MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-17
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
10. Justin Smoak, 47 percent
As hot as the Cleveland Indians have been, they couldn’t beat Justin Smoak Tuesday night.
Trevor Bauer shut out the Jays into the eighth inning, leaving with a tenuous 1-0 advantage. Oliver Perez struck out Eric Sogard and then turned that 1-0 lead over to Indians closer Brad Hand starting the ninth.
But Hand couldn’t handle Smoak, who drove a one-out pitch over the wall in center field for a game-tying home run. That lone hit shifted the chances of a Jays win from a mere 13 percent to 58 percent.
On the scoreboard, of course, it only tied the game. But Smoak wasn’t through yet. After Adam Cimber bailed hand out of a subsequent ninth-inning jam and Jays closer Ken Giles escaped his own jam in the top of the 10th, Smoak got a second chance to influence the game’s outcome in the bottom of the 10th.
After Cimber retired the first two Blue Jays batters, Jays manager Charlie Montoyo made the classic error of fixing something that wasn’t broken. He lifted Cimber in favor of Tyler Olson. The new reliever proceeded to walk Sogard, wild pitch him to second, and allow a Freddie Galvis infield hit that sent Sogard to third.
That brought up Smoak for a second decisive moment, and again he delivered. His infield hit between short and third sent Sogard home with the winning run in Toronto’s 2-1 victory.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
9. Didi Gregorius, 47 percent
As you might guess from the score, Tuesday’s 14-12 Yankee victory over Minnesota rolled a week’s worth of twists and turns into just one evening. That’s why events from that evening occupy three places on the list of the week’s 10 most game-sensitive hits.
Didi Gregorius delivered the first of them in the top of the eighth inning. Minnesota had carried a seemingly secure 9-5 lead into that inning, much of it coming on the strength of Miguel Sano’s three-run home run that capped a five-run fourth inning.
But reliever Blake Parker got into immediate trouble to start the eighth. Gio Urshela followed Parker’s walk to Gleyber Torres by doubling, and when Mike Tauchman doubled Torres home it brought the potential tying run to the plate.
One out later, Aaron Judge doubled both Urshela and Tauchman across.
Two pitching changes after that, Gregorius came up, facing Ryne Harper with two outs, Judge at second and D.J. LeMahieu at first. One out away from carrying at least a one-run lead into the ninth, the odds of a Twins victory still measured 75 percent. But Gregorius reversed the equation with the inning’s third run-scoring double. It sent Judge and LeMahieu across and suddenly the Yankees led 10-9.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
8. Brandon Drury, 49 percent
It was a fun week to be a Blue Jays fan.
On Saturday, four days after Smoak’s one-man undermining of the Indians, another Jay turned a likely defeat into a come-from-behind victory. Brandon Drury’s home run pulled the Jays back from the brink of a narrow loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.
Early in that contest, the Jays’ only need appeared to be for somebody who could get a Rays batter out. Tampa scored six times in the second, added two in the third and led 8-2 through five innings.
That picture began to change in the Toronto eighth, and it was Drury who lit the fuse with a home run. Teoscar Hernandez followed with a homer of his own and Tampa’s lead was reduced to 8-4 entering the ninth.
In that ninth, Lourdes Gurriel opened with a double and Randal Grichuk coaxed a walkout of Oliver Drake. When Vlad Guerrero Jr., followed with a home run, Tampa’s four-run lead was down to a single run.
Tampa’s hold on the game stabilized when Adam Kolarek fanned Cavan Biggio, then Colin Poche struck out Danny Jansen. That reduced the prospects of a Blue Jays victory to just five percent. But Drury was next up, and for the second consecutive inning, he homered, this time into the right-field seats. That improved the home team’s victory prospects by a full 49 percent.
The game proceeded tied through the 10th and 11th innings. In the 12th, Hernandez delivered his second home run, a walk-off.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
7. Ben Gamel, 49 percent
The Milwaukee Brewers won the first two games of their weekend series with the Chicago Cubs because they were able to take advantage of Chicago’s dysfunctional bullpen. Ben Gamel set the tone.
