Phillies: Buyers through July despite the standings
While Phillies fans panic, one rotation southpaw is a trade waiting to happen, and general manager Matt Klentak can make this deal whether or not the team is in divisional or wild-card contention.
In-season acquisition:
The Philadelphia Phillies made great strides during the offseason, but now expectations vary depending on optimism, pessimism or both alternating. Yet when stormy weather occurs, the complaining, finger-pointing and/or scapegoating begin anew with the usual quick fixes recommended.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Losing streaks are funny. If you lose at the beginning, you got off to a bad start. If you lose in the middle of the season, you’re in a slump. If you lose at the end, you’re choking.” – Gene “Skip” Mauch
After exiting a seven-game valley, the Fightins –like I said– were going to win again, but this won’t be the only rough patch before season’s end. Yes, annual losing spells are nothing out of the ordinary, so don’t get too comfortable: take nothing for granted. Or it will jump up and bite you!
Whether the Phils are in the hunt or not, they will need a rotation lefty for 2020 and beyond. Basically, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor, Robbie Ray and Matthew Boyd are the candidates Klentak is evaluating. But only Boyd and Minor are two-slot arms, and Boyd has 3.5 years of team control.
Presently, 2019 is the first of a four-campaign window for a World Series Championship. Many stars will be here during that time frame, and some pieces currently surrounding them will be as well. Yes, those key players will be in their prime between ages 27 through 32 in those summers.
In addition to a $2 million threshold increase for 2020, the red pinstripes will have another $24.5 million because of three departing relievers and the current $9.6 million under the competitive-balance threshold if it remains without change. But salary increases and contract extensions will require a large percentage of it.
Because the exec doesn’t have a strong left-handed starter in the minors, the plan for the deadline and/or the winter is to pick up a portsider for the five-man staff. And those options are in short supply. Translation: The sought-after hurler must come from outside the organization.
Of the four southpaws who might be available, Boyd is the only one at the beginning of his prime who fits perfectly in the four-year span of control regardless of 2019’s standings. Klentak will need a left-handed starter in ’20, no? That stated, what will it take to pry him loose from the Detroit Tigers?
Season one:
With the Phillies being 43-38 after 81 contests, the faithful only need to double the home runs and RBIs for a quick approximation of a player’s 2019. Bryce Harper‘s projection is 28 bombs and 110 RBIs. Agewise, he’s 26 and will be 32 for 2025: a seven-summer time frame!
Concerning Rhys Hoskins, doubling his production equals 36 homers and 104 RBIs. He also has a seven-campaign stretch of prime-age 162s. However, he’ll be on the market after the first five, unless he re-ups with the Fightins for 2024. He’s a Scott Boras client and will be free agent at age 31.
As for Scott Kingery, 25, the Phils have him under contract and club options through his prime: eight years. And since management slotted him first, the good guys are 5-2 and he’s hitting .281 (nine for 32). Ergo, the swagger is back! For ’20, perhaps, Klentak could swap Cesar Hernandez and open up second base.
Rotation-wise, ace Aaron Nola, 26, will overcome cold weather during the playoffs because playing meaningful baseball in September and October is growth-wise another hurdle to clear. Plus he has a commitment and club option for five seasons from 2019 through 2023.
Regarding Zach Eflin, 25, he’s halfway to 14 victories with a 3.34 ERA (current), but Nola he isn’t. Eflin can dominate but not for Nola-like lengths. However, he will be a free agent for ’23, unless he re-ups with the good guys: He has at least a four-summer window in Philly.
J.T. Realmuto, 28, projects to 20 long balls and 72 RBIs, but he’s never had expectational pressure. Yet when the Fightins are clicking, he plays like a man who wants postseason action. Yes, the GM must commit to the catcher beyond 2020 and wouldn’t have moved his top prospect and Alfaro otherwise.
Future five:
On the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies have a handful of potential starters, but they would require 60-90 major league starts: players make an impact in or after the third year. And the franchise is finally near the end of that development with Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez.
Phillies starts at 30 per season:
- Nola with 110 for 3.5 campaigns of development.
- Velasquez with 85 for almost 3.
- Eickhoff with 76 for 2.5.
- Pivetta with 68 for 2.
- Eflin with 62 for 2.
As you can see above, all except for Nola have experienced between 60 to 90 outings. Additionally, Pivetta and Velasquez are competing for the bottom slot on the five-man staff for ’20 if Klentak adds a rotation lefty. But they could slot fourth and fifth in 2021 without Jake Arrieta on board.
In 2020, though, Arrieta could slot fourth if the Fightins add a two-slot hurler by the deadline or over the winter. Yeah, fourth starter! Eflin would be the three behind Nola and a portsider.
While Eflin has a 3.34 ERA and Boyd has a 3.72 ERA, the American League ERA estimate is 0.50 higher due to the designated hitter. So, the National League equivalent for Boyd is a 3.22 ERA. Plus the southpaw has made 103 starts with 17 in his fourth developmental 162.
When the front office views 2020’s starting staff, they can envision Nola, Boyd and Eflin from the front to the middle of the rotation. And Arrieta would be the four-slot arm for the first half, the stretch drive, and the postseason.
Critical strategy:
When it comes to the key part of Klentak’s blueprint, the Phillies must extend Realmuto for three seasons to cover ’20 through ’23. But their top-tier catcher wants Posey money: nine campaigns for $167 million. However, Buster inked his deal when he was 26, not 28. A two-year difference!
Basically, Posey money is either $167 million total or $18.55 million per 162 for seven seasons instead of nine: $129.9 million. That stated, $20 million a campaign for six summers would cover Realmuto from 2020 through 2025. Agewise, he’ll be 29 in ’20 and 34 in ’25: four prime years.
Doubting Thomases bemoan the Phils’ stance on the Luxury Tax, but they feel that way every 162 despite recent examples. For instance, the Boston Red Sox refused to take on the highest penalty of 75 percent to re-sign Kimbrel for $100 million ($20 million average) and a total with tax of $175 million ($35 million each).
Acquiring Boyd for 2019 through 2022 (age 32) would solidify the five-man staff for 3.5 seasons despite July 31’s standings. But if they are available, Minor, 31, and/or Ray, a mid-rotation piece, will only be under contract through 2020. Also, Boyd’s pact for ’19 may double to $5.2 million for ’20 due to arbitration.
To sum up, Klentak can’t concentrate on 2019 alone like a fan, or he’ll be on the outside looking in. And he’s the general manager of the entire franchise, not just the parent club. So, what must he plan for besides July, August, September and October? The organization’s direction!
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