MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-13 (June 23-29)

In week-13 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB from 6/23-6/29 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” there’s more proof that baseball is a strange and unpredictable game: two of the four most impactful base hits this week were delivered on behalf of teams that did not end up winning those games.

If there were ever a week to re-enforce the notion of never giving up, this was it. Both the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies survived statistically devastating blows to their chances for victory. They weren’t alone, either. The Kansas City Royals won a game in which they trailed by three runs with just three outs remaining …and wrapped it up before expending any of those three outs.

Veterans and rookies, subs and regulars alike turned games this week. With one of the game’s deepest lineups, the Atlanta Braves were rescued by a bench-warmer. The Chicago Cubs leaned on their biggest star; the Kansas City Royals on perhaps their only star.

The Toronto Blue Jays saw one of their future stars rescue them from the jaws of defeat.

This list of the week’s 10 greatest hits is based on the Weighted Win Probability Added of each hit.  Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those Statcast-era stats; it measures the change in percentage likelihood of a victory before and immediately following the hit in question.

Although the nature of each the greatest hits are important in determining their weight, other factors also come into play. Those factors include the inning, the score at the time of the hit, as well as the number of runners on base, their positions, and the number of outs in the inning.

Where ties in the ranking of greatest hits exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the likelihood of an eventual victory following the base hit.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

10. Johan Camargo, 41 percent

The Atlanta Braves have seized command of the NL East race with a 20-7 month of June. One key reason has been the power provided by winter acquisition Josh Donaldson, whose 24 June hits included eight home runs, with 16 RBIs following.

But Donaldson’s resurgence has meant less playing time for Johan Camargo, the second year third baseman reduced to a utility role. Camargo is batting just .241 with only a .660 OPS in that part-time duty.

Even bad times, however, carry their occasional rewards. One of Camargo’s occurred Sunday in Washington when the Braves concluded a series with the Nationals.

The game stood tied at 2-2 through the requisite nine innings. In the 10th, Nationals pitcher Tanner Rainey struck out Brian McCann, but then walked Ozzie Albies on a 3-2 pitch. With the pitcher scheduled to bat next, Braves manager Brian Snitker made the logical move, calling on Camargo to keep the inning moving.

Camargo did that and more, driving Rainey’s 2-1 pitch into the seats in right field for a two-run home run. The extra run proved critical in the inning’s bottom half when Braves closer Luke Jackson surrendered a run before retiring the game’s final two batters. The tying and winning runs were on base when he did.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

9. Yuli Gurriel, 42 percent

The Houston Astros entered Friday’s game against Seattle having lost nine of their most recent 11 starts, outcomes that slowed their apparent march to another AL West title. And for most of Friday’s game, they appeared destined to stretch that string of futility to 10 defeats in 12 starts.

But when the Astros needed it most, they got a pair of major boosts, the pivotal one coming off the bat of Yuli Gurriel.

A succession of  Mariner relievers, led by Tommy Milone‘s five innings, silenced Houston’s offense on just six hits through the first seven innings. Seattle’s offense didn’t do much, but Austin Nola‘s third-inning home run off Wade Miley did give the M’s a 1-0 advantage that Milone and that pen nursed into the eighth.

But a single-run lead is always subject to change on short notice. With two out in the bottom of the eighth, Josh Reddick finally gave Astros fans something to cheer about, turning around an Anthony Bass pitch and delivering it into the right-field seats for a game-tying home run.

Seattle reliever Matt Festa survived a leadoff single in the bottom of the ninth. But Festa could not survive Gurriel. After Michael Brantley grounded out to open the 10th, Gurriel authored a walk-out home run on a 2-2 count.

For the short term, anyway, the homer reversed Houston’s fortunes. One night later Gurriel produced a second consecutive walk-off win, although this one required a mere double in the bottom of the 10th to accomplish.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

7. Maikel Franco, 45 percent

Thursday’s Mets-Phillies game was probably the strangest of the week, and from a purely statistical standpoint, it certainly delivered the least likely outcome. More on that as we proceed.

For the immediate purposes, it’s enough to record that the Mets entered the bottom of the ninth with a 3-1 lead and their ‘closer’ — if that isn’t abusing the term in the case of the Mets pen — Edwin Diaz, on the mound.

Diaz entered with 16 saves, but also with a 1-5 record, an ERA approaching 5.00 and three blown saves. So any appearance on his part contains the potential for tragedy, as defined by Mets fans. This one approached Hamlet level.

Diaz began by walking Cesar Hernandez on a 3-2 slider in the dirt. Maikel Franco was the next hitter. The Hernandez walk did enhance Philadelphia’s chances of winning the game, but only by  9 percent, from 10 to 19 percent.

