Nationals Treasure: The Looming Anthony Rendon Situation

Earlier this season, the Washington Nationals flirted with the idea of trading Anthony Rendon? However, should they consider re-signing him?

HEY REAL QUICK:  From 2013 until through this season, if you had to think of a hitter that had a better OPS+ than Nolan Arenado, more doubles than Bryce Harper, and more RBI than Christian Yelich, would Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon be on your list?

To be honest, he wasn’t on mine, and probably not on yours either.  He just may be the quietest elite hitter in baseball, at least for now.  It has been reported that Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and Nationals ownership have dabbled with the idea of a contract extension for their mild-mannered masher, to help avoid him leaving the team to test free agency this coming offseason.  At the time of this writing, nothing seems imminent, but a quote from the above-linked article suggests that Rendon might be leaning towards testing the open market this winter:

“I mean, the opportunity has been there for five, six years now… And still open to it, still all ears, but the closer we get to that opportunity, it makes more sense as a player to think about my family and all these other variables that come into play. Why not look forward to it?”

So is this a good idea for the oft-overlooked slugger?  Free Agency has been a bit of dicey situation for players lately, but at the same time, but given a lack of marquee type players this upcoming offseason, could it be a financially smart move to test the market?

Let’s start with what an extension could look like for Tony Two-Bags.  Compare the two stat lines below, both from 2016 to current year:

PLAYER A:

• Triple Slash: .301/.369/.566
• 141 Home Runs
• 139 Doubles
• 127 OPS+

PLAYER B:

• Triple Slash:  .297/.379/.524
• 94 Home Runs
• 153 Doubles
• 133 OPS+

Player A would be Nolan Arenado, who plays in Coors Field, quite literally the greatest hitters park in the history of time, and player B is our ol’ buddy Tony.  Arenado received a hefty 7 year, $260MM contract extension this past offseason, so that gives us a pretty good read on the market for a player with seemingly similar offensive skills.

Of course, Arenado is an elite defender at the position as well, and Rendon grades out at about average depending on the year, so that will certainly play a role.  Anthony Rendon is also a year older, so getting an extension of that length could be a factor as well since the widespread belief is players over 30 are ticketed for a decline.

All that being known, let’s say from an armchair GM standpoint, let’s say an extension looks something like 4 years, $130MM.  That works out to be an AAV of $32.5MM (comparably close to Arenado’s $37MM/year) and would put him under control through his age 33 seasons.  Maybe a team option in there for a 5th year at the same rate?  Why not?  It makes sense for more reasons than you may realize…

The Nationals can’t afford to lose Anthony Rendon after Bryce Harper left

When news broke that Bryce Harper (also a Boras client) rejected an absurd extension offer from the Washington Nationals before the offseason began, and accepted a lesser salary offer on a team within its own division, the franchise frankly had egg on its face.

To many, the perception was that they had just let their franchise player walk across the street to enemy lines and set up camp.  If the Nationals want to keep their fan base, then letting Rendon enter a market where at least one division rival could be looking for a third baseman (Think a little south, in Atlanta) could be a risky endeavor.  An extension to Rendon could be more of a PR move than anything, either as a key bat in a competitive lineup or as veteran leadership on a rebuilding club.

In Today’s Free Agency, Rendon isn’t a “Headline” type Player, and it could Cost Him

Over the past three years of Free Agency, teams have tightened up on spending big money on front end talent, and that has starved both the media and fans during the winter months that used to be filled with such tension and anticipation.

Last year being the most extreme example, where two players, (Manny Machado and Bryce Harper) created such a buzz that ultimately, it resulted in bidding wars among both players, where their hype exceeded the value of their WAR.  It became symbolic if a team signed a top end player, that this team was ready to compete, and recently, the personalities of the players themselves have needed to match the headlines they would garner.   Anthony Rendon?  Not that guy.  T

he truth is, that Rendon would be one of (if not, arguably THE) best player to hit free agency this coming offseason, and if you’re a GM looking to boost your franchise out of rebuilding mode and get the fans behind you, the last thing you want to hear is “WHO?”… It’s not fair, but hey, it’s the entertainment business right?