NL Rookie of the Year race giving serious callbacks to 2007’s race

The battle for the NL ROY is down to essentially two guys. It is very reminiscent of a race for the trophy from 12 years ago.

Every season, rookies grace the stage and introduce themselves to the baseball world in several different ways. In this piece, we will delve into the 2019 NL ROY race.

Guys like Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Albert Pujols came onto the scene in the National League in very noticeable fashion. This year is no exception.

Pete Alonso of the New York Mets and Fernando Tatis Jr. have turned this into a two-man race given how well they’ve played this year.

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But looking at the similarities, and even some differences, this race is rather reminiscent of a former NL ROY race, one that led to increase accolades and humiliation for one, and increased success but a career that ended sooner than it could have for the other.

In 2007, a young shortstop out of Cal State Long Beach was named to the Colorado Rockies opening day roster; Troy Tulowitzki.

Weeks later, the Milwaukee Brewers called up their budding third baseman out of Miami in Ryan Braun.

By the time Braun was making a name for himself, Tulowitzki had all but accomplished one of baseball’s rarest of feats:

So both players would be the headliners in the NL ROY race all season. Braun powered his way to the award with 34 home runs, 97 RBI and a league-leading .634 slugging percentage.

Tulowitzki wasn’t so far off despite finishing in second. He had 24 bombs, 99 RBI and helped carry the Colorado Rockies to their first World Series in franchise history – they’d eventually get swept by the Boston Red Sox.

Tulo was overlooked because of the power numbers but his defensive WAR of 3.9 – which led the league in 2007 – made him one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball. Braun also committed the most errors at third base (26) which eventually got him moved to left field but I digress.

So what does this have to do with Tatis Jr. and Alonso? The similarities are already mapped out.

A power-hitting corner infielder who continues to smash the ball is getting far more love and attention than the well-rounded shortstop who is quickly becoming a defensive highlight reel on a weekly basis.

Yes, this game is all about the long ball in new-age baseball. That’s not a bad thing, but it ignores the other tools that scouts have so coveted since the early days of the game.

Imagine if Mike Trout wasn’t as good of a power hitter. He hit 30 home runs his rookie season but what if it was less? Would his defense be enough to save him? Would he still beat guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Yu Darvish for the 2012 rookie crown?

Alonso is dominating in the offensive department and has the advantage of playing the full season healthy; 38 home runs, 88 RBI, .589 slugging percentage and the Home Run Derby champion of 2019. His defense, however, is not as valuable. Currently, his oWAR of 4.3 is saving his -1.2 dWAR.

Tatis has been valuable on both sides. In just 84 games compared to Alonso’s 118, Tatis has 22 homers, 53 RBI, a .590 slugging percentage and an oWAR of 4.5. Although it is higher than Alonso by a couple of tenths, don’t forget that first base has far more offensive juggernauts than the shortstop position.

Defensively, Tatis’ 0.2 dWAR isn’t amazing but at least greater than Alonso. Shortstop is also the most valuable defensive position in baseball and Tatis has flashed plenty of leather this year:

So the defense only appears to be on the up and up.

No matter who wins this year, it is going to be an entertaining race to watch all the way to the end, and that’s what really matters.

Braun and Tulowitzki were separated by two (2) vote points. How will this race end? Who has your vote?