In week-19 of “MLB Rankings: Greatest Hits,” we rank the top 10 base hits in MLB based on their impact on Weighted Win Probability Added.
In this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits,” as National League teams continue to learn, you may think you have the Los Angeles Dodgers beaten. But until that 27th out is recorded don’t count on it.
Last Sunday in Los Angeles, Max Muncy drove that point home once again to the San Diego Padres. For most of the game, and certainly, after Eric Hosmer’s grand slam home run gave pitching star Chris Paddock a third inning jump start, it looked like San Diego would escape Dodger Stadium with a split of the teams’ four-game series.
But Muncy had other ideas, walking off the Padres with a double that illustrated why Los Angeles is viewed as the odds-on favorite to win a third straight National League pennant.
This countdown recognizes the 10 most game-critical base hits of the past week. Our measuring stick is Weighted Win Probability Added, which is the percentage improvement in a team’s chances of victory brought about by the hit in question. Where ties exist, they are broken by Weighted Win Expectancy, which is the probability of a team’s winning the game at the conclusion of the play.
Weighted Win Probability Added is one of those so-called New Stats, but it’s based on data that’s been around a while. Simply put, every at-bat improves or harms a team’s chances of winning, depending on the game situation and the at bat’s outcome. A home run hit in the late stages of a tight game is far more susceptible to move the Weighted Win Probability needle than the same home run hit in the early stages of a blowout.
Here are this week’s “MLB Rankings: Baseball’s Greatest Hits”.