2019 Phillies: Trading tomorrow's potential for today's shot

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Coming of TJ surgery, a pitcher sometimes needs more time to rebound, and the Phillies may have acquired him at the right time. Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images. /

With decision-making in progress, the Phillies faithful have no shortage of doubts and blame for general manager Matt Klentak and the execs above him, plus the organization’s detractors believe the rotation’s shortcomings were obvious in November.

Pitfalls of perception:

While the Philadelphia Phillies are among the top four franchises in the National League hunt for two wild-card berths, some fans have little enthusiasm for the stretch drive. Why? Well, a team’s evaluations and a supporter’s impression of that process are on each side of a substantial chasm.

IN OTHER WORDS: “The size of your success is measured by the strength of your desire, the size of your dream, and how you handle disappointment along the way.” – Robert Kiyosaki

For many locals, the offense has underperformed, and Klentak had known the five-man staff was insufficient. Primarily, these fans believe the starters aren’t at fault for their disappointments, and they want to swap the minor leaguers necessary to receive a top rotation piece by sacrificing the future for the present.

Cultivating a player doesn’t end with a major league promotion because many pipeline standouts make an MLB impact in or after their third campaign. But some faithful supporters think these young stars must succeed immediately, or the club should move on to another player: a major difference.

Regarding rotation possibilities, the development-time results are after 60 to 90 starts, and most organizations use this thinking to appraise their potential for a counted-on slot. But this isn’t a getting-a-shot opportunity until the limited MiLB talent advances an entire staff of studs.

On the other hand, blaming the franchise’s lack of drafting a solid rotation is just another form of scapegoating. And the red pinstripes fans are not alone in this common practice throughout the bigs. But if the club struggles, the faithful fault the players, coaches, managers and execs, not their own expectations.

Entering camp, the Fightins had four moundmen still developing: Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff. They lacked enough outings to determine their fate, and the front office didn’t know if one, none or all would succeed. Except, however, for a potential free-agent signing, the first half was to clarify that.

Barring a southpaw addition, the Phils anticipated a dominate Aaron Nola, a healthy Jake Arrieta, and a deadline trade for a game-changing lefty to bolster a playoff run. And they hoped one youngster would develop into a three-slot hurler, while two would handle the bottom two rungs of the five-man staff.

Vargas is replacing Eflin in the rotation’s fourth or fifth slot. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. /

What management saw:

While many Phillies fans concluded Eflin, Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eickhoff had proven to be inadequate in 2018. Unfortunately, some even formed these beliefs in 2016 or 2017. But execs according to a retired GM expect a pitcher to make an impact in or after his third summer. Ergo, 60-90 starts.

Phillies starts at 2018’s end (current total in parenthesis):

Nola at 93 (116) for 3 campaigns of development.
Velasquez at 76 (88) for 2.5 to 3.
Eickhoff at 66 (76) for 2 to 2.5.
Pivetta at 58 (71) for 2 to 2.5.
Eflin at 46 (66) for 1.5 to 2.

With Eflin, the brass noticed his prior-years’ stats cratering due to an injury he was pitching through, but his healthy numbers revealed a potential two or three starter. In fact, he was 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA through June 19. The guess here is fatigue, but his decline began after 86 innings despite a 148-frame workload in ’18.

When Velasquez struggled or went five innings last year, analysts highlighted that but were hesitant to praise his solid outings. Unwittingly, they reinforced the locals’ take on him. He, however, went 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA from June through Aug. 4: 10 starts with five having more than six frames and two with six.

As for Pivetta, he had produced a 4-3 record with a 3.26 ERA through May’s end in 2018, but he struggled thereafter until his recent return from a demotion to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Unfortunately, June’s short-lived success had ended and led to his bullpen assignment.

Following a successful ’16 with an 11-14 mark and a 3.65 ERA for 197 1/3 innings, Eickhoff regressed in ’17 before experiencing consecutive injury-riddled 162s. In 2016, though, he made 16 starts and completed six frames including nine for 6 1/3 innings or more out of 28 opportunities.

Watching the chances here for IronPigs starters, viewers realized Enyel De Los Santos, Drew Anderson, Cole Irvin, and Ranger Suarez aren’t the answer either. Translation: Beginning anew doesn’t work with less than 10 MLB starts and green Eflins. So, management’s take on March 1 was different than yours.

Parker joins the demoted Eflin in the pen. Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images. /

Down to the wire:

More from Call to the Pen

After the Phillies had gone 1-2 against both the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves plus 2-2 versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, the front office choose patching the five-man staff and, perhaps, considering a starter for 2020. Basically, president Andy MacPhail stated they are more than one piece away from the World Series.

They’ve added portsiders Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas to Nola and Arrieta. And if they acquire a hurler for now and ’20, Velasquez would be the likely candidate returning to a relief role probably at the back end with Pivetta. Or they’ll wait for a free agent like Gerrit Cole or a winter trade for Matthew Boyd.

When 2019 began, analysts had predicted a four-team race, but only Atlanta has survived injuries and shortcomings so far. However, many have elevated Washington to the top contender for the first NL Wild Card even though the red pinstripes are only a half-game behind them.

Barring a last-minute deal, the decision-makers are using inexpensive pickups to plug holes in the rotation, pen, and bench. Realistically, they will keep their top prospects until the offseason. But minimal pitching additions for roster holes on the Nationals and other hopefuls will leave the Phils with what? Wild-card aspirations!

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