Winners And Losers of the MLB Trade Deadline
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Winner: Houston Astros
You knew this one was coming. Just as the clock was ticking down the Astros completed two trades that cemented them as the favorite to represent the American League in the World Series again.
The first trade Houston completed brings in righty pitchers Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini. Houston is a team of few weaknesses, with their only need really being relief help.
They solve that with Biagini, who is having a solid 2019 with a 3.79 ERA and striking out over nine batters per nine innings. With the Astros best reliever (Ryan Pressly) hitting the injured list Biagini will help bridge the gap to closer Roberto Osuna.
The big-name here though is Aaron Sanchez. The 26-year-old hasn’t had an ERA under 4 since his All-Star season in 2016, but he has also been hampered by injury in the years since then.
Sanchez still shows promise, both because of his age and his underlying numbers. The most basic of those is that his FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA, which speaks to a lot of room to improve. Opponents are also hitting .340 on balls in play against Sanchez, so going from a team like Toronto (18th in DRS and 27th in UZR) to one like Houston (3rd in DRS and 13th in UZR) should help Sanchez greatly.
Let’s not forget Houston also has a pretty good track record when it comes to bringing in struggling or underperforming arms and returning them to ace form (Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, ever heard of ’em?).
The trade with Toronto wasn’t even the Astros biggest move, however, as news broke after the deadline had passed that Houston had come to another agreement, this time with the Arizona Diamondbacks and this time they acquired someone already in the Cy Young race: Zack Greinke.
At 35-years-old Greinke has been incredible this year. No other way to say it. He’s got an ERA of 2.87 and is walking fewer batters than he has at any other point in his career. Oh and the Astros can use him off the bench as a pinch hitter if they so choose because pretty sure a .563 slugging percentage is an asset.
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Loser: New York Yankees
The Yankees are one of the best teams in the AL, leading the division by eight games and having a 99% chance to make the postseason (according to Fangraphs) and that is entirely thanks to their offense.
The Yankees five starting pitchers all have an ERA over 4 and only one below 4.70 and that would be second-year starter Domingo German who is setting a new career-high in innings with every start.
Coming into the deadline the Yankees were linked to Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Bauer, and Zack Greinke. They ended up with exactly zero of those guys.
Either the Yankees didn’t like the prices or simply believe their offense can carry them all the way to their 28th championship (it can’t) but they had one weakness and failed to address it, making them losers of this deadline.
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays (sorta)
The Rays being winners here is a two-part equation. The first part of this equation is the Yankees failure at the deadline, which should keep Tampa Bay’s hopes for the division crown alive especially with Tyler Glasnow rehabbing and seemingly on his way back.
The second part is the acquisition of Jesus Aguilar from the Brewers.
While Aguilar isn’t quite the force he was last year when he posted an OPS of .891 there is still hope that the slugger can turn it around. Why?
For starters, Aguilar is walking more and striking out less this year, and secondly, over his last 50 plate appearances Aguilar is slashing .311/.347/.600 with three homers (his season total is eight) so the Rays are hopeful he can keep it up and solidify what has been a revolving door at first base.
The Rays also acquired pitchers Trevor Richards and Nick Anderson from Miami for Ryne Stanek and prospect Jesus Sanchez.
Anderson is the most relevant here, as he currently holds a 3.91 ERA but also has a FIP of 2.72 and has struck out 69 compared to just 16 walks.
Richards has been used as a starter which the Rays badly need until some of their injured guys start coming back. He has a 4.50 ERA but just like Houston, the Rays have a track record of unlocking the potential for middling players.
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Loser: St. Louis Cardinals
Up one game in the NL Central over the Cubs going into the deadline, the Cardinals elected to do nothing to strengthen their position, while the Cubs made a few moves the most notable of those being the acquisition of Nicholas Castellanos and his league-leading 37 doubles.
The Cardinals are in dire need of another starter to replace the uninspiring tandem of Michael Wacha and Daniel Ponce De Leon in the fifth rotation spot. Or if they are truly comfortable with those two another bullpen arm to make an already good unit dominant would have been a smart move.
But instead, the Cardinals are choosing to soldier on with their current team.
Now there is something to be said for the front office not wanting to part with Dylan Carlson and Nolan Gorman, their two prospects with the most potential, which would have kept them out of any talks for Syndergaard or Greinke or Bauer.
