Joe Ross’ Power Sinker Finally Joins Him In Nationals Rotation

Nationals’ Joe Ross Returns

Earning the demotion

This season did not start out well for Ross. In his first real action since Tommy John surgery, Tyson Ross’ little bro sported a 9.85 ERA across a chunky 24 2/3 innings. Pitchers usually aim for less than one run per inning.

Here was a once-promising, hard-throwing, injury-recovered 26-year-old who more-or-less guaranteed the opponent a run every time out. Tough to find the right time to use that guy.

In his defense, it often takes pitchers until their second season back from Tommy John to truly look like themselves again. Ross was also pitching out of the bullpen for the first time in his career, and suffice to say, he didn’t seem comfortable.

Uneven usage and short bursts of high-leverage opportunities may have contributed to Ross’ many blowups, or maybe it was just too much to ask an unproven commodity like Ross to learn a new role while working his way back to full strength.

That’s a psychological handful for a kid already saddled with the collective struggles of the worst bullpen in the league. Every time Rosenthal or Barraclough or Suero blew a save, the leash for Ross got tighter and the spotlight brighter.

After the Nats (justifiably) exiled Ross to the minor leagues, he was activated on June 22nd.

He got one appearance. It came against the Braves in the biggest game of the season up to that point.

He didn’t seem comfortable.

Ross entered with a 9-8 lead just an inning after Trevor Rosenthal blew a four-run lead (he would be released the next day). It took all of 5 pitches (two singles and a double) for Ross to give it back and put the Nationals in a hole from which they would not recover.

The Nats optioned him back to Triple-A after the game. So long, Joe.

Nationals’ Joe Ross Returns

Earning the return

As late as the trade deadline, the idea of Ross making a significant appearance again for the Nationals seemed laughable. It simply wasn’t conceivable that the Nats could be foolish enough to entrust further innings to this guy – let alone have him take the rotation spot of team MVP and a future Hall-of-Famer.

But here’s the twist: he’s been great! Ross gave up his first run in three starts on Tuesday, ending a 17 1/3 scoreless inning streak since taking Scherzer’s spot in the rotation.

Ross is 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in 18 innings over that span. Maybe there’s some residual magic left in Scherzer’s wake, and when he returns, Ross will turn back into a pumpkin. But for now, he looks….comfortable?

The question here is consistency. Is Ross the guy with a 9.85 ERA in 24+ innings? Or the guy with a 0.50 ERA in 18 innings?

In baseball as in fairy tales, if one offering looks too hot, and another too cold, somewhere in the middle is probably jussssssst right. Say, a 5.91 ERA/4.88 FIP in 42+ innings, which is where Ross’ overall numbers stand today.

Nationals’ Joe Ross Returns

How is he doing it?

Maybe Ross’ ceiling is where he is now, a competent if inconsistent fifth starter.

But there is still the lingering promise of Ross’ early career that presupposes a higher ceiling. And there’s the eye test. Mirror, mirror on the wall…who’s disgusting?

I know this comparison will seem vulgar after three starts that, frankly, weren’t even all that great before Tuesday considering the control issues. But Ross reminds me a lot of another disgusting, one-time fifth starter: Jake Arrieta.

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Both Arrieta and Ross throw a power sinker, but these days Arrieta really leans on it. As the rest of the league has turned to the high-rising fastball, Arrieta has ditched it completely. Neither Ross nor Arrieta have much spin to their four-seamer, so they might not get the rising action that makes that pitch so effective.

Still, Ross goes to the four-seamer almost as often as he does the sinker. Via Statcast, Ross throws the sinker 35.1% of the time to 28.6% for his fastball.

It might be that he shouldn’t.

When Arrieta was struggling to make a rotation in Baltimore, he relied on his fastball too. Only when Arrieta started working with Chris Bosio in Chicago did he start to throw his sinker and fastball in equal proportions. When he made the sinker his primary pitch – throwing it 33.1% of the time versus the fastball at 18% – Arrieta won the Cy Young with a 1.77 ERA.

Since his triumphant return to the rotation, Ross, too, has pushed the sinker. Last night, he threw 46 sinkers (50%) to only 11 fastballs (12%). Ross made 278 pitches to get through these last 18 innings with sinker usage (50%) far outpacing the four-seam fastball (18%).

His fastball usage declined ever-so-slightly each time out, 21.8% to 20.6% to 11.1% on Tuesday. That’s a much different usage rate than we saw from Ross earlier this year – and a good sign for the Nationals.

For Arrieta the sinker was a revelation, but for Ross a return to his roots. Only since returning from Tommy John has he leaned so hard on the four-seamer. Over these past three starts, however, Joe Ross‘ sinker has returned to Nats Park, and it’s disgusting.