MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits of Week-19

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

10. Alex Gordon, 37 percent

It was the opener of a meaningless little series between the ne’er-do-wells of the AL Central. But the Tigers and Royals played that Thursday contest as if a playoff spot was on the line. In the end, Alex Gordon’s home run didn’t decide the outcome, but that did not detract from the hit’s drama.

Thanks to a five-run second inning, the Tigers led 6-5 when Gordon came to bat in the top half of the sixth inning. It had been a back-and-forth struggle not at all befitting the teams’ combined 77-155 records. Kansas City jumped in front with a pair of first-inning runs, Detroit returned fire with a five-run second, the Royals tied the game in the third and the Tigers regained the advantage with single runs in the third and fourth.

Gordon stood in against Tiger reliever Jose Cisnero, Royals Nicky Lopez and Nick Dini having opened the inning with hits. His home run put KC back on top 8-7 and also created a 37 percent swing in the game odds, improving the chances of a KC victory from just 23 percent to 60 percent.

The math didn’t hold because Travis Demeritte hit a game-tying home run in the seventh and because Jordy Mercer walked off the victory with a one-out, two-run blast.

But while Mercer’s homer may have won the game, by that point – runner on, just one out, the bottom of the ninth of a tie game – Detroit was already the statistical favorite by a margin of 71 percent. Gordon’s however, however futile it ultimately proved to be, statistically moved the needle more.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

9. Eric Hosmer, 37 percent

It was a rough weekend in Los Angeles for the San Diego Padres. On Thursday, Will Smith tapped them for four hits including a home run in an 8-2 Dodger decision. The Padres won 5-2 Friday, but Walker Buehler held them to just one run on five hits in a 4-1 Dodger win Saturday.

Then on Sunday, Max Muncy and Russell Martin roughed up Padres rookie find Chris Paddock with second-inning home runs, providing Kenta Maeda with a quick 3-0 lead. Clearly, something had to be done and veteran Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer appointed himself to do it.

Hosmer’s teammates set the stage. Francisco Mejia opened the third with a double, and one out later Paddock singled Mejia home with San Diego’s first run. Fernando Tatis Jr. fanned, but Greg Garcia singled and Manny Machado drew a walk, loading the bases.

Although it was only the third inning, the situation loomed as potentially pivotal.  The bases were full, but there were two out and the Padres trailed by two runs. The combination put their odds of winning at just 31 percent, yet still laden with potential.

Hosmer cashed the potential. On a 2-1 pitch, he lined a grand slam into the right-field bleachers, turning that 3-1 deficit into a 5-3 lead.

With that single swing, the odds of the Padres escaping Los Angeles with a split soared to 68 percent.

It did not, however, work out that way, as will be detailed in a subsequent entry.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

8. Vlad Guerrero Jr., 38 percent

The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t ready yet to contend in the AL East. But you have to love a team bursting with prospects of the stripe of Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez and Cavan Biggio.

Facing the division-leading New York Yankees Saturday in Toronto, it was Vlad Guerrero’s turn to stand out.

The Yankees carried a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the seventh inning and appeared ready to win their third straight in the four-game series. Adam Ottavino, the fifth Yankee pitcher in a “bullpen game” took the mound to protect that slim advantage, retiring the first Blue Jay hitter, Danny Jansen, on a ground out.

Then the Jays youngsters intervened. Bichette started it by drawing a base on balls on a 3-2 pitch. Biggio followed by lining a single to right, and suddenly Guerrero came to the plate with the tying and go-ahead runs on base.

Guerrero’s performance is only beginning to catch up with his reputation, but following a slow start, he has raised his batting average to .274 with 13 home runs and a .807 OPS. Ottavino quickly got ahead on an 0-2 count, then tried to slip a high fastball past Guerrero on the outside corner. The Jays slugger got enough of the pitch to shoot it down the right-field line at Rogers Centre, scoring Bichette and Biggio with the tying and lead runs and barely beating the relay to third base for the first triple of his career.

With Jason Adam and Derek Law protecting that lead through the final six outs, Guerrero’s hit emerged as the decisive one in Toronto’s 5-4 win.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

7. Michael Conforto, 39 percent

This was not a good week to be a Washington Nationals reliever.

