Unmentioned option:
Regarding the competitive-balance threshold, the Phillies will exceed it if they have a solid reason or an opportunity to win the NL pennant. Of course, now, only victories can force management’s hand. However, exceptions are also possible!
The Luxury Tax limit for 2019 is $206 million, and the Fightins are at $196.4 million. Actually, $9.6 million remaining at July’s end equals one third (two months) of $28.8 million in a deadline-traded star’s commitment for ’19. In other words, it will allow Klentak to add expensive talent if he can swing a deal.
As for ’20, the Fightins will have $36.1 million: $24.5 million from three departing veteran relievers, a $2 million increase to $208 million in the competitive-balance threshold, and $9.6 million available from ’19. Basically, Klentak has some wiggle room to be at or near 2020’s Luxury Tax limit.
With AAV (average annual value) concerning a blockbuster trade, extensions for J.T. Realmuto and an acquisition like Ray would be the tricky part. For instance, Cesar Hernandez and Ray will both be in the $10 million range next summer. So, the GM would replace Hernandez with Scott Kingery and Hernandez’s $10 million salary with Ray’s.
Not all salary dumps are middle-of-the-road players. To illustrate, Zack Greinke‘s contract is also a major obstacle for the Arizona Diamondbacks to make improvements to their active roster for ’20. Basically, his AAV is $34.4 million, and Arizona’s proposal is to absorb $10 million per season: $24.4 million remaining.
On the other hand, Greinke, 36 on Oct. 21, is 10-4 with a 2.93 ERA; but analytics-influenced execs are hesitant to commit $20 million or more to stars not within their prime years of 27 to 32. Yes, Greinke is now a pitcher with a 90-mph fastball down from a mid-90.s heater at his peak but still producing ace numbers.