Phillies: Deadline’s X factors for 4 NL Wild Card teams
After the dust settled, the Phillies and two other National League competitors are within 2.5 games, but how do general manager Matt Klentak’s moves compare to his contemporaries for the stretch drive?
Turn the page:
Many Philadelphia Phillies fans have less interest in the wild-card race than New York Mets supporters. But if your club has a chance to win the NL Wild Card Game, you could –at least– enjoy the ups and downs of meaningful August and September baseball before NLDS reality strikes. The Los Angeles Dodgers!
IN OTHER WORDS: “Giving up is conceding that things will never get better, and that is just not true. Ups and downs are a constant in life, and I’ve been belted into that roller coaster a thousand times.” – Aimee Mullins
With July 31 in the rearview mirror, the Atlanta Braves have added two late-inning relievers and have a comfortable divisional lead. On the other end, rotation injuries to the Milwaukee Brewers have dropped them in the NL Wild Card race at a critical time they might not recover from.
Presently, the impression of many locals is the lack of all-in deals before Aug. 1 equals missing the playoffs. And they may believe the red pinstripes are at a disadvantage in the final two months due to the competition’s pickups. Ergo, Klentak’s acquisitions –they feel– are only a Band-Aid on a gaping wound.
Regarding the NL Wild Card Game, the winner has to rely on their best starter to secure the victory but also must face the Dodgers in Los Angeles with that top pitcher having one outing: probably game three at home. So, the odds definitely favor the top NL organization.
While many are concluding a lack of commitment from management, the front office is saving those MiLB trade chips for 2020 instead. Otherwise, those same detractors will bemoan moving solid minor leaguers for a shot in the dark rather than waiting a year for a more favorable opportunity.
The Phils’ postseason window opened in 2019 for the first of five campaigns, and the execs made their decisions based on multiple chances for a championship. Unfortunately, only armchair GMs don’t have limits and rules preventing them from assembling a powerhouse club.
That stated, expectations are fans’ biggest obstacle. To illustrate, I predicted a four-team race for the NL East with good health being the deciding factor. Without that, the best hope would be capturing a wild-card berth. Ergo, the Fightins are in the thick of the hunt.
Challengers from the NL Central:
If the Brewers struggle, the Phillies will have one less competitor for an NL Wild Card berth. Currently, Milwaukee has lost six of their last 10 contests due in part to the injury bug affecting their ace and three other starters. Due to this, their fall in the standings is more than just a rough patch. Are they overcoming it?
As the Brew Crew’s stud, Brandon Woodruff is 11-3 with a 3.75 ERA, but he landed on the IL (injured list) with a left oblique strain on July 22. Realistically, Milwaukee is expecting a six-week recovery for Woodruff (early September) after the MiLB campaign ends. He’ll then rehab at their pre-season facility or with simulated games.
On July 30, the Brewers traded for Jordan Lyles of the Pittsburgh Pirates to prop up their five-man staff. He is 7-7 with a 4.97 ERA after two decent performances with his new organization. Basically, they plugged a two-month hole with only Lyles due to their financial ceiling: He had $683 thousand remaining on his pact.
Entering the second half at 44-44, the St. Louis Cardinals have gone 14-11 but are 2-8 in their last 10 contests. And even though they are three games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, they didn’t add anyone to their 25-man roster. Did they find the asking prices on available talent to be too high?
They have a decent bullpen but are a middle-of-the-pack squad with their rotation and runs scored. On the other hand, they have received disappointing numbers from some regulars and starters. Currently, they are behind by half a game for the second wild card.
Divisional foe:
If they suffer three consecutive defeats, the Cubs could be back in the wild-card competition with the Phillies. From a distance, though, the shorthanded Brew Crew and the standpat Cards are facing a more difficult path to the NLCS. Translation: advantage Chicago.
The Cubbies acquired Nicholas Castellanos from the Detroit Tigers to bolster their offense. At this point, the right fielder is averaging .280 with 12 home runs and 40 RBIs. And he provides additional length to their batting order.
In the pen, they picked up southpaw Derek Holland from the San Francisco Giants. But he has 30 relief appearances with a 5.57 ERA. So, they’ll probably use him as a lefty specialist during the stretch run and October.
In the NL East, the red pinstripes and the Washington Nationals are going back and forth from identical records to a small difference. But free agency is looming for their third baseman, and he may test the market if the Nationals’ offer isn’t to his liking.
While their offense is formidable, Max Scherzer has landed on the IL with a mid-back strain after struggling with back soreness in mid-July. However, the injury report lists him as a possible late August return. Of course, the Nats addressed their main shortcoming near the deadline: the relief corps between the starter and the closer.
Washington dealt for right-handers Hunter Strickland from the Seattle Mariners and Daniel Hudson from the Toronto Blue Jays. After three Nationals’ outings, Strickland has lowered his ERA from 8.10 to 5.68 for seven 2019 performances. Meanwhile, Hudson has a 3.00 ERA for 50 appearances including one start.
Regarding portsiders, the Nationals have replaced Sipp with Roenis Elias, but the new addition is on the IL after one appearance with a mid-August return expected. Overall, he has a 3.59 ERA for 45 opportunities. On the other hand, Sipp had a 4.71 ERA with 38 chances when they designated him for assignment.
