Phillies: June’s trading partners and pieces
While the Phillies needs will determine their deadline approach, time controls the availability of the asset needed by general manager Matt Klentak to compete during the stretch drive and beyond.
Hold-or-fold teams:
Some Philadelphia Phillies fans and media exhibit a knee-jerk reaction to an injury, a slump or consecutive unacceptable outcomes or performances. However, moving prospects for a temporary shortcoming creates a roster problem when the organization reactivates the returning star.
IN OTHER WORDS: “The sign of a good decision is the multiplicity of reasons for it.” – Mary Doria Russell
With 91 games remaining, winning the National League East involves acquiring one major piece. Currently, the Fightins can compete with their outfield alignment and a healthy bullpen in the second half, but a rotation southpaw in the two slot must come from another club. Who and when?
Expecting an opportunity for a rookie pitcher as an in-house remedy, some fans are missing the short leash on starters for the bottom two rungs of the five-man staff from the popularity-challenged skipper. As for the GM, he is minimizing the lack of acceptable outings by quickly replacing struggling hurlers.
Currently, three starters are available from three franchises who are open for business. Two are left-handers but Madison Bumgarner is the only rental. However, he has successful big-game and postseason experience.
Concerning major league organizations, some are obvious contenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers, while others are basically out of it like the Detroit Tigers. That stated, a third group is within striking distance of a wild-card berth, but they have no shortage of competition: 11 clubs for three MLB spots.
Presently, the four teams in the Phils’ divisional race have one thing in common: relief-corps problems. But Klentak’s difficulties have been due to seven hurlers on the IL (injured list). In other words, the GM has more reinforcements coming besides the two who returned.
In July, however, three more starters including two portsiders and a right-handed ace could be the missing pieces for playoff-bound franchises. And, perhaps, the cost in dollars and prospects will be more realistic instead of the probable sky-high expectations from June sellers.
Now and July:
For the Phillies, the name most mentioned is Bumgarner, 29, of the San Francisco Giants; he has an affordable rental contract of $2 million per month. And even though he isn’t the 2015 Bumgarner, he has fired 93 innings, is 3-6 with a 3.87 ERA, and has made 15 starts like the other five. Three rings talk, no?
On the Toronto Blue Jays, righty Marcus Stroman, 28, is 4-8 with a 3.18 ERA for 87 2/3 frames. Pricewise, he is earning $7.4 million ($1.23 million per month) for his third of four arbitration years. But his higher ERA estimators are enough for an analytics-oriented exec to offer less for his services.
For the last available starter, currently, Matthew Boyd, 28, of the Tigers is earning $2.6 million in the first of four arbitration campaigns running through 2022. He is 5-5 with a 3.35 ERA for 88 2/3 innings and made 86 starts before this 162. Translation: a player makes an impact in or after his third summer: 60-90 starts.
If the Texas Rangers fall behind their four-club competition for the second AL wild card, Mike Minor, 31, could be on Klentak’s radar to slot between Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. The lefty is 6-4 with a 2.63 ERA for 95 2/3 frames, will earn $9.5 million for 2020, and is at $1.58 million per month in 2019.
As for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Robbie Ray, 27, is 5-4 with a 3.83 ERA for 82 1/3 innings. His annual salary is $6.05 million ($1 million a month) for the second of three arbitration seasons. Basically, he’s the Diamondbacks two-slot moundsman, but his numbers resemble a third starter.
Because Arizona is in a five-team competition for two NL wild cards, Zack Greinke, 35, also isn’t available yet and is probably too expensive for most contenders. Yes, he’s an 8-2 ace with a 2.65 ERA for 82 1/3 frames, but his pact calls for $32 million each for 2020 and 2021 plus $5.25 million per month this 162.
Competition for Klentak:
While many organizations including the Phillies need rotation help, some have financial restrictions, self-imposed or Luxury Tax-related. For instance, the Boston Red Sox have pen shortcomings, but some available pitchers are above their price limitations.
Although Boston has two considerations, the Milwaukee Brewers have three: a dollar ceiling despite needing arms for the five-man staff and relief corps. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins are finally ready to swap for bullpen pieces.
Regarding Klentak’s competition, the New York Yankees are also suffering through numerous IL stints but have thrived nonetheless. However, their main deficiency is a top-of-the-rotation arm, and their preference is arguably a right-hander. That said, their GM will still be in contact with many teams for any starter.
Of the seven NL clubs in a race, divisional and/or wild-card, Milwaukee wants to improve their five-man staff, but they aren’t likely to exceed their financial barrier for a top hurler. Yet because the Cubs signed Craig Kimbrel, the Brewers may spend more for any easier postseason berth. Ergo, win the division!
The St. Louis Cardinals will be another competitor for a starter if they are within striking distance of a wild card. For the red pinstripes, though, organizations like Texas and Arizona have a similar –but opposite– situation to St. Louis. So, the Cards will wait at least until early July before dealing prospects and spending money.
Unlike the Rangers, Cardinals and D-backs, the Phils could bide their time for a more appealing trade because Texas and Arizona might be sellers in three weeks. Meantime, management continues monitoring a partially settled market.
Divisional foes:
In the NL East, the Phillies are the only contender with relief-corps problems they can solve by reactivating moundsmen from the IL. Edubray Ramos and Pat Neshek are already back, plus two others are close to returning. However, Robertson is the fireman who’ll help Neris extinguish stretch-drive threats in July.
While the New York Mets are again experiencing health problems with their starters, their pen is iffy until Edwin Diaz toes the rubber. Yes, they have some reliable arms, but overreliance on them will produce other difficulties. Plus until they play above .500, their execs probably won’t add to the bullpen.
Against the Washington Nationals, Philadelphians might notice the abyss between the starters and closer Sean Doolittle. Presently, they have a top-tier rotation and an solid offense, but their relief corps is last in the majors. In other words, it’s hittin’ time when the bullpen gate swings open aside from Doolittle.
As for Atlanta, their bats will eventually cool off, and their hurlers will be the difference between victory and defeat. Especially, the lack of relief pitching will haunt them, but A.J. Minter is roughly the only exception. And he isn’t a given either.
When Kapler showed his uneasiness after a walk-off loss to the Braves in a big game with a blown lead, the pressure to win was facially visible. As for Klentak, the quickness of his decision-making reveals the stress of contending for the NL pennant.
To sum up, the lineup will produce enough runs, and a loaded pen will protect leads. But what will Klentak’s open rotation spot be after he fills it with a solid acquisition? A calculation changer!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* Right-handed starter
Phillies June Targets: (Stats through June 17)
- Bumgarner, almost 30: 15 Gms., 93 Inn., 3-6, a 3.87 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.07 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.17 WHIP.
- *Stroman, 28: 15 Gms., 87 2/3 Inn., 4-8, a 3.18 ERA, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.13 xFIP, a 4.44 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
- Boyd, 28: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 5-5, a 3.35 ERA, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.24 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
Phillies July Targets: (Stats through June 17)
- Minor, 31.5: 15 Gms., 95 2/3 Inn., 6-4, a 2.63 ERA, a 3.71 FIP, a 4.02 xFIP, a 4.12 SIERA, a 2.3 fWAR and a 1.18 WHIP.
- Ray, 27.5: 15 Gms., 82 1/3 Inn., 5-4, a 3.83 ERA, a 3.42 FIP, a 3.70 xFIP, a 3.96 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.
- *Grienke, 35.5: 15 Gms., 95 Inn., 8-2, a 2.65 ERA, a 3.35 FIP, a 3.65 xFIP, a 3.85 SIERA, a 2.1 fWAR and a 0.88 WHIP.
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