New York Mets: Who will be moved by the deadline?
The New York Mets’ season has fallen off the rails, and it appears they will be sellers approaching the trade deadline. Who will be gone come July 31st?
Citing that 2019 has not gone according to plan for the New York Mets would be an understatement. Rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen conducted a bold offseason consisting of a plethora of moves that established his ‘win-now’ mantra — only for it to backfire spectacularly. The majority of BVW’s winter endeavors have not panned out, to say the least, thus the Mets sit a country mile out of contention entering the second-half with a 40-50 record.
Although a sliver of hope remains that the Mets can turn it around and fight for a playoff spot — “I feel like we can make a run at this thing” is what manager Mickey Callaway stated just this past Sunday — it’s hard to believe they won’t be sellers by the July 31 trade deadline. Only the Miami Marlins have a worse record than them in the entire National League, after all.
While the Mets’ offseason additions grabbed headlines, the club’s midseason subtractions will also be fascinating. Few players performed well in the first half, and the ones who did stand out — Jacob DeGrom, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil — represent the nucleus of this team’s future. The Mets will look to squeeze as much value out of their trade chips as they can, which may not be an easy task given the underperformance of several potential departees.
There stand to be a myriad of New York Mets who could find themselves on a one-way trip out of Queens within the next few weeks. Continue reading to find out which players are most likely to be moved from the trade block.*
*Statistics current as of July 12, 2019
#4: Jason Vargas, SP
Jason Vargas has actually exceeded expectations this season, unlike the rest of the players on this list. Unfortunately, Jason Vargas is still Jason Vargas, unlike the rest of the players on this list.
In all seriousness, Vargas is in the midst of a renaissance campaign. The 36-year old has made 14 starts and holds a 3.77 ERA that would stand as his best such mark since 2014, along with a 1.31 WHIP, .718 opp. OPS and 63 strikeouts in 71.2 innings.
The New York Mets’ 2019 starting rotation has been in disarray, for the most part, which makes Vargas’ relative success a boon for a club whose pitching staff has been one of the worst across the senior circuit. Vargas posted a 2.70 ERA in June which he kicked off with throwing a complete game shutout in which he surrendered just one walk and recorded eight punchouts.
The thing about Vargas is that he can’t really be trusted, as his 14th year in the big leagues has been consistently inconsistent. He can’t be trusted much off the field either, as the veteran has found himself at the center of serious controversy in the clubhouse and he is seemingly in the need of a change of scenery. Vargas has been slightly above average this season (108 ERA+), which is sadly that’s the best the Mets have to offer on the trade block.
A contender looking to acquire the southpaw prior to July 31st would be doing so as a way to add depth to their pitching staff, slotting him in as a 5th starter or perhaps a swingman acting as an insurance clause in case a rotation piece gets hurt. The return coming to the Mets wouldn’t include any high-profile assets, but anything is better than letting Vargas walk.
#3: Todd Frazier, 3B
After missing the inaugural several weeks of the season, Todd Frazier is having one of the better seasons of his career. The Toms River, New Jersey native has hit 11 home runs at the halfway point, which is far fewer than he had in his peak years of 2014-16 but he’s also only played 66 of his team’s first 90 games. Frazier is on pace to have his best batting average (.255) since 2014 as well as his best OPS (.783) and OPS + (111) since 2015, and although his power stroke isn’t what it used to be his hitting has become more complete than recent seasons.
With just a few months left on his contract — which was negotiated by his former agent, Brodie Van Wagenen — the Toddfather appears to be a prime trade candidate. He was on the move two deadlines ago, going from the Southside to the Bronx, and the Toms River, New Jersey native is surely on his way out after putting together a commendable first half.
Frazier could provide assistance to a contender looking to add a quality corner infielder. The 33-year-old rakes against southpaws (.333/.406/.544 this season) and could confidently be plugged into the middle of the order on a mostly everyday basis. The New York Mets will hopefully get some sort of value out of Frazier, as there are numerous clubs who could use his services which translate to a platoon/pinch hitter and depth corner infielder at worst.