Franco swung at Diaz’s first pitch and missed, then fouled off the second. The 0-2 offering was a 95 mph four-seamer that Franco drove toward the left-center field wall. When umpires ruled that the ball barely cleared the barrier, Mets manager Mickey Callaway appealed, but the judgment was upheld following a video review.

The home run tied the game and improved Philly’s chances of winning by an additional 45 percent, all the way to 64 percent. New York still had a legitimate chance at winning if Diaz could retire two more hitters and send the game into extra innings.

No such luck. After J.T. Realmuto struck out, Sean Rodriguez walked and Scott Kingery singled him to third. The next batter, Jean Segura, hit a no-doubt, walk-off home run to seal a five-run Phillies ninth and a 6-3 victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

6. Nelson Cruz, 46 percent

The Minnesota Twins lead the AL Central; the Tampa Bay Rays are solidly in the wild card fight. So their three-game mid-week series in Minneapolis, in which the Twins won twice, was vital to both clubs.

The series turned in the seventh inning of Wednesday’s second game. The Twins had won the first one 9-4, and they had grabbed a quick 3-0 first inning lead on Rays starter Charlie Morton.

But Tampa rallied to take a 4-3 lead entering the bottom of the seventh thanks in part to Willy Adames’ go-ahead home run in the top of that inning. Adames’ homer lifted Tampa’s chances of the evening the series to 66 percent.

But Jason Castro touched Morton for a base hit to start the bottom of the seventh, and when Ji-Man Choi dropped Brandon Lowe’s throw on Jake Cave’s infield grounder, Minnesota had runners at first and second with none out.

Morton fanned Jonathan Schoop before managed Kevin Cash lifted him in favor of Colin Poche. He surrendered a base hit to Luis Arraez that filled the bases but retired Jorge Polanco on an infield pop before he too was lifted, this time for Emilio Pagan.

Pagan quickly worked the count on Nelson Cruz to 0-2, then caught too much of the plate with his third pitch. Cruz turned it around into the gap in left-center for a double that sent all three runners across.

Prior to that 0-2 pitch, Minnesota’s chances of overcoming the one-run deficit were just 42 percent. Cruz improved them to 88 percent and following two innings of solid Twins bullpen work Minnesota had its 6-4 victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

5. Hunter Dozier, 48 percent

The Royals suffered through another 2-4 week, and for one of the rare times, Hunter Dozier suffered right along with his teammates.

Dozier is having a brilliant season for the desolate Royals, carrying a .292 batting average and a .943 OPS. This week, however, he managed only four hits in 24 at-bats. Fortunately, two of those were Dozier’s 12th and 13th home runs, and one turned around one of the team’s only two wins.

It came in the ninth inning of a Tuesday game in Cleveland that the Royals trailed 6-3. When you carry a three-run lead into the ninth against any team, your odds of winning are about 97 percent; against this season’s Royals, the outcome is a near-certainty.

But not an absolute certainty, as Indians closer Brad Hand learned.

Hand faced five batters in that ninth and failed to retire any of them. In fact, Kansas City batters required only 12 pitches to erase the lead. It was a result in stark contrast to Indians pitching to that point, which had scattered eight hits across the first eight innings. Yet in quick succession Martin Maldonado doubled on Hand’s first pitch, Whit Merrifield singled on an 0-2 count, Nicky Lopez singled on a 1-2 count, and Alex Gordon singled on a 1-1 pitch.

That made the score 6-4 and loaded the bases with none out for Dozier. The fusillade also improved KC’s chances of a win, although they still measured just 43 percent. Then Dozier rocketed Hand’s first pitch deep into the left-center field seats for a grand slam home run, and a 43 percent chance became a 91 percent likelihood.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

4. Xander Bogaerts, 49 percent

The eighth inning strung together by Boston’s offense against the Chicago White Sox Thursday at Fenway Park was, if not the season’s highest scoring, at least one of its most efficient.

The Red Sox produced three runs on two singles, a double and a fielder’s choice. Xander Bogaerts‘ single, the last of those three hits, moved the odds of a Boston victory dramatically, if not, as it turned out, decisively.

When the inning began, the odds favored Chicago, holding a 6-4 lead, by an imposing 81 percent. Christian Vazquez‘s leadoff lineout only lengthened those odds to 86 percent while reducing the home team to just five outs.

Then the Red Sox got busy, Facing Evan Marshall, Eduardo Nunez singled. Pinch hitter Brock Holt bounced a two-base hit over the short right field wall, sending Nunez to third.

