MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-14

In week-13 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB from 6/30-7/6 based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” Cody Bellinger did it with his bat. Jose Iglesias did it with Yasiel Puig’s legs. Jeff McNeil managed only a 68 mph blooper that barely traveled 230 feet but counted like a 110-mph missile into the gap.

Those players delivered a diverse lot of critical base hits for their teams in this final week prior to the All-Star break. Bellinger’s home run was actually his second of the game and came one night after he won a game in the most innocuous of ways, with a base on balls.

The hit that did in Arizona Wednesday night was no walk; it whistled more than 440 feet into the Dodger Stadium seats.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

9. Nate Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays, 43 percent

The Tampa Bay Rays trail the AL East leading New York Yankees because the Rays  can’t beat them. Entering Saturday night’s game, the two teams had met 11 times in 2019, New York winning nine of them.

It took a team effort to slow that Yankee momentum in Tampa and rookie Nate Lowe certainly played a part.

Behind C. C. Sabathia, the Yanks led 2-1 entering the bottom of the seventh.

Sabathia entered the inning having allowed just four hits, and Aaron Hicks gave him a lead in the top of the inning. With two out and runners at first and third, Hicks rolled a ground ball single into right field.

In the bottom of the inning, Sabathia struck out Kevin Kiermaier and retired Willy Adames on a fly ball to the deepest part of center in Tropicana Field. But Travis d’Arnaud, who would later a play a more decisive role, gave Lowe a chance with a line single ro right.

Lowe maximized the opportunity. On a 1-2 pitch, Lowe homered deep into the right field seats. The hit put Tampa Bay ahead by a run, improved the chances of a Rays victory from 32 to 75 percent, and put Tampa within six outs of wrapping up the win.

It would not, however, be quite that easy. More on that momentarily.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

T-7, Trea Turner, Washington Nationals, 43 percent

Following their slow start, the Nationals have launched a mid-season drive into contention in the NL East. They went 18-8 in June and have added four more victories in their first five July games.

Winning that consistently requires beating up on the league’s weak teams, and that means beating the Miami Marlins. Turner’s efforts Tuesday kicked off a three-game sweep of the division tail-enders.

It wasn’t easy. The Nats led 2-1 entering the eighth inning only to see Cesar Puello’s leadoff double turn into the tying run. In the bottom of the eighth, the Nats moved the go-ahead run to third base with two out, but Nick Anderson retired Ryan Zimmerman on a ground ball.

Marlins third baseman Neil Walker’s error on Yan Gomes’ grounder with one out in the bottom of the ninth opened the door for Turner, who batted after Jose Quijada retired Brian Dozier for the second out.

With two out, a runner on third and a tie score in the bottom of the ninth, the odds of a home team victory are 57 percent. Turner worked the count to 3-2, then lined a double into the right-center field gap. The hit chased Gomes all the way home with the walk-off winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

T-7. Jose Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds, 43 percent

The Reds’ 4-3 week lifted them into contention in the compressed NL Central. Although fifth, they are just four and one-half games out of first place.

At least in part, they have Iglesias to thank for that status. On Tuesday, with substantial assistance from Yasiel Puig and Christian Yelich, he provided the walk-off hit that set up a three-games-to-one series victory over the division rival Milwaukee Brewers.

It was a back-and-forth struggle, Milwaukee leading 4-2 until the Reds scored in the seventh and eighth innings to affix a tie. The ninth and tenth were uneventful, and Raisel Iglesias plowed through the heart of the Brewers order without incident in the top of the 11th.

Corbin Burnes fanned Eugenio Suarez to open the bottom of the 11th, then retired Scooter Gennett on a foul pop to third baseman Mike Moustakas for the second out. But Puig’s line drive single to center gave Cincinnati a chance to close the game out if Iglesias could deliver.

Even at that point, the Reds’ chances of victory were only 57 percent, slightly better than half. But Iglesias grounded a base hit into right that enabled Puig to take third. Then when Yelich’s weak, off-target throw home eluded cutoff man Eric Thames, Puig broke for home and easily scored the winning run.

Yelich was charged with an error on the throw, and Puig deservedly was credited with heads-up baserunning. The guy who got the hit, Iglesias, was denied an RBI thanks to the error, a recognition that Puig should have been held at third base. No matter: It was a game-winner.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

6. Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals, 45 percent

Through eight innings, Mariners starter Mike Leake – with an ounce of help from Austin Adams – held the Cardinals scoreless. Leake allowed just five hits, the last, a two-out single by Harrison Bader, prompting Leake’s removal in favor of Adams, who ended the inning by getting Yairo Munoz to line out.

That left Adams just three outs shy of preserving Seattle’s 2-0 lead, but Adams could not get them. Jose Martinez opened the ninth with a base hit, and after Adams fanned Paul deJong, Paul Goldschmidt also singled. When Adams walked Tyler O’Neill to  load the bases, Seattle manager Scott Servais replaced him with Roenis Elias.

By this point, however, the Cardinals had zoomed all the way from ineptitude to invincibility. Dexter Fowler got a run home with a base hit, then Yadier Molina tied the game on a sacrifice fly.

With runners at second and third, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt called on Tommy Edman to pinch hit for Wong. It was an inspired decision. Edman planted Elias’ 2-2 pitch in the seats in left-center for a three-run home run that capped St. Louis’ five-run comeback.  It was the visitors’ fourth hit of the inning, just one fewer than they had the entire game to that point.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

5. Travis d’Arnaud, Tampa Bay Rays, 46 percent

When last we mentioned Travis d’Arnaud, he was singling to set up Nate Lowe’s go-ahead home run against the Yankees in St. Petersburg Saturday. It was d’Arnaud’s second hit of the day; he had driven in Tampa Bay’s first run in the second inning with his first base hit.

