Chicago Cubs: Eleven days in August that can change the NL Central

As the Chicago Cubs hit the road, those 11 days will be pivotal to the NL Central race

The National League Central race may be functionally decided in the next 11 days.

That may seem an odd thing to assert since the three contenders – the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers – do not play each other even once during that span. Yet it is entirely conceivable that by the close of action one week from Sunday, the Chicago Cubs could have all but formally put away the division.

It’s also entirely possible that by that same date they may have fumbled away the three-game divisional lead they’ve spent the past week building.

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The key element that makes the next 11 days pivotal to baseball’s most interesting division is that the division leaders spend that entire time on the road. Chicago has been one of the most bi-polar teams in many years, dominating opponents at Wrigley Field but looking inept away from home.

So the question as this stretch begins — and it is a legitimate one for Joe Maddon and his team — is whether they can abruptly reverse almost a season-long pattern of road incompetence.

Based solely on the schedule, they’ll have a chance, since seven of their next 10 games will be played against the two weak sisters in their division. The Cubs open a four-game series Thursday night in Cincinnati, followed by three games in Philadelphia and a concluding three against the Pirates. The first two of those will be played in  Pittsburgh, the last in Williamsport, Pa..

While that’s going on, the second place Cardinals play three games at home against the Pirates, followed by a pair of mid-week games in Kansas City and four of their own in Cincinnati.

The third place Brewers come home Friday to open a three-game inter-league series against the Texas  Rangers, followed by two with the Twins and three games in Washington against the Nationals.

Given that they enter this stretch with that three-game cushion – founded on a 5-1 homestand in which they beat up on the Brewers and Oakland A’s – the Cubs hold the controlling interest here. If they prove that they can go on the road and perform at a level to be expected of a divisional leader – playing at least .500 ball  — they are very likely to return home in late August with both  the divisional lead  and a favorable remaining schedule. From Aug 20 on the Cubs play 21 of their final 37 games at Wrigley Field, where they have compiled a daunting 41-19 record.

At Wrigley, the Cubs have lost only one series all season, in the process winning a combined 11 of 12 from the Cardinals and Brewers. In their just-concluded homestand, they outscored the Brewers and Athletics 36-22, giving up 11 of those 22 runs in their only home loss.

For the season they have out-scored opponents at Wrigley Field 301-227.

But when the Cubs go on the road, as they will do beginning Thursday, they are a different and far more vulnerable team. They’ve won only 21 of 54 road starts, a record that is more comparable with the Orioles (21-35) and Marline (20-35) than with a division leader. Of the six division leaders, the Cubs are the only one with a road winning percentage worse than .550 – and at .389 it is a lot worse.

The Cubs seem especially susceptible in close games played on the road. On their most recent trip, a nine-game excursion to San Francisco, Milwaukee and St. Louis, they went 3-6, losing four times by one run and three times surrendering late leads. Since mid-May their record in road games decided by one or two runs is 3-12.

Cincinnati, their first stop on the upcoming 10-game trip, has been a particular hellhole. The Cubs are 2-4 in their first six games in Cincy, and that’s despite having held their own in run production, both scoring and allowing 25 runs in those six games.

But the Cubs have been bad at critical moments in Cincinnati. They lost 6-5 May 15 when Eugenio Suarez’s 10th inning walk-off base hit capped a comeback keyed by Suarez’ eighth inning home run to erase a 5-3 Cubs lead. One night later they lost a 2-0 lead and fell 4-2.

The Cubs’ only series in Pittsburgh to date followed the same script. Their three losses in four games included a 6-5 walk-off in which the Pirates greeted new Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel with a pair of ninth inning runs.

If the Cubs manage to play even .500 ball over the next 11 days, it will be difficult for either the Cardinals or Brewers to gain an upper hand on them in the standings before Aug. 19. That date is critical because not only do the Cubs return home for the bulk of the season, but the Cardinals and Brewers begin a three-game series in St. Louis, one that is guaranteed to hurt somebody’s chances of challenging the Cubs.

If, on the other hand, the Chicago Cubs turn in their heretofore standard 3-7 road performance in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, they would cede to the Cardinals and/or Brewers a reasonable chance to catch and possibly overtake them in the NL Central by Aug. 19. The stretch could be especially favorable to the Cardinals, who also play the Pirates and Reds, and who supplement that with two games against the under-talented Kansas City Royals.