Phillies prediction: GM’s trade target

Elimination process:               

For the Phillies execs, finding the ingredients to complete a satisfactory swap isn’t easy. For instance, the asking price, the competition, the fit and the time frame are some determining factors. Translation: good except for?

Firstly, Zack Greinke is 35 and is under contract for $85.5 million through 2021: He doesn’t fit agewise or financially. And the Arizona Diamondbacks will probably eat roughly 50 percent and expect prospects to rebuild or retool. However, they’re in the wild-card hunt and won’t move him without a situational change.

Although the Texas Rangers are one of three American League clubs within 2 games of the second wild card, Mike Minor will be 32 on Dec. 26 and under commitment through ’20. Basically, the lefty would only be a stopgap for 2020’s rotation.

With Arizona, Robbie Ray will be 28 on Oct. 1 and will be under $10 million for ’20 like Minor. But his numbers are third starter-like at 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA and similar ERA estimators. So, while the Diamondbacks are two games behind the second wild card, they are one game below .500 and won’t trade anyone until July.

Considering rentals, organizations are unwilling to offer a blue-chipper for Madison Bumgarner. Plus he’s 3-7 with a 4.28 ERA and will be 30 on Aug. 1 with mid-rotation stats like Jake Arrieta. Yes, he was solid in Octobers. But 2016 was his last ace-like 162.

Right-hander Marcus Stroman, 28, will probably be in the $10-14 million range for 2020, his last arbitration year; and he is 5-9 with a 3.04 ERA in the AL East. So, his higher ERA estimators make sense, as does the New York Yankees’ interest: They have three left-handed starters and need a righty.