But they could have still swung a deal for Zack Wheeler or Mark Melancon, someone in that second or third tier. Yet they still didn’t.
So now they must hope that their stars like Paul Goldschmidt and Miles Mikolas will stay hot, that Marcell Ozuna can still be the power source he was before hitting the IL and that some of their struggling players like Paul DeJong will pull it together.
Bonus Winners: Cubs, for reasons stated above
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Winner: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds may be in fourth place in the NL Central but they made a couple of savvy moves this week.
Let’s start with the headliner. The Reds were able to acquire frontline starter Trevor Bauer in exchange for impending free agent Yasiel Puig and a couple of prospects. Shipping off Taylor Tremmell may prove to be a mistake down the line as the outfielder looked promising and like a potential future All-Star in previous seasons but struggled this year.
However, acquiring Bauer should be worth it for Cincinnati. The Reds could keep him to create a three-headed monster of Bauer, Luis Castillo, and Sonny Gray and shoot for contention in 2020, or they could let him continue to accumulate value for the rest of this season before flipping him this Winter and returning a blue-chip prospect or two.
The second move Cincinnati made was shipping off another pending free agent, Tanner Roark, to the Oakland Athletics.
The A’s are once again in playoff contention and once again in need of starting pitching help. Roark and his 4.24 ERA adds some stability for the A’s and the Reds get back a prospect who was in Oakland’s top 10 and a second-round pick in 2018.
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Loser: Philadelphia Phillies
They simply didn’t do enough. The division-leading Braves added Shane Greene and his 1.18 ERA while the Nationals added a handful of relievers as well.
The Phillies acquired Jason Vargas and Corey Dickerson when David Robertson just went down for the year and they were already missing Andrew McCutchen.
Dickerson seems like a good solution, as he carries a .315/.373/.551 slash line, but he has struggled with injuries this year.
The pitching is the real issue.
The Phillies are just a half-game out of the wild card and their offense is finally starting to come to life along with Jake Arrietta, but they could have used another arm. Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta have been shaky. In the bullpen, Hector Neris and Seranthony Dominguez haven’t been as effective as last year.
Drew Smyly has been pitching like a man reborn, allowing just one run in two starts spanning 13 innings, but after an 8.42 ERA with the Texas Rangers last year it’s fair to question if that will last.
After spending big in the offseason and now on the bubble of playoff contention, it’s just a wonder why the Phillies didn’t do more at the deadline.
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Unsure: New York Mets
As always, the Mets are an enigma. They shipped off Jason Vargas, then acquired Marcus Stroman then put Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler on the block and then held on to both of them.
If the Mets are going to try and flip Stroman this winter or they truly want to try and make a push no one is sure.
However the ingredients are there for a playoff push, the Mets have a good offensive core with Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso and J.D. Davis with contributions from Robinson Cano and Todd Frazier as well. Then, of course, the rotation of Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom, Wheeler and now Stroman.
The Mets have won eight of their last ten, are on a six-game winning streak and now find themselves just 4 and a half games out of the second wild-card spot.
If this works and the Mets sneak into the postseason they become winners, but if they are sitting out and lose Wheeler for nothing, or one of Stroman/Syndergaard gets hurt then it’ll make the front office look awful.
2019 MLB Trade Deadline
Also Unsure*: Cleveland Indians
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This is tricky. On one hand, the Indians badly needed outfield help, and get it in the form of Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes. Puig is having a solid year with 22 homers and that cannon arm, and he immediately becomes the starting right fielder for the Tribe. Franmil Reyes is a huge power threat off the bench or from the DH spot, with 27 homers and a .536 slugging percentage.
Cleveland has been on a charge recently and after scuffling early in the season now find themselves holding the first wild card and just 3 games back of the Twins for the AL Central crown.
On the other hand, they traded their ace. Corey Kluber will remain out for a few more weeks with an elbow injury, Carlos Carrasco may not be back this season as he battles cancer, and now Bauer is gone. That leaves Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. That duo has been great for Cleveland but you need more than two starters in the postseason.
Obviously, the Indians have done just fine so far, and Kluber will be back at some point, and the offensive boost could offset the loss of Bauer and his antics, but who knows if that will work when it comes to face the Twins, Yankees, Rays or Astros.
Next. Yankees: The many ways the deadline was a fail. dark
*Leaning towards winners due to the prospects Cleveland received in the deal, as they set themselves up for 2019 and the future.