He could even provide intangible value as a veteran, as Frazier possesses leadership qualities that may be valued by a young club such as the Atlanta Braves or Minnesota Twins. He may not be liked by Jake Arrieta or Adam Eaton, but Frazier is a stand-up character who could act as a glue guy and mentor for a team who could use some guidance as they make a push to the playoffs.
#2: Zack Wheeler, SP
Zack Wheeler certainly isn’t having the year a young pitcher would want to have heading into free agency for the first time in their career, yet here he is with a 4.69 ERA through 19 starts.
Wheeler is coming off of his best season ever as a Met in which he went 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but unfortunately the 29-year old hasn’t been able to replicate that in 2019. His H/9 has jumped from 7.4 to 8.9, HR/9 from 0.7 to 1.2, and ERA+ down to 86 from 112.
It hasn’t all been bad for Wheeler, who’s had a confusing campaign consisting of regression in some areas and improvements in others. For example, he’s striking out batters at a much higher rate, indicated by a 9.8 K/9 that’s jumped up a point from ’18. Wheeler’s also walking fewer batters and is on pace to throw the most innings of his big league career. His FIP (3.65) is drastically lower than his ERA, suggesting he’s run into bad luck and hasn’t been able to rely on his bullpen to retire inherited runners.
As he’s always been, Wheeler is an arm with high upside who hasn’t been able to tap into his full potential. His ceiling may be lower since having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2015, but the missile-throwing righty remains a pitcher who is a force to be reckoned with at his best — he just hasn’t been at his best frequently this year.
Contenders will certainly come calling for Wheeler within the next few weeks, especially if he can string together some good starts coming out of the All-Star break. Once regarded as part of the Mets’ future plans, the relationship between the two parties hasn’t followed the path fans hoped for, and it appears Wheeler’s time in New York will reluctantly come to an end sometime.
On the bright side, a team impressed with Wheeler’s rocket arm and underlying numbers could offer a return of high upside, something the Mets would welcome openly given the few good pieces they have to trade.
#1: Noah Syndergaard
The more the New York Mets’ struggles continued within the past month, the louder the Noah Syndergaard trade speculation has become. Though there have been rumors for some time regarding Thor, who hasn’t exactly reached his perceived ceiling in New York, this narrative has intensified recently with Van Wagenen and the Mets having set an asking price for the 26-year old:
“According to teams in touch with the Mets, the asking price for a July trade for Syndergaard is multiple top prospects. Rival executives say that they are skeptical Syndergaard can bring that return, given his middling performance this season.” -SNY’s Andy Martino
That second sentence stands true, as Syndergaard is having the worst year of his career by a longshot and his numbers hardly resemble the pitcher we’ve come to know him to be. After averaging a 134 ERA+ in his first four seasons in the Majors, Thor’s 87 ERA+ this season illustrates his severe underperformance. In 17 starts, he has a 4.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, and 3.37 K/BB — all of which are the worst such marks he’s posted in the big leagues.
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There’s reason to believe Syndergaard can bounce back from his atrocious first half, but it seems as if the Mets may be ready to part ways with him regardless. While he certainly hasn’t been at his best this year, trading the once-phenom would provide the biggest return of any Mets who isn’t off limits.
It seems as if Van Wagenen and the Mets have already received interest from teams regarding Syndergaard. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has reported both the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers are interested in the hard-throwing righty, and if he has a pre-2019 Thor-like season he could be immensely valuable at the front of the rotation piece of a team looking to make a deep postseason run.
On top of potentially helping a club reach the playoffs this season, Syndergaard won’t be a free agent until 2022 thus could be desired by an organization who has with a rich farm system and a prospective future, and no one embodies that better than the San Diego Padres.
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The New York Mets have a gargantuan hole to climb out of to become relevant in the National League, and as a result, it makes more sense for them to “cuncel da saeson” and sell off players they can retrieve some value from. While it’ll be interesting to follow the changes within the New York Mets’ clubhouse over the coming weeks, none will reverberate quite as much as if Noah Syndergaard gets dealt by July 31st.