But beating the New York Yankees is rarely that easy. In the eighth, Rays reliever Oliver Drake walked Brett Gardner, who stole second, only to die there. Then in the ninth inning, Drake retired D.J. LeMahieu and Aaron Judge before Kevin Cash decided Drake had thrown enough and called on Colin Poche to get the final out.

That supposed final out was Aaron Hicks, who made Cash and Poche pay for the strategy. Hicks homered into the left field seats to re-tie the game.

Yanks manager Aaron Boone summoned Chad Green to nurse the game into extra innings. But d’Arnaud was having none of it. After Kevin Kiermaier grounded out and Willy Adames singled, d’Arnaud lined Green’s first pitch over the wall in right-center for a two-run, walk-off game winner.

The hit evened the series and gave Tampa Bay a chance for a badly needed series victory entering the All Star break Sunday.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

4. Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox, 47 percent

Even before Yoan Moncada‘s heroics, Wednesday had been a profitable one for the White Sox. Forced by bad weather into playing a double-header against the visiting Detroit Tigers, the Sox took the first game 7-5 behind rookie pitcher Dylan Cease.

But they trailed 5-2 in the seventh inning of the second game until Ryan Cordell‘s two-run home run touched off a game-tying rally. They fell behind again 6-5 when John Hicks‘ two-out single drove home Brandon Dixon in the top of the 10th.

But that only set the stage for Moncada, part of the gang of youngsters Sox management hopes will lift the team out of its lengthy doldrums.  In the bottom of the 10th, Moncada demonstrated his potential.

Tigers closer Shane Greene retired Chicago’s first batter, Leury Garcia, on a harmless ground ball to first base. Moncada, next up, got ahead in the count 2-1, looked for a fast ball and got it. The result: a game-tying home run deep into the right-center field seats at Guaranteed Rate Field. That hit turned the odds of a White Sox victory from a mere 12 percent all the way  to 59 percent, a 47 percent swing.

Two innings later, Jose Abreu‘s three-run home run converted those improved odds into reality, Chicago completing its sweep of the day with an 8-5 win in the 12th.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

3. Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates, 49 percent

If not for their play against the Brewers, Pittsburgh might be leading the NL Central right now.

As it is, the Pirates are just four games behind the division leaders, and that’s despite a 2-9 record head-to-head with the Brewers. On Friday in Pittsburgh, Jung Ho Kang did his utmost to reverse that trend.

The prospects for a reversal looked slim when Milwaukee carried a 6-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth. With ace closer Josh  Hader having been called on to pitch the seventh and eighth, Craig Counsell turned the seemingly safe lead over to Deolis Guerra. That’s when things began to happen.

With one out, Melky Cabrera, Adam Frazier and pinch hitter Jacob Stallings all singled, loading the bases for the heart of the Pirates order. Starling Marte got one run home with a sacrifice fly, then Josh Bell produced a three-run home run to move the home team within a run at 6-5.

With just one out to get, the odds of a Brewer victory remained high, 95 percent to be precise. But Kang turned those odds with a home run of his own over the Clemente Wall in right, capping the five-run comeback and tying the game.

Of such things are inspirational stories written…except this time. In the top of the 10th, Lorenzo Cain’s base hit drove in Orlando Arcia with the run that  put Milwaukee back on top 7-6. Given a second chance, the Brewers’ pen held, although not before the Pirates put the winning run on base. With Pittsburgh bereft of logical pinch hitters, Junior Guerra fanned pitcher Joe Musgrove for the final out.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

2. Matt Wieters, St. Louis Cardinals, 49 percent

San Diego scored twice in the first and led 3-0 before the visiting Cardinals rallied to send the game into extra innings.

Part of that insanely tight five-way race in the NL Central, the Cardinals had already lost the first two games of their San Diego weekend, and plainly couldn’t tolerate a sweep. Yet they almost got swept; in the bottom of the eighth, John Gant and Carlos Martinez walked the bases full before Martinez induced an inning-ending double play ball from Manuel Margot.

The game proceeded through uneventful ninth and 10th innings. The 11th opened equally uneventfully, Padres reliever Brad Wieck retiring Tyler O’Neill and Yadier Molina. Then Kolten Wong gave Cardinal fans reason for hope by beating out an infield hit down the first base line.

That brought up Matt Wieters, who had been held hitless in four previous at bats including a strikeout. This time he atoned, powering a 1-2 pitch into the Western Metal Supply building seats down the left field line for a two-run home run.

In the bottom of the 11th, Cardinal relievers Tyler Webb and Dominic Leone held the Padres scoreless, Leone retiring Wil Myers with a runner on base for the game’s final out.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-14

1. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets, 52 percent

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With only three victories in the first nine games against the Atlanta Braves, the Mets had been having a difficult time with the division leaders. That record included losses in the first two games of the teams’ three-game weekend series at Citi Field.

To make matters worse, New York trailed 5-3 entering the bottom of the eighth inning of Sunday’s series wrapup, leaving them in imminent danger of falling 13 games behind the Braves.

Sean Newcomb drew the assignment of navigating Atlanta through the eighth, but he wasn’t up to it. The first Mets hitter, Todd Frazier, homered. Newcomb hit Robinson Cano and yielded an infield hit to Amed Rosario before recording the first out on Thomas Nido’s failed sacrifice bunt.

With the lead runs on base, Newcomb gave way to A.J. Minter, who walked Michael Conforto to load the bases. Even so, the Braves retained a 64 percent chance of winning the game until McNeil swung those odds with a bloop hit to right field that scored both Rosario and pinch runner Adeiny Hechavarria.

The next hitter, Pete Alonso, doubled driving home two insurance runs and the Mets bullpen, to the surprise of some at Citi Field, held that 8-5 lead in the ninth.