With Mookie Betts representing the go-ahead run at the plate, White Sox manager Rick Renteria summoned his closer, Alex Colome.  He did induce a Betts ground ball to third baseman Yoan Moncada, but Nunes beat Moncada’s throw home, cutting the gap to 6-5 as Betts stopped safely at first.

The next hitter, Rafael Devers, tapped weakly in front of the plate, but it had the effect of a sacrifice, moving Brian Johnson — pinch-running for Holt — to third and Betts to second.

The Red Sox still trailed 6-5, but with the tying and lead runs in scoring position and Bogaerts at bat the odds of an eventual Boston win had improved, if only to 35 percent. Bogaerts delivered the go-ahead single, a ground ball past Colome that threw the odds in Boston’s favor for the first time all night.

There remained, however, an inning to play, and that inning would go well for only one of the Sox. More on that in a moment.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

3. Javier Baez, 52 percent

The Chicago Cubs have spent most of June battling for first place in the NL Central. But they have not played like a first-place team, carrying a mediocre 13-17 record since May 23. Coming into Sunday’s series-closer with the Mets, that included losses in three of the first five games of their homestand, where Chicago had until last week been dominant.

To make matters worse, the Cubs trailed 3-2 entering the bottom of the eighth inning against the Mets.

The bullpen, of course, has been a New York weakness all season, so when starter Jacob deGrom turned that lead over to Seth Lugo to start the seventh, it had to be with less than brimming confidence.

Lugo had plowed through the seventh thanks to a double-play grounder. And after Kyle Schwarber opened the eighth with a base hit, Lugo retired Kris Bryant on a fly ball for the first out. But Anthony Rizzo walked, setting the stage for Javier Baez, the Cubs’ MVP candidate.

Lugo got quickly ahead on two sliders, then hung a third one mid-thigh on the outside part of the plate.  Baez was ready; he drove it into the right-field bleachers for his 19th home run of the season and, coincidentally, the 100th of his career.

The homer boosted  Chicago’s chances of winning the game by 51 percent, from 42 percent to 93 percent. Three Met outs later, they did.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

2. Jose Abreu, 62 percent

Ten days ago, the White Sox were a .500 team daring to think of themselves as a plausible post-season contender. But a 2-7 start to a 10-game road trip dampened those dreams, and a blown 5-2 lead in Boston Thursday on the trip’s final leg didn’t re-stoke the enthusiasm.

Fortunately, veteran Jose Abreu is still around.

Abreu’s first-inning double had driven in Chicago’s first run. In the seventh, after Boston closed within one run, Abreu’s base hit drove Leury Garcia home to set Chicago’s lead at two.

The Red Sox, however, had an answer for most every Abreu move. As described earlier, in the eighth Boston turned three hits into three game-leading runs, giving the home team a one-run lead into the ninth.

When Abreu’s turn came around again with one out and a runner on first base, that advantage translated to only an 18 percent chance of a White Sox win.

As he had all night, Abreu produced the perfect counter to those odds. Facing Matt Barnes, he worked the count to 2-2 and then slammed a home run over the Green Monster in left. The home run shifted the odds of a White Sox victory to a full 80 percent.

In the bottom of the inning, Sox closer Alex Colome walked Boston’s leadoff hitter and then retired the side uneventfully to make the 8-7 Chicago victory official. That 3-7 road trip may not have been inspiring, but it sure sounded better than 2-8.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-13

1. Todd Frazier, 63 percent

That’s correct, the greatest hit of this “MLB Rankings” for week-13 was not delivered in a winning cause.

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By all odds, it should have been. Todd Frazier‘s ninth-inning home run Thursday off Hector Neris not only gave the visiting Mets a 2-1 lead, but it single-handedly improved New York’s chances of winning the game from the mere 19 percent they were before Frazier stepped in all the way to 82 percent when he touched home plate.

The homer came with one out in the ninth and Michael Conforto on base thanks to a single moments earlier. Philadelphia’s narrow 1-0 lead rested on Bryce Harper‘s 448-foot home run off Zach Wheeler in the home half of the sixth.

Aside from that, Wheeler and Aaron Nola had matched shutout innings into the bottom of the seventh, when Wheeler was lifted. Nola departed at the start of the eighth, Neris getting the call for the ninth and retiring the first batter he faced before allowing Conforto’s single.

His relief problems were further compounded when Dominic Smith and Wilson Ramos followed Frazier’s hit with singles, and Amed Rosario‘s ground out got Smith home with an insurance run.

As it turned out, however, all those apparent Mets heroics actually only set the stage for Franco’s previously noted heroics