8. Seth Lugo, 39 percent
It’s rare when the probabilities of an entire game turn on an out – game-swinging base hits are far, far more common. But that’s what happened when the Mets and White Sox opened an inter-league series Tuesday night in Chicago.
The Mets held a 2-1 lead entering the bottom of the eighth inning, both runs having scored on infield outs. That turned out to be sort of a theme for the evening. But in the eighth, the White Sox finally got to Mets starter Noah Syndergaard.
Yolmer Sanchez began the threat with a base hit to right, and Adam Engel followed with a ground single past the left side of the Mets infield. Syndergaard recovered enough to strike out Leury Garcia, giving manager Mickey Callaway just enough time to warm up left-handed reliever Justin Wilson.
Jon Jay was Wilson’s task, and he tried a bunt but popped it up, only to see the ball fall harmlessly between the mound and first base for an infield hit.
Jay’s hit created one of those unusual situations where the White Sox, although trailing, were actually the statistical favorites to win by a measure of 56 percent. With the bases loaded, those odds were only helped by the presence of slugging first baseman Jose Abreu as the next hitter.
But Seth Lugo, summoned to face Abreu, turned the tide back in New York’s favor with one pitch. On a 3-2 count, Lugo coaxed a sharp grounder to third that Todd Frazier turned into an around-the-horn double play to end the inning and preserve the lead.
The White Sox were by no means through, tying the game in the ninth. But Lugo’s retiring of Abreu killed the home team’s best opportunity, and in the 11th New York scored three times to clinch a 5-2 extra inning decision.