Braves And Rangers For The Win-Win: Chris Martin To Atlanta
By TC Zencka
The Braves plugged a hole in their bullpen today, and the Rangers add a candidate for their 2020 rotation. That’s called a win-win.
In a deal that swaps height for youth, the Atlanta Braves picked up 6’8″ reliever Chris Martin from the Texas Rangers for Kolby Allard, the #10 ranked prospect in Atlanta’s system per MLB.com.
The Braves don’t really have a closer. A.J. Minter gave it a go, but he’s been worth -0.8 bWAR on the season, currently rocking a 7.09 ERA through 33 games. He does have 5 saves and 5 holds, but that’s only further cannon fodder for the belief that the Braves bullpen cupboard is bare.
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Luke Jackson is the final act most nights these days. His 17 saves look good until you realize that he’s blown 7. On the whole, Jackson’s numbers look solid: 3.12 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 2.58 xFIP, 12.31 K/9. Still, his numbers don’t matter as much as those 7 blown saves, and if there’s any doubt as to his ability to lock down those wins (which there is), then the Braves are wise to grab an extra arm.
Martin probably won’t take over the closer’s role, but he’s been worth 1.5 bWAR so far this season while, basically, not screwing up: 3.08 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 10.2 K/9, 0.9 BB/9. The strikeout to walk numbers is what really stands out, as Martin only allowed 4 walks in 38 innings this season. That’s quite good.
And for what it’s worth, he does have four saves.
The Rangers make out like bandits here, especially in light of the return the Blue Jays netted for Marcus Stroman just two days ago. Allard, 21, is a lefty starter currently in Triple-A. He’s taken a small step backward this year, his second at the Triple-A level, but again, he’s only 21-years-old!
Even when his year-over-year BABIP jumped from .295 to .331, and his home run rate more than doubled (from 0.48 HR/9 to 1.23 HR/9), Allard’s still put forth a respectable 4.17 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.40 xFIP. He bumped his strikeout rate by almost a batter, and he has a chance to reach 150 innings for the second time in three years.
He’s a perfect get for the Rangers, who by the end of this deadline could very well have zero pitchers lined up for their 2020 rotation. More likely, Lance Lynn will still head that staff, and they’ll need to find some more arms elsewhere. Expect Allard to be a part of that spring conversation.
Fangraphs pegs Allard at 40+ FV, less than both the pitchers the Blue Jays got in the Stroman deal, but he’s in the same category at least – even if he does only slot in as the #16 prospect in the Rangers’ system. The Rangers should feel pretty good about netting half as much as the Blue Jays got for their ace, considering all they gave up was a 33-year-old reliever with 108 career games under his belt.
Next. How should the Nats counter?. dark
The Braves don’t care how many games he’s played in his career, however. They care that this season he’s been a cheap, reliable arm – something every playoff contender is looking for. While Allard seems like a high price to pay for a non-elite reliever, but the Braves have plenty of near-ready, unproven, potential future starters. They don’t have many reliable relievers.
But they have one more now than they did an hour ago, and that’s worth a little extra future value.