Call to the pen
Fansided

Astros: A Minor challenge to Justin Verlander for AL Cy Young

By Bill Felber

BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 11: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros looks on from the dugout during the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 11, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 11: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros looks on from the dugout during the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 11, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander is in a battle for votes with Mike Minor as the AL Cy Young Award as race heads into its final 6-weeks.

As the 2019 season moves toward its home stretch, the battle for the AL Cy Young Award appears to be a two-man fight. Award regular Justin Verlander of the AL West-leading Houston Astros is making a run at his second award. Verlander won in 2011, and six other times has finished among the top five in Cy Young voting.

But Verlander faces a serious challenge this season from an unlikely competitor, Texas Ranger left-hander Mike Minor. Unlike Verlander, the 31-year old Minor has no Cy Young pedigree – he’s never even gotten a vote in his eight-season career and just this season made his first All-Star team.

More from Call to the Pen

But Minor actually leads Verlander in a couple of the exotic “new stats” categories that AL Cy Young voters often value. If he finishes the season as strong as he has shown to date, he could mount a serious challenge to the Astro ace.

Although a handful of other pitchers merit mention, the numbers suggest that Lance Lynn, Shane Bieber, Gerrit Cole, and Mike Fiers are probably competing for third place. Unless one of them falters down the stretch, the contest will come down to Verlander or Minor.

Subjectively, Verlander might have an edge because he pitches for a contender, while Minor’s Rangers are also-rans. However, Cy Young voters have historically shown less inclination to require team success in order to be considered for this individual award as opposed to the Most Valuable Player award, which from time to time is team-dependent.

Gauging the preferences of Cy Young Award voters is a chancy exercise, but in recent seasons those voters have tended to look at excellence in four performance categories. Those four are earned run average, innings pitched, Wins Above Replacement and Weighted Win Probability Added.

With his AL-leading 2.82 ERA across an AL-leading 162.2 innings of work, the Astros’ ace holds an important edge in two traditional categories of measurement that tend to weigh heavily with voters. His 15-4 record is also better than Minor’s 11-6, although voters have in recent years tended to discount wins as too team-dependent.

If Minor has an advantage, it will be with those voters who tend to scrub next-level for their data. Minor is sprouting an impressive 7.0 WAR, nearly two games better than Justin Verlander (5.1), who is third behind Lynn (5.8). He also leads – by nearly a full game – in Weighted Win Probability Added at 3.31. Verlander is again third, this time behind Bieber (2.78).

There is one other potential category that might interest voters but it’s an esoteric one: head-to-head. Minor and Verlander squared off once this season, that meeting coming July 19 in Houston. Verlander went six innings and was the winning pitcher, allowing two runs and eight hits in an eventual 4-3 Astros victory. Minor took the loss, allowing all four Astros runs and seven hits in his seven innings of work.

The table below is designed to approximate the present standing of American League Cy Young Award contenders. The figures shown represent the standard deviations – as measured against the 30 American League pitchers on pace to qualify for the ERA title — for 10 most plausible Cy Young contenders in each of the four categories mentioned above. If the system is accurate, the pitcher with the highest total should be well-positioned to win the AL CY Young.

Next. Phils Pull Out All Stops to Secure Playoff Berth. dark

Pitcher, team                    ERA     Innings   WAR      WWPA      Total

Mike Minor, Tex               1.37        1.16        2.56       1.87         6.96

Justin Verlander, Hou     1.46        1.72       1.49        1.52         6.19

Lance Lynn, Tex                0.65       1.55        1.88        0.75        4.83

Shane Bieber, Cle             0.94       1.25        0.86        1.53        4.58

Gerrit Cole, Hou               1.40        1.26        0.92        0.88        4.46

Charlie Morton. TB          1.37        0.69        0.24       1.40        3.70

Mike Fiers, Oak                 0.92       0.54        0.69        1.18        3.34

Jose Berrios, Min              0.93      1.01         0.24        0.88        3.06

Wade Miley, Hou             1.27      -0.16        0.64        0.87        2.61

Lucas Giolito, CWS           0.79     -0.31       1.03         0.90        2.42

Home/Houston Astros