In week-16 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” It was another bad week for teams trusting bullpens to hold onto late leads.
The Chicago Cubs twice surrendered solid starting performances in losses to the San Francisco Giants, then did so two more times later in the week in Milwaukee. The Toronto Blue Jays surprised closers from Cleveland and then from Tampa Bay.
The Yankees rallied against the Twins, then the Twins rallied against the Yankees, then the Yankees re-rallied against the Twins …all in the same game. Milwaukee’s Tyler Saladino not once but twice delivered game-turning grand slam home runs.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.