On Sunday, the Nats pen allowed a pair of seventh-inning runs that turned a 5-5 tie with the Arizona Diamondbacks into a 7-5 defeat. On Friday, closer Sean Doolittle allowed the Mets four ninth-inning runs to undermine a 6-3 Washington lead. Then on Saturday, the pen lost a 3-2 lead to the Mets on a pair of eighth-inning runs.

The Friday outcome was, obviously, the most galling, and its ruination was seeded by a pair of the week’s most impactful plays.

Michael Conforto delivered the second, capstone blow. By then the Mets had already rallied against Doolittle to affix a 6-6 tie by methods that will be dealt with momentarily.

Once that tie was in place, with three outs remaining to be gotten, Doolittle compounded his problems by allowing a base hit to recently acquired second baseman Joe Panik. Juan Lagares tried to move Panik into scoring position but succeeded merely in forcing him at second base. Doolittle then retired Jeff McNeil on a fly ball.

That left Doolittle just one out away from at least sending the game into extra innings. He could not, however, get that final out. Amed Rosario grounded a single into left field advancing Lagares into scoring position, and on a 2-2 pitch Conforto delivered the coup de grace, a line drive hit into the gap in right.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

6. Todd Frazier, 43 percent

Even before Conforto’s hit, Doolittle obviously was in trouble. Given that 6-3 lead to start the final inning, he was playing to a virtually certain outcome; teams staked to a three-run lead with three outs remaining win approximately 97 percent of the time.

Doolittle, however, entered the game having already blown four saves, and with a 1.31 WHIP that is unimpressive by the standards of the modern closer. That meant the Mets had a chance, and they took it.

J.D. Davis opened the ninth by doubling to left field. Wilson Ramos followed with a single that sent David to third and brought Todd Frazier to the plate with the potential tying run. The presence of those two baserunners alone had already shifted the odds toward New York’s cause, although even in that situation there remained an 80 percent likelihood of a Washington victory.

The 2019 season has continued a string of uninspired seasons for Frazier, the depth of that stretch illustrated by the fact that his .240 average represented his best since 2015. He had, however, produced 14 home runs, evidence that he remained a threat.

In that moment against the Nats, the threat became reality. Frazier got a 2-1 pitch and drove it down the left-field line, the ball carrying into the Citi Field seats for a game-tying home run.  It also set the stage for Conforto’s heroics yet to come.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

5. Miguel Sano, 43 percent

Where would the Minnesota Twins be without Miguel Sano? Probably not clinging to first place in the AL Central.

As a third baseman and occasional DH, Miguel Sano has been a central player in Minnesota’s season-long power display. He’s manufactured 20 of the team’s 228 home runs and has compiled a .898 OPS.

On Monday in the opener of a three-game series against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, Sano saved the Twins just at the instant they appeared likely to face extra innings.

Atlanta had rallied with a  pair of the seventh inning runs to erase Minnesota’s 3-1 lead at Target Field, and the game continued deadlocked into the bottom of the ninth.  Facing Braves reliever Chris Martin, the first two Twins batters – Eddie Rosario and Marwin Gonzalez – both went down on groundouts.

That left the outcome up to Luis Arreaz, whose shot handcuffed Josh Donaldson enough to go as an infield hit and give Sano a chance.

The Twins slugger looked over a first-pitch fastball, then rocketed the next one over the wall in center for a walk-off. The hit not only gave Minnesota a desperately needed victory, but it prevented a series sweep by the Braves. They took both the Tuesday and Wednesday games,  further endangering Minnesota’s divisional lead entering the weekend series with second-place Cleveland.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

4. Eric Thames, 46 percent

The Milwaukee Brewers’ ongoing effort to catch the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central has been slowed by injuries to the team’s rotation, and lately by the sidelining of reigning MVP Christian Yelich, also with an injury.

But the Brewers still have plenty of offensive firepower, including first baseman Eric Thames.

Friday night as they hosted the Texas Rangers in the opener of a three-game series, it did not look like the Brewers would need to count on the long ball. They used two walks, two doubles and a single to post three runs and seize a 5-2 lead.

