In week-15 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” we touch on how If the Washington Nationals do reach post-season play this fall, they may look back on Juan Soto’s home run Saturday night as the season’s defining moment. The Philadelphia Phillies may feel exactly the same, if for utterly different reasons.
If nothing else, Soto’s home run was at least the week’s most critical.
The Nationals trailed the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 when Soto delivered a two-run home run to turn the game’s outcome in the top of the ninth inning.
The victory continued Washington’s momentum, which has now reached 12 victories in the team’s last 14 games. The only frustrating part of the streak has been the Nats’ inability to make up much ground on the division-leading Atlanta Braves, who have gone 10-4 over the same period.
On the plus side, the Nationals have enhanced their wild card prospects, leading that race.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of that so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.