MLB: The Solution to Tanking and the Free Agency Crisis

What’s driving MLB’s flurry of contract extensions. Also, let’s propose a solution that will END tanking in baseball while solving the Free Agency Crisis.

Earlier this year, the New York Yankees agreed to a deal with their soon-to-be Free Agent CF Aaron Hicks to a seven-year contract extension.

At first, many were confused; why would the Yankees give a player who has never been an All-Star and is entering his age 29 season- a seven-year extension? They already have a big-time outfielder locked in for the next nine years in Giancarlo Stanton, in addition to (face of the franchise) Aaron Judge whom you can be sure that the Yankees will be extending, and now, all of a sudden, you’ve locked in three out of four of your outfielders (including DH) for the next five-plus years!

That was the second extension the Yankees have inked in the last month; they gave Luis Severino, (who is currently on the IL…) whom they hope will be a front of the rotation guy for years to come, a 4 years/40 million dollar extension. That gives the Yankees an extra year of control on their young hurler.

The above-mentioned Severino deal was modeled after the contract extension of Philadelphia Phillies 25-year-old ace, Aaron Nola. Nola, who had a terrific 2018 campaign and finished third in the National League Cy Young Award voting, had the highest WAR for a Starting Pitcher. The Phillies gave the young righty a four year/45 million dollar extension which similar to the Severino deal, grants them an extra year of control.

Hicks, Nola, and Severino are just a few examples of players whose teams tried to avoid free agency, if not for only one more year- and as was evident in this year’s off-season, a single season by a starting pitcher is a very big deal. The New York Yankees, who were the favorites to land Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin, would not offer more than five years for what was commonly regarded as the best starting pitcher on the market. Corbin would then go on to sign with the Washington Nationals on a six-year deal.

But these three are not alone; Jose Altuve, Whit Merrifield, Eugenio Suarez, Paul DeJong, Ronald Acuna, and Blake Snell, are a few more examples of teams taking a leap of faith and signing these players to 4+ years, just so they gain a few extra years of control. Eloy Jimenez and Scott Kingery received extensions before they even had a single at-bat!

Why would teams be willing to give extensions now when they still have multiple years of control (Besides for Hicks who is a free agent after the 2019 season) and have the capability to extend later?

Why Teams are Willing to Give Extentions

The past two off-seasons have been notoriously slow and much more club-friendly than player-friendly. Players who are 31+ years old are having a hard time finding more than two years on a contract, and the two biggest names this off-season, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, (both of whom are 26-years old) only got signed in the middle of spring training!

Unfortunately for the players though, the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which was agreed to by the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), is not very player-friendly and does not give teams incentive to want to spend- and on top of that, the MLB penalizes the teams that DO spend by having a luxury tax and limiting their spending.

The next CBA is in December 2021, during which, the players are likely going to demand that the luxury tax be raised considerably and possibly that the MLB penalize teams that either doesn’t spend a minimum amount of money or win the minimum amount of games.

Once that happens, the average contract (and by default the massive ones) will be increased, possibly significantly for some of baseball’s biggest stars like Francisco Lindor, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger. These players are going to seek upwards of 400 million dollar deals. So, teams like The Yankees, Phillies, Braves, and Reds are trying to lock up their young stars before the CBA so they don’t have to pay what would likely be a higher average salary and are instead paying less than the going rate now.

Expect more teams to start locking up their young stars to long term contracts.

Look for players like Christian Yelich and Kris Bryant to be the next ones to get long term extensions in the near future.