Then after Logan Forsythe’s two-run eighth-inning home run brought the Rangers within a run, Brewers manager Craig Counsell turned the game over to ace reliever Josh Hader in the belief that Hader would lock down the final five outs.  It didn’t happen; in the ninth, Elvis Andrus homered to tie the game

Rangers manager Chris Woodward relied on young reliever Emmanuel Clase, who had retired the Brewers in order in the eighth, to handle the ninth as well. Clase set down the first two batters, Keston Hiura, and Mike Moustakas, on a strikeout and an easy infield grounder. But he fell behind Thames 3-1 and had to come in with a hittable fastball. Thames hit it all right, into the seats in right field for a walk-off.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

3. Ronald Acuna, 47 percent

On their way to the lead in the NL East, the Braves have specialized in comebacks. They powered their way to yet another last Sunday against the visiting Cincinnati Reds, the only difference being that this time it didn’t hold up.

The Reds gradually built a 3-0 lead through the middle innings, and Sonny Gray stifled Atlanta on just four hits through seven innings. But Gray left after seven innings, having delivered 110 pitches, and his departure opened the door for Atlanta to go on the offense against the Reds bullpen.

Josh Donaldson didn’t waste any time, slamming a 3-2 pitch from reliever Lucas Sims for a home run to start the eighth. Yet the Braves still trailed 3-1 entering the ninth when Amir Garrett took over on the mound for Sims.

Garrett retired Tyler Flowers on an infield grounder but made the mistake of walking Freddie Freeman on a 3-1 pitch ahead of Acuna. As he stood in, Acuna had fanned twice in his last three plate appearances, but he knew how to make amends.  On a 3-2 pitch, he drilled a game-tying home run into the right-field seats to the delight of the Sun trust Park crowd.

Robert Stephenson replaced Garrett and survived an extended Braves threat to record the inning’s final two outs, sending the game into extra innings. It also set up another Red to be a hero.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

2. Tucker Barnhart, 48 percent

The Cincinnati Reds are not yet contenders for National League honors, but they are making life difficult for teams that are. They’re doing it with a cast of emerging stars such as Luis Castillo, Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel and Josh VanMeter.

On Sunday, all those youngsters played a role in the Reds’ 6-4 win over the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. But it was a veteran face that sealed the deal.

As previously noted, the Reds had carried a 3-0 lead into the game’s late innings, only to see home runs by Donaldson and Acuna tie it. In the 10th, VanMeter set up a potential rally with a base hit, only to be erased when Senzel bounced a double-play ball to shortstop Johan Camargo.

Aquino faced Braves closer, Shane Greene, next, and lined a solid single into left. Jose Iglesias grounded a single through shortstop, bringing Barnhart to the plate.

A six-year veteran, Tucker Barnhart has not exactly flourished. He’s batting just .215 although his eight home runs to date position him for a career-high in that department.  Against the Braves recent bullpen acquisition, however, Barnhart looked like an all-star. He ripped Greene’s first fastball over the wall in right-center for a three-run home run and a 6-3 advantage.

Although the Braves did pick up a run in the bottom of the 10th, it wasn’t enough to offset the damage done by Barnhart.

MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits in Week-19

1. Max Muncy, 66 percent

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Hosmer’s third-inning grand slam gave the Padres a 5-3 lead, but the advantage see-sawed from that point. LA moved ahead 7-6 in the sixth inning, San Diego regained an 8-7 lead in the seventh, and the Padres survived a two-run Dodger eighth to maintain a 10-9 lead entering the bottom of the ninth.

Padres closer Kirby Yates, who had recorded the final out of the eighth inning, remained on the mound to start the bottom of the ninth, but a combination of his own problems plus a defensive lapse conspired against him. Joc Pederson opened the inning with a double down the line in right. Pederson was erased when he tried to advance to third on Alex Verdugo’s bouncer to Hosmer at first, and Corey Seager slapped a potential double-play ball to Luis Urias, a defensive replacement at second base. But Urias fumbled the ball, allowing Seager to reach safely as Verdugo pulled into second.

With the tying run at second and the winner at first, this weeks “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hit” went to Max Muncy who came up next. Yates ran the count to 3-2, then slipped Muncy a pitch he could pull. The ball shot into the Dodger Stadium right field corner as Seager followed Verdugo across the plate for the 11-10 victory.