MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-16

In week-16 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.

In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” it was a terrible week for some of the game’s best — and most highly paid – closers.

Of the 10 most mission-critical hits of the past week, five – including the top four — were surrendered by celebrated closers. Probably the two names at the top of that list, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, were both taken advantage of at pivotal moments.

This has to be a first for the “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits.”

Fittingly, the guys delivering the hits were also some of the game’s most widely recognized names. Bryce Harper is on this week’s list. So is Paul Goldschmidt.

This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.

Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.

Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

10. Maikel Franco, 42 percent

The Phillies and Nationals are part of a wild scramble for the two National League wild-card spots. That made their series last weekend in Philadelphia vital.

And when the Nats came away with the first two games, the pressure really ratcheted up on the home team. That pressure didn’t improve any when Washington scored twice in the seventh to erase Philadelphia’s 3-1 lead.

For two innings, the Phillies failed to mount anything resembling a rally, going down in order in the bottom of the seventh and eighth against Tanner Rainey and Wander Suero. Washington, too, failed to mount any sort of run at the lead.

In those circumstances, one swing can often determine the outcome. In the bottom of the ninth, the Nationals eschewed the use of closer Sean Doolittle, who had saved both the Friday and Saturday games. Instead, Dave Martinez sent out Matt Grace, with an ERA above 6.00, to try to send the game into extra innings.

Grace got the job one-third of the way done, striking out leadoff hitter Jay Bruce. Maikel Franco came up next and produced that ‘one swing’ the game had lacked. On Grace’s first pitch, Franco homered over the left-center field fence to wrap up a 4-3 victory that prevented the sweep.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

9. Paul Goldschmidt, 43 percent

Every game involving in NL Central opponents is critical. The five teams are separated by only nine games, with just four games separating the top three teams.

Wednesday afternoon’s battle between the Pirates and Cardinals fit that description. The Cardinals have spent two months trying to make up ground on the division-leading Cubs and Brewers. They also presently sit just at the precipice of a multi-team wild card battle.

Wednesday’s matchup in St. Louis was the rubber game of the teams’ series. The Pirates took an early 4-2 lead, and starter Chris Archer worked comfortably, making Jose Martinez his sixth strikeout victim to open the fifth. Two batters later, however, Tyler O’Neill homered to bring St. Louis within a  run at 4-3.

But Archer retired after six innings, and that retirement proved to be the Pirates’ undoing. In the seventh, Francisco Liriano allowed a base hit to Tommy Edman, then issued a one-out walk to Martinez. The next hitter was Paul Goldschmidt.

Obviously, this has been a disappointing season for Goldschmidt, who the Cardinals traded for and then signed to a multi-year extension in the hope that he would be their offense’s focal point. That hasn’t happened; Goldschmidt’s .251 average and league-average 100 OPS+ are key reasons why the Cards find themselves mid-pack in both the divisional and wild card hunts.

On Wednesday, however, Goldschmidt did make a difference. With the tying and go-ahead runs on base, Goldschmidt homered to left-center, improving the Cardinals’ chances of winning the game – and therefore the series – from 45 percent to 88 percent.

The Pirates still had two shots left, and they nearly made good use of those. In the bottom of the ninth, three hits produced a run that brought the visitors within 5-4 and left runners at first and third before Carlos Martinez retired Starling Marte on an infield grounder to seal the victory.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

7. Eddie Rosario, 45 percent

Cleveland’s July drive is putting serious pressure on the Twins, who have led the AL Central all season. That pressure didn’t let up with Cleveland’s six straight victories this week but at least Eddie Rosario helped the Twins forestall some of it.

The Oakland A’s led the Twins 3-1 entering the bottom of the seventh Thursday night when Rosario delivered. To that point, Oakland’s Jurickson Profar had been the game star, his sixth-inning two-run homer breaking a 1-1 tie.

Oakland starter Mike Fiers retired the first batter. But when Luis Arraez doubled and Miguel Sano followed with a base on balls, A’s manager Bob Melvin pulled Fiers in favor of Yusmeirio Petit with Rosario due up.

