New York Mets: Zack Wheeler to stay in NY? Syndergaard to go?

The New York Mets find themselves as one of the few sellers in the National League in 2019. They, however, do not believe they are primed for a rebuild. GM Brodie Van Wagenen is seeking out moves that will leave him with a more well-rounded roster in 2020.

A recent report by Ken Rosenthal claims that a potential avenue that the New York Mets may pursue at the Deadline or later in the offseason, is to deal Syndergaard for some type of haul and retain Zack Wheeler. They would not simply hold onto Wheeler in order to obtain a draft pick due to a qualifying offer being slapped on him, rather they would extend him.

Wheeler has a career of injuries, thus a simple flare-up of shoulder inflammation that landed him on the 10-day IL is far more treacherous for him than it would be for the standard pitcher. The lack of years of control on Wheeler coupled with this recent development has rendered him incapable of fetching a suitable return for his talent.

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His talent is not just potential, he has show proof of being a solid major league starter with the possibility of holding the second or third slot in any rotation. His fastball is jolted by an impressive spin-rate that hastens the ball from a batter’s perspective. His main secondary pitch- a change-up nearly unanimously mistaken for a splitter- has the fifth-highest spin rate for that respective pitch in the league.

His stuff is good and he knows how to pitch, however, the one persistent flaw in 2019 has been the frequency with which he surrenders the home run ball. That has become uniform around the league, yet whoever signs him- especially if it is the Mets- must have confidence that he will learn how to limit it or make it less of an issue over time. This is a well-placed gamble because he was robbed of many of his early years due to persistent injuries, thus he is well-advanced yet still honing his craft.

Syndergaard, however, has not shown much of a tendency for consistency. He can be stellar or he can be ineffective, all the while he has shown little evidence of sustaining any trends. The flamethrowing righty has a stunningly low spin rate on that once universally revered fastball. As of now, the interest on him remains lofty, but if a deal is not reached soon and the current inconsistency continues that high value will not last.

The principal reason he is so coveted is his high-octane pitches, of course, but also his two-plus years of control. He has not been that dominant force the collective of MLB fans thought him to be since 2016- the 2017 lat injury set him back severely. In 2018, a rough start was able to be overcome and he was eventually able to post above-average numbers. 2019 has seen a far different fate, as for many Mets and players around the league it has been an absurdity.

The main reason the New York Mets would benefit from shipped Syndergaard away is the influx of young talent that could have a quick impact- perhaps even in 2020.

An Andy Martino report makes it clear that the Yankees must overpay to acquire the highly-coveted righty. A package of Deivi Garcia and Estevan Florial would not be enough for the Mets. Also, the Padres, Astros, and Dodgers have all emerged as viable suitors- all of them having farm systems packed to the brim, unlike the Yankees.

The Yankees have been handicapped by Clint Frazier, his emergence as a slugger has given him value and his emergence as an outfield liability has diminished it. This has basically excluded trading Frazier to NL clubs until they have an assurance that there will be a universal DH.

A team might like to go all in and take three shots at the World Series with Syndergaard in their rotation, while the New York Mets can restock their roster with prospects. The Mets’ farm system has many interesting names including Anthony Kay, Matthew Allan, and Bret Batty. An influx of more prospects can set them up to recover from the financial anchor of the Yoenis Cespedes contract and compete during the tenures of Jacob deGrom and Pete Alonso.

Overall, Wheeler would be the more reasonable pitcher to keep because his track record justifies it and the return for Syndergaard might be too tempting to pass up.