Nationals Ace In The Hole: Scherzer or Strasburg?

A Word on Stephen Strasburg

The fanfare over Strasburg’s rapid ascendance to the Washington rotation was immediately overshadowed by the drafting of uber-prospect Bryce Harper (Strasburg’s MLB debut actually came the day after Harper was drafted). Harper wouldn’t make it to the majors until 2012, but Strasburg’s star never came to eclipse that of his younger counterpart.

Then there’s the fact that Strasburg’s never really gotten to head his own rotation. He claimed ace status from Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman in 2014, but after losing his only playoff start 2-3 and lasting only 5 innings (1 earned run), the Nats immediately went out and gave Scherzer $210MM to steer the ship, relegating Strasburg ever since to first mate status.

The last issue is the only one that’s performance related, and I say “related” because it’s not about his actual performance – it’s about his durability.

After losing his sophomore season to Tommy John surgery, Rizzo chose to cap his innings limit at 160 in 2012 regardless of playoff positioning, robbing Strasburg of the opportunity to shine in the postseason, where players have the best chance of cementing their status.

It’s extremely difficult to shake a public label, and Rizzo’s protection of Strasburg – right or wrong – stuck Strasburg with the enduring stink of fragility. Rizzo’s efforts to keep him from the canon of fire-hurlers with glass arms cemented the public’s perception of him as that very thing.

Now, there is some credence to the perception of Strasburg’s fragility. All in all, he’s taken 11 trips to the injured list in his 10 years in the majors, only once surpassing the 200-inning mark.

Of course, 200 innings is no longer the benchmark it once was, and in the 7 seasons since his lost year in 2012, he has taken between 22 and 34 turns a year, averaging 27 starts and 163 innings per year. He misses maybe 5 starts a season, but when he’s healthy, he averages more than 6 innings per start.