The Fightins:
Many locals are underestimating the Phillies trades due to lacking pizzazz. Rotation-wise, left-hander Drew Smyly has a 3.00 ERA here despite an overall 7.01 ERA, but the control pitcher may have a shorter time frame to be effective again after returning from TJ surgery, while flamethrowers take longer.
Southpaw Jason Vargas relies strictly on finesse and can supply six frames on many occasions. In fact, he has rebounded from a career-worst 2018 with a 6-6 mark and a 4.09 ERA this summer. Plus the soft tosser offers a different look from others on the five-man staff.
In the bullpen, the red pinstripes have acquired right-handers Blake Parker and Mike Morin. Parker has a 4.57 ERA for 41 outings, and Morin has a 3.77 ERA over 29 opportunities. Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta as a late-inning option opened some eyes with his first MLB save, and he has a 2.31 ERA for 11 2/3 relief frames.
As for the offense, Klentak picked up Corey Dickerson who is hitting .315 with six homers and 29 RBIs. Plus he’s a solid left field defender who could be the regular there and allow Bruce to perform the bench role the GM had in mind. Perhaps, Dickerson who has a .367 OBP may be the leadoff man going forward.
After the Chicago White Sox series, the doubting Thomases can focus on those three ballgames as all the proof needed to dismiss a wild-card reality. But the good guys won the other three series with a 6-2 second-half record against Pittsburgh, Detroit and San Francisco.
Since the All-Star break, the Phils have gone 1-2 each against the Braves and Nats plus 2-2 versus the Dodgers. Is it possible that they’d go 2-2 against those three clubs in any four-game series but lose in an odd-numbered matchup? If so, is there a chance to win one game or a five-game series? Yes!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* Left-handed hurler
Pitching stats for 2019 through Aug. 7:
*Smyly, 30:
- Total: 16 Gms. (4 relief), 69 1/3 Inn., 2-6, a 7.01 ERA, a 6.57 FIP, a 5.49 xFIP, a 5.07 SIERA, a -0 .2 fWAR and a 1.64 WHIP.
Phillies: 3 Gms., 18 Inn., 1-1, a 3.00 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP.
*Vargas, 36.5:
- Total: 21 Gms. (1 relief), 105 2/3 Inn., 6-6, a 4.09 ERA, a 4.66 FIP, a 5.07 xFIP, a 5.01 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
Phillies: 2 Gms., 11 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 4.76 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.
Lyles, 28.5:
- Total: 19 Gms. 92 1/3 Inn., 7-7, a 4.97 ERA, a 4.92 FIP, a 4.50 xFIP, a 4.56 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
Brewers: 2 Gm., 10 Inn., 2-0, a 1.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.
Parker, 34:
- Total: 41 Gms., 41 1/3 Inn., a 4.57 ERA, 10 Saves, 9 Holds, a 5.32 FIP, a 4.40 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.
Phillies: 4 Gms., 5 Inn., a 7.20 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
Morin, 28:
- Total: 29 Gms., 31 Inn., a 3.77 ERA, 1 Save, 1 Hold, a 4.22 FIP, a 4.79 xFIP, a 4.52 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
Phillies: 6 Gms., 8 1/3 Inn., a 5.40 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.
Hudson, 32.5:
- Total: 50 Gms. (1 start), 51 Inn., a 3.00 ERA, 2 Saves, 9 Holds, a 4.04 FIP, a 5.17 xFIP, a 4.42 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
Nationals: 4 Gms., 3 Inn., a 3.00 ERA, 1 Save and a 0.33 WHIP.
Strickland, almost 31:
- Total: 7 Gms., 6 1/3 Inn., a 5.68 ERA, 2 Saves, 2 Holds, a 4.64 FIP, a 6.01 xFIP, a 4.50 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 0.79 WHIP.
Nationals: 3 Gms., 3 Inn., a 3.00 ERA, 2 Holds and a 1.00 WHIP.
*Elias, 31:
- Total: 45 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 3.59 ERA, 14 Saves, 2 Holds, a 4.60 FIP, a 4.66 xFIP, a 4.29 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
Nationals: 1 Gm., 0 2/3 Inn., a 0.00 ERA, 1 Hold and a 0.00 WHIP.
Hitting stats for 2019 through Aug. 7:
Dickerson, 30:
- Total: 49 Gms., 143 AB, a .315 Avg., a .367 OBP, a .566 SLG, a .259 ISO, a .352 BABIP, 6 HR, 29 RBI, a .934 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
Phillies: 5 Gms., 16 AB, a .313 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .688 SLG, 2 HR, 5 RBI and a 1.000 OPS.
Castellanos, 27.5:
- Total: 107 Gms., 469 PA, a .280 Avg., a .333 OBP, a .477 SLG, a .197 ISO, a .339 BABIP, 12 HR, 40 RBI, an .810 OPS and a 1.1 fWAR.
Cubs: 7 Gms., 29 AB, a .379 Avg., a .400 OBP, a .690 SLG, 1 HR, 3 RBI and a 1.090 OPS.
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