MLB: a modest proposal to rein in the home run onslaught

It’s time to put a minimum distance requirement on a home run in MLB; the ball has to fly at least 390 feet or it’s only a triple.

Let’s be honest…the home run in MLB is getting out of hand.

Just Tuesday night there were 46* of them in 15 games; that’s more than three per game. One year ago the comparable figure was 2.2; just a decade ago it was under two.

And for the record, Tuesday’s home run production was not especially unusual. To date, the average number of home runs in a major league game is 2.76.

As in economics, the more you produce of something, the less its value. Home runs simply aren’t as impressive or interesting today as they once were.

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The problem isn’t merely that home runs have become too common in MLB, it’s also that they’ve become too easy. That’s particularly the case in a season of juiced balls, or whatever the factor is that’s driving the increase. Again referencing Tuesday’s home run onslaught, the averaged distance traveled by those home runs was 403 feet. Basically, that’s a ball that would leave almost any part of almost any field.

In general, it’s impossible to retrofit ballparks to adjust for the increased carry. That means we need to consider other steps if we want to return home run production even to recent normal levels, much less historical ones.

This requires a modest rules change proposal, and I have one for consideration. Henceforward, all home runs measuring less than 390 feet shall be ruled triples.

How would this change be measured? By Statcast, obviously. That service already provides virtually instantaneous data on all home runs struck in regular major league ballparks. The only exceptions are for that handful of games played in Japan, Mexico, England or other remote locations.

Would such a change have a significant impact on scoring? Hardly any, actually. Again, using Tuesday’s ballgames as a basis, there were 14 home runs that carried less than 390 feet. A total of 17 runs scored due to those 14. That’s out of 68 runs produced by Tuesday’s 46 home runs. Reconstructing the innings in which those home runs were hit demonstrates that had this rule been in effect Tuesday, at least 11 of those runs would have scored anyway….and a 12th probably would have. So we’re talking about four runs here…five on the outside.

Nor would such a change have made much of an impact on the games’ outcome. None of the four or runs that the rule probably would have prevented contributed to the eventual margin of victory. In fact, the final margin of victory in those games was a fraction more than five runs.

The only potential exception involved Kyle Schwarber’s walk-off home run in Chicago’s 4-3 victory over Cincinnati at Wrigley Field. Schwarber hit that ball into the basket in left field, a carry of 359 feet. Had he been stopped at third, the Cubs would have had the winning run there with none out and their two, three and four hitters coming up. That’s an extremely desirable situation, but less than a full-out lock.

What would MLB gain from this change? In a word, strategy. There is no strategy attached to a home run. But getting a baserunner home from third base with none, one or two out exemplifies the strategic aspect of baseball. The game would be better, more exciting, and more cerebral.

There is also an element of justice-involved. The shortest home run hit Tuesday, by Cleveland’s Orlando Mercado, barely cleared the 325-foot right-field barrier in Cleveland. Yet because there was a runner on base, it counted for more than teammate Tyler Naquin’s bases-empty 412-foot blast in the same game.

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*That’s not counting Whit Merrifield’s inside-the-park home run.

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