The Cubs clung to a 2-1 lead when Gamel came to the plate in the bottom of the eighth inning Friday night. Kyle Hendricks had shut out the Brewers through five innings, but Joe Maddon elected to lift him for a pinch hitter and trust the game to his problematic pen. That pen allowed one Brewers run and then loaded the bases with two out when Gamel came to bat. As he stood in, Milwaukee’s victory prospects measured only 37 percent.
The Brewers outfielder took a first-pitch ball and then lined a solid base hit between center and right. Keston Hiura and Eric Thames both easily scored the runs that gave Milwaukee its first lead.
When Josh Hader retired the Cubs in the top of the ninth, Gamel’s hit turned a likely defeat into a victory.
It proved to be both a victory and a foreshadowing. One evening later, the entire event reprised. Maddon lifted starter Jon Lester working on a 2-0 shutout, then bullpen surrendered that lead, and Milwaukee came away with a late victory.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
6. Miguel Sano, 52 percent
By the book, Gregorius’s double capping the five-run eighth should have set the Yankees up for a victory against Minnesota Tuesday. It not only gave the visitors a lead, but it also improved the odds of a New York win to 72 percent…better if you consider that the Yankees had ace relievers Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman prepared to close the door.
Sano, however, had other plans. As noted earlier, it had already been a good night for him, a three-run home run shooting the home team into an 8-2 lead midway through the game.
Nelson Cruz grounded out to the first base to open the inning, but Eddie Rosario followed with a weak line drive that handcuffed Urshela at third base, Rosario reaching first. Sano was the next batter.
Sano worked the count to his advantage, then coaxed Britton into delivering a 2-1 fastball in hitting the range. To the delight of the home crowd, Sano swung and sent the shot on a 457-foot flight into the left-center field seats for his second home run of the evening, this one carrying potentially decisive weight.
As Sano stood in the batter’s box, the Twins’ chances of victory stood at only 33 percent. When he touched home plate, he improved them by a full 52 percent, all the way to 85 percent. The Twins led 11-10 and needed only for their own closer, Taylor Rogers, to nail down the final three outs in the ninth.
As will be dealt with later, that did not happen.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
5. Matt Olson, 55 percent
Through eight innings, Astros pitcher Wade Miley stifled the visiting Athletics on just three hits, his team-leading 2-0. But when Miley began the ninth by walking Marcus Semien and surrendering a base hit to Matt Chapman, Astros manager A.J. Hinch decided he trusted his pen more than Miley to protect the lead.
Hinch summoned closer Roberto Osuna to get the final three outs, and Osuna did…eventually. But first, he allowed Matt Olson to blast an 0-2 pitch for a three-run home run that rallied Oakland to a 3-2 lead. That lone hit shifted the game odds by a factor of 55 percent, from 72 percent for Houston to 83 percent for Oakland.
Olson’s home run did not actually settle things. There remained three outs to get and Joakim Soria couldn’t get them. In the bottom of the ninth, one-out singles by Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick put the tying run at third for Aledmys Diaz, whose sacrifice fly affixed a tie.
But in the Oakland 11th, Ramon Laureano’s ground-rule double scored Olson, who had singled and moved to second on a walk, with what would prove to be the winning run. Yusmeiro Petit retired the Astros in order in the bottom of the inning to formally secure the comeback victory.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
4. Tyler Saladino, 60 percent
Saladino all but gave the Brewers a come-from-behind win Monday night against the division-rival Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers somehow failed to take it…but that’s a story for subsequent entry.
The visiting Reds carried a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth at Miller Park. Amir Garrett, who had retired Yasmani Grandal to end a Brewer threat in the seventh, opened the inning, but he was lifted after being touched for a Mike Moustakas single.
Reds manager David Bell is one of the few team leaders willing to count on his closer for more than three outs, and on this occasion, Bell summoned Raisel Iglesias to subdue any possible threat. Iglesias had had an uneven season – 17 saves but a 1.4 WHIP – and this was not one of his better nights.
The first batter, Jesus Aguilar, grounded a base hit up the middle. Keston Hiura followed by drawing a walk, loading the bases before Orlando Arcia struck out. Second baseman Saladino was the next batter.
