Joe Ross’ Power Sinker Finally Joins Him In Nationals Rotation

After a horrid start to the season, Joe Ross rediscovered his sinker and made his case to stay in the Nationals rotation after Max Scherzer returns.

Considering the 6-month long marathon that is the MLB season: it’s funny how quickly player evaluations can change.

Before the trade deadline, the Washington Nationals plan to fill out their rotation was, well, suspect. With Max Scherzer on the shelf, 40% of their starts were ticketed for this unrivaled trio: contact-dependent Erick Fedde, the injured Austin Voth, and the unequivocal, unrivaled trainwreck known as Joe Ross.

Fedde has the inside track on the fifth spot in the rotation, and despite a hard-to-look-at 1.33 K/BB across 66 innings, he’s earned it: 3-2, 4.09 ERA/5.21 FIP, 1.2 rWAR on the year. No need to doff your cap, but that kind of production is justifiably rotation-worthy so long as the four jerseys preceding his in the rotation continue to read Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin/Sanchez.

But they aren’t any longer. With Scherzer out for a couple of weeks, the Nationals have turned to Joe Ross – and he’s been a revelation.

Nationals’ Joe Ross Returns

Earning the return

As late as the trade deadline, the idea of Ross making a significant appearance again for the Nationals seemed laughable. It simply wasn’t conceivable that the Nats could be foolish enough to entrust further innings to this guy – let alone have him take the rotation spot of team MVP and a future Hall-of-Famer.

But here’s the twist: he’s been great! Ross gave up his first run in three starts on Tuesday, ending a 17 1/3 scoreless inning streak since taking Scherzer’s spot in the rotation.

Ross is 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in 18 innings over that span. Maybe there’s some residual magic left in Scherzer’s wake, and when he returns, Ross will turn back into a pumpkin. But for now, he looks….comfortable?

The question here is consistency. Is Ross the guy with a 9.85 ERA in 24+ innings? Or the guy with a 0.50 ERA in 18 innings?

In baseball as in fairy tales, if one offering looks too hot, and another too cold, somewhere in the middle is probably jussssssst right. Say, a 5.91 ERA/4.88 FIP in 42+ innings, which is where Ross’ overall numbers stand today.

Nationals’ Joe Ross Returns

How is he doing it?

Maybe Ross’ ceiling is where he is now, a competent if inconsistent fifth starter.

But there is still the lingering promise of Ross’ early career that presupposes a higher ceiling. And there’s the eye test. Mirror, mirror on the wall…who’s disgusting?

I know this comparison will seem vulgar after three starts that, frankly, weren’t even all that great before Tuesday considering the control issues. But Ross reminds me a lot of another disgusting, one-time fifth starter: Jake Arrieta.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Both Arrieta and Ross throw a power sinker, but these days Arrieta really leans on it. As the rest of the league has turned to the high-rising fastball, Arrieta has ditched it completely. Neither Ross nor Arrieta have much spin to their four-seamer, so they might not get the rising action that makes that pitch so effective.

Still, Ross goes to the four-seamer almost as often as he does the sinker. Via Statcast, Ross throws the sinker 35.1% of the time to 28.6% for his fastball.

It might be that he shouldn’t.

When Arrieta was struggling to make a rotation in Baltimore, he relied on his fastball too. Only when Arrieta started working with Chris Bosio in Chicago did he start to throw his sinker and fastball in equal proportions. When he made the sinker his primary pitch – throwing it 33.1% of the time versus the fastball at 18% – Arrieta won the Cy Young with a 1.77 ERA.

Since his triumphant return to the rotation, Ross, too, has pushed the sinker. Last night, he threw 46 sinkers (50%) to only 11 fastballs (12%). Ross made 278 pitches to get through these last 18 innings with sinker usage (50%) far outpacing the four-seam fastball (18%).

His fastball usage declined ever-so-slightly each time out, 21.8% to 20.6% to 11.1% on Tuesday. That’s a much different usage rate than we saw from Ross earlier this year – and a good sign for the Nationals.

For Arrieta the sinker was a revelation, but for Ross a return to his roots. Only since returning from Tommy John has he leaned so hard on the four-seamer. Over these past three starts, however, Joe Ross‘ sinker has returned to Nats Park, and it’s disgusting.