Phillies: Players control GM’s deadline moves

Completing the first half with an 8-5 mark, the Phillies returned from the All-Star break to face 10 defining contests out of 15, and general manager Matt Klentak will base his deadline approach on these results.

Stretch drive:

While the Philadelphia Phillies faithful bemoan not dominating the National League East, they might not realize their club is one of five battling for two NL Wild Card berths. In fact, those other four franchises are at .500 or above. Under the microscope, however, no organization is the division champion just yet.

IN OTHER WORDS: “If I lose today, I can look forward to winning tomorrow, and if I win today, I can expect to lose tomorrow. A sure thing is no fun.” – Leonard Marx

If you began this 162 with win-now expectations of a World Series appearance, you believed that was the guaranteed minimum from the Fightins. Realistically, capturing the NL East was a four-team competition in April. But harder with injuries, no?

Concluding the campaign is over, some fans ask if the red pinstripes should be sellers. Apparently, they either don’t consider the NL Wild Card Game as contending or assume other clubs are automatically better.

In the NL East, the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals appear to be unbeatable. However, this assumption depends on Atlanta and Washington not having a cold spell. On the other hand, the hometown nine must hold off three franchises at .500 or better for the second wild card.

Regarding injuries, the good guys have lost the leadoff man who initiated many rallies, a new left fielder, and eight relievers including two top fireman. And their second-best starter will pitch through a bone spur (elbow) for three months. Basically, the offense, defense, rotation and relief corps are not close to full strength.

A gripe of some supporters is that the organization should exceed the competitive-balance threshold and give them a one-game shot at the NLDS. However, this is an annual ritual, not a one-off chance. In 2019’s five-game series, the opponent for the NL Wild Card victor will probably be the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Klentak will be a diligent buyer if the Phils have a reasonable possibility at the divisional title or to add a 2020 piece. And he’ll trade decent prospects for that two-slot hurler, or he’ll deal average MiLB talent and take on dollars for stopgap arms: a wild-card shot. So, the direction will depend on his players, and they know it.

Division or NL Wild Card:           

While the Phillies faithful believe the Braves are a solid team, Atlanta also has shortcomings. To illustrate, their pitching has flaws in the five-man staff and at the back end of the pen. However, their fans think the offense will score enough runs –despite Austin Riley‘s decline– and compensate for these deficiencies.

Riley’s monthly production:  (Stats through July 17)

• May: 15 Gms., 59 AB, .356 Avg., 7 HR, 20 RBI and a 1.143 OPS.
• June: 28 Gms., 106 AB, .226 Avg., 7 HR, 17 RBI and a .778 OPS.
• July: 12 Gms., 44 AB, .159 Avg., 2 HR, 6 RBI and a .520 OPS.

They used a six-man rotation to finish 2018 but have five hurlers this season. Of those five, rookie Max Fried had produced a solid April but has struggled since: seven poor outings out of his last 15. So far, Mike Soroka (10-1, 2.24 ERA) has fired 96 1/3 innings after 56 1/3 frames in ’18: 200 innings?

A previously demoted A.J. Minter with a 3.65 ERA since his reactivation and closer Luke Jackson with his six blown saves would make Philly fans beg for Hector Neris. Basically, Jackson needs a two-run lead because he allows an earned run during many opportunities. Translation: Atlanta should acquire two relievers.

Even though the Nationals have a solid offense, defense and five-man staff, in the pen they can only rely on closer Sean Doolittle. Often, their manager must get every out he can from a starter via higher pitch counts to avoid exposing the relievers. Despite that, they provably are on a run of 31-12 after a 19-31 start.

While the Braves and Nats have relief-corps question marks, the Fightins’ difficulties are due to eight injured hurlers. But they have David Robertson returning by July’s end, and his reactivation will be a major addition. Realistically, an improved pen will favor the good guys for the second wild card.

The Phils are 50-47, the Milwaukee Brewers are 50-47, the St. Louis Cardinals are 48-46, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are 49-47. Other than Milwaukee, the others haven’t surpassed .500 by much to date.

Misreading expectations:       

When the Phillies announced their win-now plan, many read the organization’s strategy to imply the NL pennant, but what did the execs mean? Well, they committed $488 million to reach the NLCS in ’19. Of course, they realized the team required decent health, playing up to their potential, and good fortune.

Franchises make adjustments after the first half because they experience problems in their active roster due to injury or ineffectiveness. For instance, no one expected Aaron Nola to struggle into mid-June or the bullpen with 11 qualified relievers to lose eight with lengthy absences. Unfortunately, they did!

The dynamic offense counted on by management lost Andrew McCutchen, and no one else here can lead off at this level of excellence. But even though the Fightins have secondary options, Cutch ignited this deadly lineup beyond offseason projections. However, he’ll be here for 2020 and 2021.

As for Jake Arrieta, he will be pitching another three months through injury, and this one will limit him to 5-6 innings per appearance. On the other hand, the red pinstripes now need a number two with more urgency, and they can slot Arrieta third or fourth depending on Zach Eflin‘s performance.

Despite the missing pieces, the middle of the order still hasn’t had three hot hitters simultaneously, and the Phils haven’t gone on an extended winning streak. And when it happens, the locals will expect victories, not defeats. That stated, the club will be better than their worse but less than their best.

Per team policy, Klentak doesn’t comment on trade negotiations, but other front offices reveal the suitors’ names for their players. Plus Arizona and the Baltimore Orioles have recently stated the GM has interest in lefty Robbie Ray and fireman Mychal Givens respectively, who are under control beyond 2019.

2020:

Concerning acquisitions based on recent activity, the Phillies have interest in pitchers who will also be on the active roster next summer. The other options are the all-in approach if the organization is within reach of an NLDS berth or uses stopgaps to plug holes for the wild-card sweepstakes.

Remembering last August and September, many fans equate that to 2018’s rough patch at campaign’s end. But this 162 is also reminiscent of 1979 when the good guys signed Pete “Charlie Hustle” Rose to their playoff-caliber squad. Yes, that disappointing season preceded 1980’s championship.

If you recall, 2007 was another year where the team trailed the division leader by a so-called insurmountable difference. But an “NL Wild Card Game” triumph could be 2019’s equivalent with an NLDS exit from the postseason. Of course, 2008 had a completely different ending.

From my 2009 experience of writing after each contest, I found out that scribes and postgame analysts relive each loss like the broadcasters, players, coaches and managers do in real time. And the result can be an overly negative vibe readers, listeners and viewers absorb. Personally, 2009’s losses were stronger than 2019’s.

When the Braves series concludes on July 28, you’ll know Klentak’s direction unless he beefs up the roster beforehand. That stated, it’s not bad news if the GM is still competing for top talent before the deadline. So, what should you do despite the influential vibe broadcasted after each defeat or victory? Stay centered!