It’s not possible to know what Fiers might have done against Rosario, but we know what Petit did. Rosario turned around his first pitch for a three-run home run that pivoted the game. Before Rosario’s swing, Minnesota’s chances of victory measured only 30 percent; when the ball landed, those odds had improved to 76 percent.

The Twins followed with eighth-inning home runs by Mitch Garver and C.J. Cron and wound up winning 6-3. Rosario’s three-run home run was the critical moment in turning that outcome.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

6. Ian Desmond, 47 percent

The Giants beat the Rockies 8-4 Tuesday night in Denver, no thanks to Ian Desmond.

Colorado’s veteran center fielder only delivered one hit Tuesday night, but it should have been a pivotal one. It came after the Giants carried a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth and turned the game over to their own celebrated closer, Will Smith.

Smith got off to such a good start this year that he was viewed as a viable trade candidate for any team needing a closer. He was, anyway, until the Giants began reeling off victories around the end of June. Since June 30, San Francisco’s record is 14-3 and Smith appears to have come off the trade market.

Tuesday, however, the Giants won despite Smith, not because of him. The problem began when Trevor Story hammered a 1-1 Smith pitch into the left-field seats for a home run that reduced the Giants lead to  4-2.

One out later, Daniel Murphy singled, bringing up Desmond. His first-pitch home run tied the game and gave Colorado, the home team, a 60 percent chance of eventually winning it.

In the top of the 10th, however, the Giants worked some magic of their own against another renowned closer, Colorado’s Wade Davis. One-out walks to Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval set up the trouble. Alex Dickerson’s single scored Posey with the go-ahead run and follow-up hits by Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski sent two insurance runs across. The Giants added an eighth run when Nolan Arenado failed to handle Kevin Pillar’s ground ball.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

5. Liam Hendriks, 55 percent

Oakland’s 5-4 victory over Minnesota Saturday required not one but two game-turning plays…and they came mere moments apart.

Liam Hendricks, the A’s reliever, provided the second. It came in the bottom of the ninth inning with Oakland trying to cling to a 5-4 lead at Target Field in Minneapolis.

How the A’s got to that 5-4 advantage will be dealt with momentarily. Hendriks is basically the alternate closer to Blake Treinen, but Treinen was unavailable for the ninth, having pitched in relief of Ryan Buchter to hold Minnesota in check in the eighth.

Hendriks’ season to date has been a calming one for the A’s. In 46 appearances covering 55 innings, he’s permitted just seven earned runs and 37 hits.

Saturday, however, did not fit his season-long pattern. After striking out Ehrie Adrianza, he allowed a base hit to Max Kepler and a double to  Jonathan Schoop. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli called on Eddie Rosario as a pinch hitter, and Hendriks gave him an intentional walk to load the bases and set up a potential game-ending double play.

In these situations, the math gets interesting. The A’s still held a one-run lead, of course, yet by 55 percent the odds favored a Twins rally for a victory.

The next hitter, Mitch Garver, came up anxious…a good thing for Hendriks and Oakland. He cut at the first pitch and slapped a one-hop double play ball right at A’s shortstop Marcus Semien. When Semien turned it, Hendriks and the A’s had beaten the odds and held on to their win.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

4. Khris Davis, 60 percent

Hendriks may have gotten the critical double-play ball, but it wouldn’t have mattered had Khris Davis not delivered a scorcher in the inning’s top half.

The A’s trailed 4-3 entering the ninth of what had been a back-and-forth game, the kind you would expect between post-season contenders. Minnesota touched Jose Berrios for a pair of first-inning home runs, the A’s rallied to take a 3-2 lead on seventh-inning home runs by Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano, only to watch Minnesota regain the lead with two runs in the bottom of that same inning,

Blake Treinen avoided making the situation worse in the eighth when, after allowing a base hit and a walk, he retired Marwin Gonzalez on a ground out.

But that still left the A’s staring at their last three outs starting the ninth. The situation got worse before it got better, Twins reliever Taylor Rodgers getting Matt Chapman on a groundout and fanning Matt Olson.

Then Rodgers hit Mark Canha with a pitch, and Ramon Laureano followed with a double to left that sends Canha to third. Still trailing by a run with two out, Oakland’s chances only measured 21 percent.

