One Phillies trade, two new starting pitchers by July 31
If the Phillies front office is creative, they could manipulate their finances to pull off a stunning acquisition and simultaneously eliminate a wild-card competitor, but could general manager Matt Klentak get the higher-ups to sign off on such an ambitious deal?
All-in to win:
For the doubting Thomases among the Philadelphia Phillies faithful, the execs have a novel path to an ace and a southpaw on an above-.500 franchise mired in the National League Wild Card’s limbo. Yes, two rotation pieces! Addressing this, though, with its conceivable obstacles is the aim of this article.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Nothing is impossible, the word itself says ‘I’m possible’!” – Audrey Hepburn
In the offseason, the brass did their due diligence for a lefty to slot second in the five-man staff, but they were unwilling to exceed the offer limits they set. Basically, they had four in-house hurlers maturing toward a developmental ceiling of 60-90 starts, and management hoped two would be effective and healthy in July.
Since Opening Day, Zach Eflin has shown the potential consistency to be a mid-rotation arm. He has accumulated 65 starts and the others have thrown between 71 and 88. Roughly, a player makes an impact after 60-90 performances. That stated, Eflin may be suffering from fatigue because he’s at 100 innings to 128 for 2018.
As for some fans, they aren’t enthusiastic about the wild-card race, thought the Fightins are one of four organizations within two games for two NL Wild Card berths. But their injuries have been a major stumbling block offensively and pitching-wise. Ergo, every contest will be a hard-fought battle with reinforcements on the way.
Regarding Klentak and his higher-ups, they have established operating patterns of due diligence and exploring creative avenues to stock their roster. And even though they could pick up pieces to plug their biggest holes, many locals would still make light of the difficulty involved due to lofty expectations.
Financially, a daring move to absorb an expensive contract and a second commitment appears on the surface to be beyond consideration. And most writers haven’t given it even a first thought, but GMs don’t just check on the obvious swaps and all possible moundsmen: They examine every conceivable angle.
On the other hand, rarely does a trading partner have talent with virtually no competition because of monetary considerations. But while the deep-pocketed clubs aren’t in a position to add $20 million or more for multiple campaigns, spending excessively isn’t realistic for wild-card hopefuls except for the Phils.
Frequent possibilities:
For the Phillies, accepting a salary-dump rental is an indication of either temporarily plugging a hole to bolster their wild-card chances or an inexpensive secondary move for other areas. Basically, having Drew Smyly won’t stop Klentak from making a trade before month’s end. But the portsider has had prior success.
When an exec acquires a player, it doesn’t mean he was the first choice or will even finish the 162 with the team. But deals, now, don’t happen overnight because other franchises wait to receive better proposals for their Madison Bumgarner types.
In a second category, starters under organizational control through 2020 are the hurlers drawing the contender’s attention. Yes, they’re having excellent seasons and could slot second or third on most competitive teams.
In another group are left-handers Mike Minor and Robbie Ray plus righty Marcus Stroman. And while contenders for divisional titles are in the mix, some wild-card clubs are looking ahead to ’20 as well. But keep in mind, bidders with a realistic shot at capturing a league pennant are usually willing to make stronger proposals.
Concerning multiple control years, Matthew Boyd was having a breakout summer with solid outings through May’s end. Unfortunately, he’s mostly struggled since. He has a $2.6 million salary and will not be a free agent until after 2022.
Normally, rebuilding franchises are the only ones willing to swap a mid-rotation piece. But the asking prices are exorbitant because they have no urgency to move them; though, a Godfather-like offer will change their minds.
Unmentioned option:
Regarding the competitive-balance threshold, the Phillies will exceed it if they have a solid reason or an opportunity to win the NL pennant. Of course, now, only victories can force management’s hand. However, exceptions are also possible!
The Luxury Tax limit for 2019 is $206 million, and the Fightins are at $196.4 million. Actually, $9.6 million remaining at July’s end equals one third (two months) of $28.8 million in a deadline-traded star’s commitment for ’19. In other words, it will allow Klentak to add expensive talent if he can swing a deal.
As for ’20, the Fightins will have $36.1 million: $24.5 million from three departing veteran relievers, a $2 million increase to $208 million in the competitive-balance threshold, and $9.6 million available from ’19. Basically, Klentak has some wiggle room to be at or near 2020’s Luxury Tax limit.
With AAV (average annual value) concerning a blockbuster trade, extensions for J.T. Realmuto and an acquisition like Ray would be the tricky part. For instance, Cesar Hernandez and Ray will both be in the $10 million range next summer. So, the GM would replace Hernandez with Scott Kingery and Hernandez’s $10 million salary with Ray’s.
Not all salary dumps are middle-of-the-road players. To illustrate, Zack Greinke‘s contract is also a major obstacle for the Arizona Diamondbacks to make improvements to their active roster for ’20. Basically, his AAV is $34.4 million, and Arizona’s proposal is to absorb $10 million per season: $24.4 million remaining.
On the other hand, Greinke, 36 on Oct. 21, is 10-4 with a 2.93 ERA; but analytics-influenced execs are hesitant to commit $20 million or more to stars not within their prime years of 27 to 32. Yes, Greinke is now a pitcher with a 90-mph fastball down from a mid-90.s heater at his peak but still producing ace numbers.
Decisions aplenty:
At first blush, the Phillies wouldn’t have interest in absorbing $24.4 million AAV and moving an organizational top 10 talent for an aging ace. Plus clubs don’t generally get a haul of MiLB standouts and salary relief to solve their monetary roadblock. No, Klentak and other GMs would have the leverage here.
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In fact, taking on a major financial commitment usually happens while acquiring a younger star like Ray. So, Klentak would absorb a large percentage of Greinke’s contract along with Ray but still allow dollars for 2020’s extensions for Realmuto and Ray. Plus the exec could offer Mickey Moniak, Cornelius Randolph and/or Adonis Medina.
Basically, the end result would be a five-man staff of Nola, Greinke, Ray, Arrieta, and Eflin. And Velasquez would join Pivetta to bolster the bullpen along with a returning Robertson. Additionally, some relievers on the IL (injured list) could come back in September when rosters expand.
While writers and analysts offer NL East commentary, they often miss the heavy workload on the Washington Nationals starters to compensate for a shaky pen before the closer. However, front offices are well aware of their opponents’ shortcomings, and Klentak knows the Nats could have late-inning losses.
As for the Atlanta Braves, they need relievers and their ninth-frame option isn’t strong. Therefore, they may pick up a setup man or two, but they probably won’t be able to address those final three outs. And it could be their undoing in the NL East chase.
To sum up, the Phillies could acquire an ace plus a rotation southpaw and bolster the relief corps simultaneously. So, what would the Nationals and Braves be if Klentak can pull off this blockbuster deal? Beatable!
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