With the bases full, one out but a three-run deficit, the odds of a Brewers comeback win stood at only 25 percent. What the Brewers needed was nothing less than a grand slam home run, something Saladino had produced as recently as the previous afternoon to cap Milwaukee’s 7-4 victory at Arizona. What were the odds of the same player hitting grand slams in back-to-back games?
Excellent, as it turned out. Saladino hammered Iglesias’ first pitch over the wall in center field. Suddenly Milwaukee led 5-4. And stood just three outs away from a victory.
This time, however, Saladino’s slam would not be enough. More on that in a moment.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
3. Ehrie Adrianza, 61 percent
The way the Oakland Athletics mounted a comeback charge against Minnesota last Sunday, you almost had to root for the A’s to seal the victory.
The Twins scored four times in the first two innings and led 5-1 when Oakland mounted its comeback. In the fifth, Josh Phegley hit a two-run home run. Chad Pinder’s sixth-inning sacrifice fly got another run home, and a seventh-inning Trevor May wild pitch moved the A’s within one run, 5-4.
Then in the top of the eighth inning, Chris Herrmann doubled home the tying run and Phegley followed with a sacrifice fly to put Oakland on top for the first time, 6-5.
But the Twins still had six outs left…and they also had Ehrie Adrianza. With one out in the ninth, Luis Arreas singled off A’s closer Liam Hendricks, bringing Adrianza to the plate. He lined a drive into the gap past right fielder Mark Canha and scampered all the way to third as Arreas scored the tying run.
One out later, Max Kepler’s single got Adrianza across with the walk-off winner for the Twins.
The victory enabled Minnesota to hold onto its three-game lead over Cleveland in the tightening AL Central race.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
2. Eugenio Suarez, 68 percent
Saladino’s home run put the Brewers on top, but it still left Cincinnati with a comeback hope in the top of the ninth inning. Jeremy Jeffress took the mound for the Brewers intent on ensuring that those comeback hopes went nowhere.
The first Reds batter, Derek Dietrich, went down on strikes. Nick Senzel singled, but Jeffress enticed Joey Votto into grounding to third baseman Mike Moustakas, who was playing in the hole between first and second as part of the Brewers’ shift. Senzel, meanwhile, carried the tying run to second.
Eugenio Suarez was the next hitter. The Reds’ best power threat, Suarez had already homered, taking Adrian Houser deep in the seventh to pad Cincinnati’s pre-Saladino lead. Yet as he stood in this time, Cincinnati’s chance of winning stood at only 12 percent. Jeffress threw Suarez a first-pitch ball, then gave him something to hit and Suarez did. Leaving the bat at 107 mph, the ball flew 433 feet to the seats in left for a go-ahead home run, raising that 12 percent Reds chance to 80 percent.
When the Brewers managed nothing more threatening than a two-out walk in the bottom of the ninth, Cincinnati emerged with a 6-5 victory.
MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-17
1. Aaron Hicks, 71 percent
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Two major turning points in, the Twins-Yankees game should have been over. Sano’s second home run had more than negated Gregorius’ key double and moved Minnesota within three outs of the victory. To make things simpler, Twins closer Taylor Rogers opened the ninth by retiring Gleyber Torres and Gio Urshela on fly balls.
Mike Tauchman breathed some life into the cause by taking a 3-2 pitch for a walk. That brought up Aaron Hicks, representing the go-ahead run. In that circumstance, the Yanks’ odds of winning still only stood at eight percent, considering that they had just one out to play with and were the visiting team. None of that stopped Hicks, who drilled Rogers’ first pitch for a two-run home run.
In the time it took Hicks to round the bases and give New York a 12-11 lead, he also improved the Yankees’ chances of winning by 71 percent, all the way to 79 percent.
Even that hit didn’t totally settle the outcome. In the bottom of the ninth, Aroldis Chapman walked the bases full and then issued a game-tying sacrifice fly to Jorge Polanco.
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It wasn’t until the top of the 10th when the Yankees strung together three base hits plus a stolen base and a wild pitch to produce two runs, that the final 14-12 score was set. And even then, the Yankees had to survive Adam Ottavino walking the bases full in the bottom of the 10th before they could walk off the field as winners.