In week-11 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB from 6/9-6/15 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
This week’s iteration of “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits” includes a unique qualifier – a non-hit.
The official scorer ruled Francisco Lindor’s mission-critical plate appearance against the Yankees last Sunday an error rather than a hit.
The odder aspect of that play is that although it swung the odds heavily in favor of an Indians victory, Cleveland did not actually win the game. Beyond that, it was only one of five critical plays on this week’s top 10 list that — when all was said and done – did NOT lead to a victory.
In addition to that error call, this week’s edition includes six home runs, a double and two singles. In keeping with the decisive nature of the late innings, all 10 occurred in the seventh inning or later, two coming in extra innings.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
From 10 to 1, From 10 to 1, here’s your “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits” – including that non-hit — for week-11.