MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-12
1. Matt Chapman, 85 percent
This weekend’s series between the Rays and Athletics in Oakland is a mid-season battle for position in the American League wild-card chase.
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The Rays entered the four-game series positioned first in that race, owning a 43-31 record and the first wild-card spot. Oakland’s position is more precarious. The A’s came in at 39-36 and battling Boston, Cleveland and Texas for the second wild card.
Through eight innings of virtual shutdown pitching by Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas, there was no movement. The only scoring, a solo home run for each team, had come off the bats of Jurickson Profar and Tommy Pham.
In the top of the ninth, though, A’s manager Bob Melvin lifted Montas in favor of Blake Treinen. The Rays pounced, cobbling two walks, three steals and two base hits into a three-run inning. Rays manager Kevin Cash turned the 4-1 lead over to Diego Castilla for the wrapup.
Teams holding a three-run lead with three outs remaining win about 97 percent of the time. But there are exceptions. In the bottom of the ninth, Castillo sandwiched a pair of walks around a groundout, bringing Oakland’s tying run to the plate in the person of Beau Taylor. He took a called third rike, reducing the odds of an Oakland comeback to just 4 percent.
The next hitter was Marcus Semien, and he delivered a game-extending base hit to center field. Robbie Grossman, who had received the first walk, scored and Chapman came up as the potential winning run.
With two on but two out, the odds of an Oakland win still remained only 15 percent. Chapman, however, turned them around with a 1-0 walk-off home run over the left-center field wall. Oakland still trailed Boston by two games for that second wild card, but at least they didn’t lose any ground.