But the statistics didn’t account for Davis. Against an A’s shift that left only first baseman C.J. Cron on the right side of the infield, Davis rifled a shot that handcuffed Cron and skipped past him onto the right-field grass. With second baseman Jonathan Schoop pulled well over toward the base, it was an easy matter for Canha and Laureano to both score, giving the A’s the 5-4 lead that Hendriks eventually protected.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

3. Matt Beaty, 63 percent

Both closers in Wednesday’s Phillies-Dodgers game had a bad night. The result was a thrilling finish, but hardly an endorsement for the idea of a highly paid closer.

At Citizens Bank Park, the home-standing Phillies seized early command of the game, scoring six times in the first two innings off Walker Buehler. The Dodgers, however, don’t fall that easily. Fourth inning home runs by Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock closed the deficit to 6-4, and Joc Pederson’s home run leading off the fifth made it 6-5.

It remained 6-5 when Phillies closer Hector Neris got the ball to start the ninth.

In his third season as the team’s primary closer, Neris has already piled up 18 saves, and looks lie a lock to surpass his career-high of 26.

He did not help himself in that direction Wednesday. Neris issued a 3-2 walk to the leadoff hitter, Max Muncy, then Pollock dropped a parachute single behind shortstop that sent Muncy to second.

Neris fanned Corey Seager for the inning’s first out and stared down pinch hitter Matt Beaty. In limited duty the Dodger rookie has developed a reputation as a clutch hitter, batting .307 with four home runs but 21 RBIs in just 118 plate appearances. Beaty took a first-pitch ball and then got aggressive, lifting a home run into the seats in right-center field. That hit flipped the score to 8-6 Dodgers and left Los Angeles with a 91 percent chance at victory. Until…

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

2. Bryce Harper, 65 percent

…Until the Dodgers brought in their own closer, Kenley Jansen, to seal the deal. By the book, Jansen is an even surer bet than Neris, especially when given a two-run lead. In 39 games he has 24 saves and 54 strikeouts, getting nearly half his outs that way.

Jansen retired Philadelphia’s first hitter, outfielder Adam Haseley, on an easy ground ball. He never got another out.

The second hitter, catcher Andrew Knapp, looked at a first-pitch ball and then lined a double down the right-field line into the corner. Phillies leadoff hitter Cesar Hernandez was next, and Jansen got him in a  quick 0-2 hole. But Hernandez played it smart, shortening up and slapping a ground single through the hole between first and second.

Even at that point, the chances of a Phillies victory had only increased from 5 percent at inning’s start to 22 percent. But Scott Kingery improved them further, blooping a 1-1 pitch for a single to center that scored Knapp.

The next hitter was the centerpiece of the Phillies offense, Bryce Harper. Jansen tried a first-pitch fastball, and Harper powered it to the wall in center for a double, chasing Hernandez and Kingery home with the game-ending runs.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-16

1. Travis d’Arnaud, 72 percent

The Yankees have spent a good portion of the season trying to bury their divisional rivals, the Rays, and Red Sox, and they’ve done a good job of it. New York is 18-5 against the two teams, putting both on the fringes of wild card consideration.

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As good as that sounds, it might have been better. The Yankees let one get away Monday at Yankee Stadium.

Trailing the Rays 2-0 early, the Yankees got game-tying home runs from Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Urshela, then took a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the eighth on Encarnacion’s second home run. Then they turned the ninth over to Chapman, who has already piled up 25 saves.

In fewer than 37 innings, Chapman has struck out 53 batters. But the Rays showed in the ninth that if you can make contact on Chapman – admittedly a big ‘if’ – you can get to him.

Kevin Kiermaier opened the inning with a roller past third base, and he took second on Guillermo Heredia’s line drive hit to left.

Chapman recovered his form well enough to whiff Willy Adames and Joey Wendle, moving the Yankees within one out of victory. In that situation – two-out, two on and two runs down – the Rays’ chances of winning measured just 8 percent.

But Travis d’Arnaud came up and got all he needed of a 3-2 Chapman pitch, sending it down the right-field line to Yankee Stadium’s shortest porch for a home run.

That gave Tampa a 5-4 lead and an 80 percent chance of winning. When Andrew Kittredge and Oliver Drake recorded the final three outs, the Rays had their comeback win.