MLB: The greatest hits of week 18
By Bill Felber
Olson, Chapman and Thaiss all produce in the clutch
It was a productive week for MLB players on the West Coast named Matt.
On Sunday, Matt Olson delivered the game-winning hit as the Oakland Athletics rallied in the ninth inning to beat the Texas Rangers.
That same day, the Angels’ Matt Thaiss beat Baltimore with a walk-off home run.
Two days later, Olson delivered again, this time with a 10th inning home run that broke up Oakland’s 2-2 tie with Milwaukee.
Then on Thursday, it was Matt Chapman’s turn to sink the Brewers. His eighth inning home run off Josh Hader turned a 3-2 Brewers lead into an eventual Oakland victory.
That made for an odd coincidence: four of the week’s six most impactful hits being struck by California-based players named Matt.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
From 10 to 1, here’s the full list of the 10 most meaningful base hits – or non-hits — of the past week.