s 7-6 defeat at the hands of the Yankees didn’t help.
The Indians came back from an early 5-0 deficit to tie New York in the seventh, only to give up the lead again in the top of the ninth. When Jose Ramirez stepped up to the plate to start the bottom of the ninth, he faced Yankee closer Aroldis Chapman.
The Indians had only an 18 percent chance of winning the game at that point. And things got worse when Ramirez singled only to be picked off first base. That reduced the prospect of a Cleveland win to just 11 percent.
But strange happenings were about to unfold, of which that pickoff was merely the first.
Roberto Perez followed by working Chapman for a base on balls. Tyler Naquin pinch ran, and Jake Bauers popped up a bunt toward first, only to beat it out when the ball fell.
With runners at first and second, Kevin Plawecki flied easily to left for the second out. Lindor was next and he struck a modest ground ball to Didi Gregorius for what looked like a simple game-ending force at second. But Gregorius dropped the ball, and by the time he recovered Ramirez had scored the game-tying run. Suddenly the math favored the Indians, improving their odds of winning from 18 to 62 percent.
This time, though, the odds got it wrong. With Naquin carrying the winning run at third, Chapman whiffed Oscar Mercado to end the inning. In the 10th, Aaron Hicks doubled Cameron Maybin home, and Stephen Tarpley shut down the Indians in the bottom of the 10th to seal the outcome.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
2. Martin Prado, 50 percent
This was a very big week for hits in losing causes. Prado delivered one of those in the 10th inning of Miami’s 7-6, 12 inning loss to Atlanta Sunday.
That was the game in which Miami carried a 5-1 lead into the ninth inning only to see the Braves rally for four runs. The key blow was Ronald Acuna Jr.’s three-run home run.
Atlanta added a go-ahead run in the top of the 10th, leaving the Marlins only a 19 percent chance at victory as the inning’s bottom half began. When Luke Jackson struck out Starlin Castro, Miami’s odds fell to 10 percent, rising only to 20 percent when Harold Ramirez singled. That’s where Prado came in.
He worked the count to 2-2 on Jackson, then lined a two-base hit into the left-center field gap that sent Ramirez home with the tying run. With just one out and the winner in scoring position, the odds of a Marlins win suddenly leaped to 69 percent. Unfortunately for Miami, Jackson struck out both Miguel Rojas and Bryan Holaday.
Ten in the top of the 12th, Matthew Joyce singled home Ozzie Albies with Atlanta’s second extra inning go-ahead run. In the bottom of the 12th, Josh Tomlin got the save.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-11
1. Anthony Rizzo, 55 percent
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For most of Saturday night, the Cubs appeared on the way to their fifth defeat in what to that point had been a desolate western swing. After dropping two of three to the Rockies in Denver, they came to Los Angeles and gave up early leads both Thursday and Friday night to the rampaging Dodgers.
Facing Walker Buehler Saturday night, the Cubs solved the problem of surrendering early leads by failing to score at all. Buehler shut them out for seven innings and Alex Verdugo’s 459-foot fourth-inning home run off Yu Darvish allowed closer Kenley Jansen to carry a 1-0 lead into the ninth.
But this was one of those rare occasions when Jansen didn’t have his stuff. He hit the first batter, Kris Bryant, with a tailing inside fastball, then fed Rizzo a 2-0 89 mph pitch he could turn on. Rizzo deposited it deep in the seats down Dodger Stadium’s right field line for a two-run home run.
Before the pitch, the Cubs’ chances for victory measured only 28 percent. Rizzo’s homer turned them to 83 percent, requiring only Cubs closer Pedro Strop to navigate the bottom of the ninth. Strop did issue a two-out walk to Max Muncy but whiffed pinch hitter Matt Beaty for the game’s final out.
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The win lifted Chicago back into a first-place tie with the Milwaukee Brewers.